Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-035-049-059-077-081-083-085-093-095-097-113-121-133- 139-143-147-151-181-193-207-217-221-231-235-237-251-253-257-307- 327-333-337-349-353-363-367-397-399-411-413-417-425-429-431-439- 441-447-451-497-503-030940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COKE COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO COOKE DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FANNIN FISHER GRAYSON HAMILTON HASKELL HILL HOOD HUNT IRION JACK JOHNSON JONES KAUFMAN MCCULLOCH MENARD MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS STERLING TARRANT TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN WISE YOUNG Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE LEX TO 15 SW UNI TO 20 W PKB TO 20 SSW HLG TO 30 N PIT. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-089-127-030940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER GREENUP LAWRENCE OHC053-087-105-167-030940- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLIA LAWRENCE MEIGS WASHINGTON PAC003-007-059-125-030940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY BEAVER GREENE WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MKL TO 35 S CKV TO 15 SE BWG TO 60 SW LEX TO 35 NW JKL TO 35 WNW HTS. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...PAH...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-077-030940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT LAUDERDALE KYC001-003-009-025-045-051-053-057-063-065-079-087-109-115-121- 125-129-137-147-151-153-165-169-171-175-189-197-199-203-205-207- 231-235-237-030940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BREATHITT CASEY CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD GREEN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAUREL LEE LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN MENIFEE METCALFE MONROE MORGAN OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more