Severe Storms

MD 0370 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WRN INTO MIDDLE TN...CNTRL AND ERN KY...SRN OH...NWRN W VA...SWRN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of wrn into middle TN...cntrl and ern KY...srn OH...nwrn W VA...swrn PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 030405Z - 030600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with a vigorous, organized convective system spreading toward the Allegheny Plateau, and into central Kentucky and middle Tennessee, may be slow to diminish overnight. One or two additional severe weather watches might be needed. DISCUSSION...To the northeast of the east central Kentucky Bluegrass, boundary-layer instability remains rather limited, and is not expected to improve much overnight. However, the most intense south to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric jet core (including 60-80+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer) is in the process of shifting northeast of the Mid South, toward the upper Ohio Valley. Although a leading MCV has recently become more ill-defined across western Ohio, several others continue to evolve within the the convective system trailing southwestward into the Mid South. The severe weather potential is probably past peak, but the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes may be slow to diminish overnight. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH... MEG... LAT...LON 39248346 40438238 40948086 40537936 38088270 36538553 35138902 39248346 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LEX TO 25 SSE LUK TO 40 SE DAY TO 30 SW MFD TO 30 W CLE TO 40 NNW CLE. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...IWX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC023-135-161-201-030740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRACKEN LEWIS MASON ROBERTSON OHC001-005-015-035-041-045-047-049-071-073-075-083-089-093-097- 103-117-129-131-139-141-145-169-030740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHLAND BROWN CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HIGHLAND HOCKING HOLMES KNOX LICKING LORAIN MADISON MEDINA MORROW PICKAWAY PIKE RICHLAND ROSS SCIOTO WAYNE Read more

WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LEX TO 25 SSE LUK TO 40 SE DAY TO 30 SW MFD TO 30 W CLE TO 40 NNW CLE. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...IWX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC023-135-161-201-030740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRACKEN LEWIS MASON ROBERTSON OHC001-005-015-035-041-045-047-049-071-073-075-083-089-093-097- 103-117-129-131-139-141-145-169-030740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHLAND BROWN CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HIGHLAND HOCKING HOLMES KNOX LICKING LORAIN MADISON MEDINA MORROW PICKAWAY PIKE RICHLAND ROSS SCIOTO WAYNE Read more

WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LEX TO 25 SSE LUK TO 40 SE DAY TO 30 SW MFD TO 30 W CLE TO 40 NNW CLE. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...IWX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC023-135-161-201-030740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRACKEN LEWIS MASON ROBERTSON OHC001-005-015-035-041-045-047-049-071-073-075-083-089-093-097- 103-117-129-131-139-141-145-169-030740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHLAND BROWN CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HIGHLAND HOCKING HOLMES KNOX LICKING LORAIN MADISON MEDINA MORROW PICKAWAY PIKE RICHLAND ROSS SCIOTO WAYNE Read more

WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LEX TO 25 SSE LUK TO 40 SE DAY TO 30 SW MFD TO 30 W CLE TO 40 NNW CLE. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...IWX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC023-135-161-201-030740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRACKEN LEWIS MASON ROBERTSON OHC001-005-015-035-041-045-047-049-071-073-075-083-089-093-097- 103-117-129-131-139-141-145-169-030740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHLAND BROWN CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HIGHLAND HOCKING HOLMES KNOX LICKING LORAIN MADISON MEDINA MORROW PICKAWAY PIKE RICHLAND ROSS SCIOTO WAYNE Read more

WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LEX TO 25 SSE LUK TO 40 SE DAY TO 30 SW MFD TO 30 W CLE TO 40 NNW CLE. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...IWX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC023-135-161-201-030740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRACKEN LEWIS MASON ROBERTSON OHC001-005-015-035-041-045-047-049-071-073-075-083-089-093-097- 103-117-129-131-139-141-145-169-030740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHLAND BROWN CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HIGHLAND HOCKING HOLMES KNOX LICKING LORAIN MADISON MEDINA MORROW PICKAWAY PIKE RICHLAND ROSS SCIOTO WAYNE Read more

WW 103 TORNADO IN KY OH LE 030115Z - 030800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 915 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana North Central Kentucky Western and Central Ohio Lake Erie * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 915 PM until 400 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of intense thunderstorms over western Indiana will track eastward tonight across the watch area. Damaging winds are the main concern, but some hail and a few tornadoes are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Toledo OH to 60 miles southwest of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 99...WW 100...WW 102... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more