Severe Storms

MD 0104 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10... FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE...FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0104 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Alabama...Florida Panhandle...Georgia...Southeast Tennessee...Far Western North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 10... Valid 160651Z - 160845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threats for wind damage and a few tornadoes will move quickly eastward across into western and northern Georgia, and across the remainder of southern and eastern Alabama during the early morning. New weather watch will be necessary ahead of the ongoing line. DISCUSSION...A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley over the next few hours, as a surface low moves into the central Appalachians. An associated front is located over the central Gulf Coast states, with an organized squall line located ahead of the front. A narrow corridor of instability is analyzed ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. In addition, RAP analysis shows a strong low to mid-level jet from eastern Mississippi northeastward into the southern Appalachians. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be in 65 to 80 knot range along this corridor and storm-relative helicity is very strong. This will continue to support a widespread severe threat over the next few hours. Severe gusts will be likely along the leading edge of the squall line and a few tornadoes also possible. ..Broyles.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... LAT...LON 34728355 35078390 35238439 35298503 35128586 34488656 33398730 32278817 31678850 31228835 30898805 30648741 30618652 30828569 31678489 32228456 33938362 34728355 Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0012 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ASD TO 40 WNW GZH TO 45 N MGM TO 10 NNW RMG. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-019-027-029-035-037-039-041-051-053- 081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-123-160940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA FLC033-091-113-160940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ASD TO 40 WNW GZH TO 45 N MGM TO 10 NNW RMG. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-019-027-029-035-037-039-041-051-053- 081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-123-160940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA FLC033-091-113-160940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ASD TO 40 WNW GZH TO 45 N MGM TO 10 NNW RMG. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-019-027-029-035-037-039-041-051-053- 081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-123-160940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA FLC033-091-113-160940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ASD TO 40 WNW GZH TO 45 N MGM TO 10 NNW RMG. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-019-027-029-035-037-039-041-051-053- 081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-123-160940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA FLC033-091-113-160940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ASD TO 40 WNW GZH TO 45 N MGM TO 10 NNW RMG. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-019-027-029-035-037-039-041-051-053- 081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-123-160940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA FLC033-091-113-160940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ASD TO 40 WNW GZH TO 45 N MGM TO 10 NNW RMG. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-019-027-029-035-037-039-041-051-053- 081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-123-160940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA FLC033-091-113-160940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA Read more

WW 10 TORNADO AL FL LA MS TN CW 160310Z - 161000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 10 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 910 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Southeast Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Southern Middle Tennessee Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 910 PM until 400 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms will overspread the watch area through the early morning hours. Very strong winds aloft ahead of the line will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles southwest of Gulfport MS to 25 miles north of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 8...WW 9... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E GAD TO 20 SSE CHA TO 35 NE CHA. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC015-021-023-035-045-053-055-057-063-067-077-079-081-089-091- 093-097-113-115-121-123-129-143-145-149-151-153-159-169-171-193- 197-199-207-213-215-217-223-225-227-231-233-235-247-249-255-259- 261-263-269-285-289-293-307-313-315-160940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW BIBB BLECKLEY BUTTS CARROLL CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLAYTON COBB COWETA CRAWFORD CRISP DEKALB DODGE DOOLY DOUGLAS FAYETTE FLOYD FULTON GILMER GORDON HARALSON HARRIS HEARD HENRY HOUSTON JASPER JONES LAMAR MACON MARION MERIWETHER MONROE MURRAY MUSCOGEE NEWTON PAULDING PEACH PICKENS PIKE POLK PULASKI ROCKDALE SCHLEY SPALDING STEWART SUMTER TALBOT TAYLOR TROUP Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more