Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE LFT TO 5 NW MCB TO 45 NW PIB TO 45 WNW MEI TO 35 SW CBM TO 20 NE CBM TO 30 NNE MSL. ..THORNTON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-007-009-013-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-035-037-039- 041-043-047-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-071-073-075-079-083-085- 089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-160640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BIBB BLOUNT BUTLER CALHOUN CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ESCAMBIA ETOWAH FAYETTE GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE LFT TO 5 NW MCB TO 45 NW PIB TO 45 WNW MEI TO 35 SW CBM TO 20 NE CBM TO 30 NNE MSL. ..THORNTON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-007-009-013-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-035-037-039- 041-043-047-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-071-073-075-079-083-085- 089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-160640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BIBB BLOUNT BUTLER CALHOUN CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ESCAMBIA ETOWAH FAYETTE GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MSL TO 45 SSW BNA TO 10 NE BNA TO 35 E BWG TO 50 SSW LEX. ..THORNTON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-045-053-057-169-171-207-160640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CASEY CLINTON CUMBERLAND METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL TNC003-027-055-087-111-117-149-159-165-169-189-160640- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CLAY GILES JACKSON MACON MARSHALL RUTHERFORD SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MSL TO 45 SSW BNA TO 10 NE BNA TO 35 E BWG TO 50 SSW LEX. ..THORNTON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-045-053-057-169-171-207-160640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CASEY CLINTON CUMBERLAND METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL TNC003-027-055-087-111-117-149-159-165-169-189-160640- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CLAY GILES JACKSON MACON MARSHALL RUTHERFORD SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MSL TO 45 SSW BNA TO 10 NE BNA TO 35 E BWG TO 50 SSW LEX. ..THORNTON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-045-053-057-169-171-207-160640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CASEY CLINTON CUMBERLAND METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL TNC003-027-055-087-111-117-149-159-165-169-189-160640- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CLAY GILES JACKSON MACON MARSHALL RUTHERFORD SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MSL TO 45 SSW BNA TO 10 NE BNA TO 35 E BWG TO 50 SSW LEX. ..THORNTON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-045-053-057-169-171-207-160640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CASEY CLINTON CUMBERLAND METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL TNC003-027-055-087-111-117-149-159-165-169-189-160640- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CLAY GILES JACKSON MACON MARSHALL RUTHERFORD SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more