Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

MD 0369 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 102...98... FOR PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN...WRN AND CENTRAL KY...ADJACENT SERN IN...SWRN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0369 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of wrn and middle TN...wrn and central KY...adjacent sern IN...swrn OH Concerning...Tornado Watch 102...98... Valid 030253Z - 030500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 102, 98 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for strong, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, appears likely to persist with a line of storms overspreading the Ohio River vicinity, including the Greater Louisville into Cincinnati vicinities, through midnight-1 AM EDT. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of additional watches to the east of Tornado Watches 102 and 103. DISCUSSION...Northeast of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, through the lower Ohio River vicinity, boundary-layer instability remains weaker due to more marginal boundary-layer dew points and weak mid/upper-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that CAPE (perhaps on the order of 500-1000 J/kg) may be largely confined to the 850-500 mb layer, perhaps aided by steeper lapse rates associated with a remnant elevated mixed-layer. Given the intense lower/mid-tropospheric jet streak (including 60-80+ kt southwesterly within this layer) now overspreading this region, profiles still appear conducive to the downward transfer of damaging gusts to the surface in the heavier rain cores. Continuing tornadic potential remains more unclear with stronger convection becoming undercut by the surface cold pool. However, given a saturated near surface-layer with at least moist adiabatic lapse rates, and the strong to extreme nature of the low-level shear, meso-vortices with enhanced wind damage, and perhaps tornado, potential may persist into the 04-06Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 37508739 38628634 39158547 39048393 37078553 35028891 35478959 37508739 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0105 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0105 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0105 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UOX TO 20 NNE LLQ TO 10 ENE MEM TO 25 NE MKL TO HOP. REMAINDER OF WATCH 98 NOT INCLUDED IN NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 104 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. ..KERR..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-041-079-107-030500- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS DESHA LINCOLN PHILLIPS KYC035-047-177-219-221-030500- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG MSC003-009-013-027-033-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-135-137-139- 141-143-145-161-030500- MS Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UOX TO 20 NNE LLQ TO 10 ENE MEM TO 25 NE MKL TO HOP. REMAINDER OF WATCH 98 NOT INCLUDED IN NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 104 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. ..KERR..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-041-079-107-030500- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS DESHA LINCOLN PHILLIPS KYC035-047-177-219-221-030500- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG MSC003-009-013-027-033-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-135-137-139- 141-143-145-161-030500- MS Read more