Severe Storms

WW 101 TORNADO IL MO 022120Z - 030000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West Central Illinois East Central Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms will continue to track eastward across the St Louis metro area and vicinity through the next few hours, posing a risk of all severe hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northeast of Alton IL to 45 miles south southwest of Farmington MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 99...WW 100... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361 ..WEINMAN..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-053-063-075-079- 091-101-105-107-113-115-129-139-147-159-167-173-183-197- 022340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS JASPER KANKAKEE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MENARD MOULTRIE PIATT RICHLAND SANGAMON SHELBY VERMILION WILL INC007-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-045-049-053-055-057-063-067- 073-081-083-085-089-091-093-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-119- 121-127-131-133-149-153-157-159-165-167-169-171-181-022340- IN Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361 ..WEINMAN..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-053-063-075-079- 091-101-105-107-113-115-129-139-147-159-167-173-183-197- 022340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS JASPER KANKAKEE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MENARD MOULTRIE PIATT RICHLAND SANGAMON SHELBY VERMILION WILL INC007-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-045-049-053-055-057-063-067- 073-081-083-085-089-091-093-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-119- 121-127-131-133-149-153-157-159-165-167-169-171-181-022340- IN Read more

WW 99 TORNADO IL IN 022015Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 99 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Illinois Western and Central Indiana * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and increase initially across central/northeast Illinois late this afternoon, and steadily progress east-northeastward into eastern Illinois and much of western/central/northern Indiana by evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Decatur IL to 45 miles north northeast of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 97...WW 98... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0359 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 98... FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Northern Mississippi into western Tennessee and western Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 98... Valid 022039Z - 022245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of strong/intense tornado potential is evident in northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. DISCUSSION...A corridor of greater tornado risk becoming evident in northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. Several discrete storms have developed in an environment supportive of strong/intense tornadoes. KPAH and KNQA VAD show ample low-level hodograph curvature (250-325 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). With the low-level jet strength forecast to increase over the coming hours, the environment will become even more favorable with time. ..Wendt.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34358843 34008929 33879030 33929062 35129041 35899001 36518946 36818914 36878869 36768784 36268772 35308806 34358843 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ARKLATEX VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0358 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...ArkLaTex Vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022018Z - 022215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Portions of the ArkLaTex may see an increase of severe risk later this afternoon into the evening. The timing of the watch is not certain. All severe hazards appear possible, particularly with any discrete storms. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and some shower activity has been noted recently within the ArkLaTex region. MLCAPE has increased to 2500-3500 J/kg where insolation has been more abundant. Strong shear will promote organized supercells capable of all severe hazards. The KSHV VAD shows less SRH than areas farther northeast and the low-level jet should be shifting farther east this evening. That being said, there will be a window late this afternoon/early evening where a strong tornado could occur with discrete storms that track northeast into greater SRH. A watch will need to be considered for parts of northwest Louisiana into southwest Arkansas. Along the front in northeast Texas, convection has generally been anafrontal and only occasionally pulsed in intensity. Given the primary shortwave trough lifting away from the area with time, there may not be much push of the front southeastward. Furthermore, cloud cover has been present most of today and hindered overall destabilization. It is unclear how much severe activity will occur in northeast Texas given these factors. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 32239522 32479576 33159599 33539583 33769541 33829513 34019469 33839398 33179281 32979229 32519220 32099238 31909298 31909377 31939433 32239522 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-021-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-053-055-063-067- 069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-121-123-135-145-147- 022240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLAY CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SHARP WHITE WOODRUFF ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-022240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-021-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-053-055-063-067- 069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-121-123-135-145-147- 022240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLAY CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SHARP WHITE WOODRUFF ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-022240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0357 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Illinois and western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 021943Z - 022145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity and move into the area this afternoon posing a threat of tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind. There is some uncertainty on the exact timing of the threat, but a tornado watch is likely in the next two hours. DISCUSSION...With an ejecting midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone to the northwest of the region, the warm front has continued to lift northward this afternoon. As a result, filtered insolation and moisture advection have resulted in destabilization, with the latest mesoanalysis indicating 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE nosing into central Illinois. Given the strong low-level flow (75 kts at 2-km AGL per 19Z ILX sounding and recent VWPs) and shear, storms will pose a threat of strong tornadoes and severe winds. Convective initiation within the warm sector does not appear imminent, so storms will likely move into the area from the south-southwest, where storms have rapidly intensified across Missouri in the past hour. Convective mode will likely be messy with a large component of deep-layer shear aligned with the primary axis of convection oriented south-southwest to north-northeast. With time, there is some expectation that storms will cluster and grow upscale resulting in an increasing severe wind threat. Given the threat of significant severe weather (all hazards) during the late afternoon and evening hours, a tornado watch is likely in the next two hours. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39919026 40678956 40808827 40718694 40148655 39098682 38638716 38218766 37978795 37958853 38298920 38508983 39919026 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more