Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0371 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Pecos Valley and Edwards Plateau into portions of the Texas South Plains and Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 030426Z - 030630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity posing increasing potential for severe hail overnight may begin to increase as early as 1-3 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a significant short wave perturbation digging through the Southwest, large-scale ascent, rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, appears to be underway. The environment remains relatively dry, but high based convection appears to be developing to the northwest and north of the San Angelo area. Although inhibition remains sizable, based on forecast soundings, models suggest that the lift, coupled with increasing elevated moisture return, may begin to contribute to scattered thunderstorm development by 06-08Z, if not earlier. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear in the convective layer, some of this may begin to pose increasing potential for severe hail overnight. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30670152 32490157 32759868 31809831 30240011 29580064 30670152 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0106 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0106 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado potential. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells with tornado potential. Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal, elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into central TX. ...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley... Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will favor hail potential. During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector, which will remain very moist. Afternoon supercells are anticipated over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the front with access to unstable air mass. Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into central TX. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado potential. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells with tornado potential. Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal, elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into central TX. ...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley... Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will favor hail potential. During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector, which will remain very moist. Afternoon supercells are anticipated over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the front with access to unstable air mass. Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into central TX. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado potential. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells with tornado potential. Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal, elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into central TX. ...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley... Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will favor hail potential. During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector, which will remain very moist. Afternoon supercells are anticipated over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the front with access to unstable air mass. Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into central TX. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado potential. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells with tornado potential. Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal, elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into central TX. ...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley... Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will favor hail potential. During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector, which will remain very moist. Afternoon supercells are anticipated over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the front with access to unstable air mass. Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into central TX. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado potential. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells with tornado potential. Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal, elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into central TX. ...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley... Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will favor hail potential. During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector, which will remain very moist. Afternoon supercells are anticipated over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the front with access to unstable air mass. Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into central TX. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado potential. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells with tornado potential. Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal, elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into central TX. ...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley... Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will favor hail potential. During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector, which will remain very moist. Afternoon supercells are anticipated over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the front with access to unstable air mass. Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into central TX. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more