Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Saturday morning to the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. As this trough becomes negatively tilted after 00Z, the surface low will rapidly deepen by 10+ mb as it moves from central Arkansas to northeast Ohio. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low and sharpen through the evening before advancing east during the late evening and into the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An expansive region of strengthening low-level flow will advance a broad warm sector northward across the Gulf Coast states Saturday morning. North of this warm front within a 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms are expected. Weak instability and shear should result in mostly sub-severe storms, but isolated large hail may be possible. Expect persistent thunderstorm activity along the diffuse cold front from far East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the morning to early afternoon with mostly sub-severe storms. However, richer theta-e will interact with the frontal zone by mid-to-late afternoon which should result in deeper, more robust updrafts. In addition, stronger mid-level flow will start to overspread the warm sector, promoting stronger deep-layer shear. Supercells are anticipated from southeast Arkansas to southwest Tennessee by this time with a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. However, this window of more discrete storm mode will likely be fairly limited as the cold front starts to surge east around 00Z and a squall line develops. The environment ahead of this squall line will remain favorable for severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes through the evening. Eventually this squall line will encounter weaker instability across central/eastern Tennessee and Alabama and the severe weather threat will likely start to wane. One exception may be across far southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and into the Florida Panhandle. After 06Z, some influence of the approaching mid-level vorticity maximum could result in more robust convection across this region where greater instability will remain. The low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across the region during this timeframe with STP values peaking perhaps around 2 to 3. 12Z CAM guidance suggests the potential for some pre-frontal development late in the period, but they are not overly strong at this time. If more robust pre-frontal storms become likely, in addition to the QLCS threat associated with the squall line, greater tornado probabilities could be needed across this area. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Saturday morning to the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. As this trough becomes negatively tilted after 00Z, the surface low will rapidly deepen by 10+ mb as it moves from central Arkansas to northeast Ohio. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low and sharpen through the evening before advancing east during the late evening and into the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An expansive region of strengthening low-level flow will advance a broad warm sector northward across the Gulf Coast states Saturday morning. North of this warm front within a 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms are expected. Weak instability and shear should result in mostly sub-severe storms, but isolated large hail may be possible. Expect persistent thunderstorm activity along the diffuse cold front from far East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the morning to early afternoon with mostly sub-severe storms. However, richer theta-e will interact with the frontal zone by mid-to-late afternoon which should result in deeper, more robust updrafts. In addition, stronger mid-level flow will start to overspread the warm sector, promoting stronger deep-layer shear. Supercells are anticipated from southeast Arkansas to southwest Tennessee by this time with a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. However, this window of more discrete storm mode will likely be fairly limited as the cold front starts to surge east around 00Z and a squall line develops. The environment ahead of this squall line will remain favorable for severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes through the evening. Eventually this squall line will encounter weaker instability across central/eastern Tennessee and Alabama and the severe weather threat will likely start to wane. One exception may be across far southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and into the Florida Panhandle. After 06Z, some influence of the approaching mid-level vorticity maximum could result in more robust convection across this region where greater instability will remain. The low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across the region during this timeframe with STP values peaking perhaps around 2 to 3. 12Z CAM guidance suggests the potential for some pre-frontal development late in the period, but they are not overly strong at this time. If more robust pre-frontal storms become likely, in addition to the QLCS threat associated with the squall line, greater tornado probabilities could be needed across this area. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Trans Pecos. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Trans Pecos. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Trans Pecos. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Trans Pecos. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Trans Pecos. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Trans Pecos. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Trans Pecos. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025 Read more