Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms remains off the southeastern LA Coast this morning. This activity will track towards, and eventually reach, the west-central FL Peninsula later this afternoon. Nearly all guidance shows rapid weakening of the convective cluster as it moves over cooler shelf waters and approaches the FL Coast. The 12Z TBW sounding, along with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings this afternoon from Tampa Bay and vicinity, show rather poor low/mid-level lapse rates, which should hamper development of any more than weak instability inland. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for severe wind gusts. Still, an occasional strong gust may occur as the cluster weakens. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms remains off the southeastern LA Coast this morning. This activity will track towards, and eventually reach, the west-central FL Peninsula later this afternoon. Nearly all guidance shows rapid weakening of the convective cluster as it moves over cooler shelf waters and approaches the FL Coast. The 12Z TBW sounding, along with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings this afternoon from Tampa Bay and vicinity, show rather poor low/mid-level lapse rates, which should hamper development of any more than weak instability inland. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for severe wind gusts. Still, an occasional strong gust may occur as the cluster weakens. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms remains off the southeastern LA Coast this morning. This activity will track towards, and eventually reach, the west-central FL Peninsula later this afternoon. Nearly all guidance shows rapid weakening of the convective cluster as it moves over cooler shelf waters and approaches the FL Coast. The 12Z TBW sounding, along with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings this afternoon from Tampa Bay and vicinity, show rather poor low/mid-level lapse rates, which should hamper development of any more than weak instability inland. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for severe wind gusts. Still, an occasional strong gust may occur as the cluster weakens. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms remains off the southeastern LA Coast this morning. This activity will track towards, and eventually reach, the west-central FL Peninsula later this afternoon. Nearly all guidance shows rapid weakening of the convective cluster as it moves over cooler shelf waters and approaches the FL Coast. The 12Z TBW sounding, along with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings this afternoon from Tampa Bay and vicinity, show rather poor low/mid-level lapse rates, which should hamper development of any more than weak instability inland. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for severe wind gusts. Still, an occasional strong gust may occur as the cluster weakens. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms remains off the southeastern LA Coast this morning. This activity will track towards, and eventually reach, the west-central FL Peninsula later this afternoon. Nearly all guidance shows rapid weakening of the convective cluster as it moves over cooler shelf waters and approaches the FL Coast. The 12Z TBW sounding, along with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings this afternoon from Tampa Bay and vicinity, show rather poor low/mid-level lapse rates, which should hamper development of any more than weak instability inland. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for severe wind gusts. Still, an occasional strong gust may occur as the cluster weakens. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms remains off the southeastern LA Coast this morning. This activity will track towards, and eventually reach, the west-central FL Peninsula later this afternoon. Nearly all guidance shows rapid weakening of the convective cluster as it moves over cooler shelf waters and approaches the FL Coast. The 12Z TBW sounding, along with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings this afternoon from Tampa Bay and vicinity, show rather poor low/mid-level lapse rates, which should hamper development of any more than weak instability inland. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for severe wind gusts. Still, an occasional strong gust may occur as the cluster weakens. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/19/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much potential for thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast across the Rockies. This will result in lee low development across the southern Plains. Forecast guidance is in fairly good agreement even at this extended range that a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport modest moisture northward ahead of a cold front from the ArkLaTex into the Deep South by Day 8/Wed. While severe potential appears limited by weak moisture return, thunderstorm potential is likely to increase late Day 7/Tue into Day 8/Wed. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much potential for thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast across the Rockies. This will result in lee low development across the southern Plains. Forecast guidance is in fairly good agreement even at this extended range that a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport modest moisture northward ahead of a cold front from the ArkLaTex into the Deep South by Day 8/Wed. While severe potential appears limited by weak moisture return, thunderstorm potential is likely to increase late Day 7/Tue into Day 8/Wed. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much potential for thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast across the Rockies. This will result in lee low development across the southern Plains. Forecast guidance is in fairly good agreement even at this extended range that a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport modest moisture northward ahead of a cold front from the ArkLaTex into the Deep South by Day 8/Wed. While severe potential appears limited by weak moisture return, thunderstorm potential is likely to increase late Day 7/Tue into Day 8/Wed. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much potential for thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast across the Rockies. This will result in lee low development across the southern Plains. Forecast guidance is in fairly good agreement even at this extended range that a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport modest moisture northward ahead of a cold front from the ArkLaTex into the Deep South by Day 8/Wed. While severe potential appears limited by weak moisture return, thunderstorm potential is likely to increase late Day 7/Tue into Day 8/Wed. Read more