Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An upper trough will migrate east across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow, characterized by a 500 mb jet streak around 80-100 kt, will overspread the region, mainly near/after 00z. As stronger height falls approach the ArkLaTex and MS Valley, a low-level jet greater than 50 kt will develop from LA into TN/KY. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to march northward, reaching as far north as western TN. Boundary-layer moisture into the mid-60s F is expected to remain south of the MS/TN border. A surface low is expected to deepen during the afternoon into the nighttime hours as it tracks from AR to OH. A cold front attendant to the low will sweep east/southeast from late afternoon into early Sunday. Warm advection across this boundary will result in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms from east TX into the Lower OH Valley for much of the day. This will limit the northward extent of the advancing warm sector, with a warm front expected to stall across TN into northern GA. Large-scale ascent is not expected to overspread the region until evening, so open warm sector convection likely will remain limited diurnally. By late afternoon, more robust convection is expected to develop along the sharpening cold front from eastern AR into east TX/western LA within a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and strong vertical shear. A QLCS producing a swath of damaging gusts is likely to move across the region through the overnight hours. Favorable low-level shear, characterized by enlarged, looping hodographs suggests tornadoes also will be possible with mesovortex formation along the line, in addition to any line-embedded supercells. A more conditional threat exists with any supercells that can develop ahead of the line in the open warm sector, something that remains uncertain at this time. Any cells that do develop ahead of the line will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts, and could also pose a risk for increasing tornado potential as they interact with the QLCS. The north and east extent of the severe risk areas remains a bit uncertain, in part due to cold air damming into the southern Appalachians and how much this is able to erode. A general decrease in boundary-layer moisture and instability is expected with northeast extent during the overnight hours. However, the expected intense deep-layer wind field will likely maintain some damaging wind and tornado risk into AL and perhaps parts of western GA. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An upper trough will migrate east across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow, characterized by a 500 mb jet streak around 80-100 kt, will overspread the region, mainly near/after 00z. As stronger height falls approach the ArkLaTex and MS Valley, a low-level jet greater than 50 kt will develop from LA into TN/KY. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to march northward, reaching as far north as western TN. Boundary-layer moisture into the mid-60s F is expected to remain south of the MS/TN border. A surface low is expected to deepen during the afternoon into the nighttime hours as it tracks from AR to OH. A cold front attendant to the low will sweep east/southeast from late afternoon into early Sunday. Warm advection across this boundary will result in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms from east TX into the Lower OH Valley for much of the day. This will limit the northward extent of the advancing warm sector, with a warm front expected to stall across TN into northern GA. Large-scale ascent is not expected to overspread the region until evening, so open warm sector convection likely will remain limited diurnally. By late afternoon, more robust convection is expected to develop along the sharpening cold front from eastern AR into east TX/western LA within a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and strong vertical shear. A QLCS producing a swath of damaging gusts is likely to move across the region through the overnight hours. Favorable low-level shear, characterized by enlarged, looping hodographs suggests tornadoes also will be possible with mesovortex formation along the line, in addition to any line-embedded supercells. A more conditional threat exists with any supercells that can develop ahead of the line in the open warm sector, something that remains uncertain at this time. Any cells that do develop ahead of the line will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts, and could also pose a risk for increasing tornado potential as they interact with the QLCS. The north and east extent of the severe risk areas remains a bit uncertain, in part due to cold air damming into the southern Appalachians and how much this is able to erode. A general decrease in boundary-layer moisture and instability is expected with northeast extent during the overnight hours. However, the expected intense deep-layer wind field will likely maintain some damaging wind and tornado risk into AL and perhaps parts of western GA. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more