Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE LUK TO 20 WNW UNI TO 5 S ZZV TO 30 SSW CAK TO 25 NW YNG TO 25 WNW ERI. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-089-127-030840- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER GREENUP LAWRENCE OHC007-009-013-019-029-053-059-067-079-081-087-099-105-111-115- 121-155-157-163-167-030840- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA GALLIA GUERNSEY HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MAHONING MEIGS MONROE MORGAN NOBLE TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS VINTON WASHINGTON PAC085-030840- Read more

WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CKV TO 5 SW BWG TO 35 SW LEX TO 15 NE LEX TO 55 SE LUK. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...PAH...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-077-030840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT LAUDERDALE KYC001-003-009-011-017-021-045-049-053-057-063-065-067-069-079- 087-109-113-125-129-137-147-151-155-165-167-169-171-173-175-181- 189-197-199-203-205-207-213-227-231-237-030840- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BATH BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREEN JACKSON JESSAMINE LAUREL LEE LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN Read more

MD 0372 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 104... FOR FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MS INTO PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0372 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...far north-central MS into portions of Middle TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 104... Valid 030543Z - 030715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of strong tornado potential may persist another 1-2 hours across north-central Mississippi into portions of western and Middle Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Two intense supercells with confirmed tornado debris signatures are ongoing across portions of the MCD area. This activity is occurring within an intense low-level jet near 60 kt, aiding in enhanced 0-1 km SRH near 300 m2/s2 per region VWP data. This activity is also within the corridor of max effective STP (near 2-4). The storms have produced rotational velocity signatures greater than 50-60 kt over the past 30 minutes. These supercells within the current environment, coupled with radar trends, suggest a strong tornado risk will persist downstream for the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG... LAT...LON 34829009 35828827 36158755 35958740 35378774 34478943 34479008 34599024 34829009 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Downstream of a highly amplified large-scale trough centered on the Southwest, a belt of strong south-southwesterly flow and embedded midlevel speed maximum will shift eastward into TX. While a weak surface cyclone and related breezy conditions will persist over parts of southern/central NM, the meridional orientation and displacement of the midlevel jet will limit fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Downstream of a highly amplified large-scale trough centered on the Southwest, a belt of strong south-southwesterly flow and embedded midlevel speed maximum will shift eastward into TX. While a weak surface cyclone and related breezy conditions will persist over parts of southern/central NM, the meridional orientation and displacement of the midlevel jet will limit fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more