Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more