SPC Apr 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 107 Status Reports

5 months 1 week ago
WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MEM TO 45 ENE MKL TO 40 ESE JKL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384 ..SUPINIE..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC077-107-040140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE PHILLIPS KYC013-095-121-131-133-147-231-235-040140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL HARLAN KNOX LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY WAYNE WHITLEY MSC003-009-013-027-033-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-135-137-139- 141-143-145-161-040140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 109 Status Reports

5 months 1 week ago
WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 109 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384 ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-057-069-073-079-081- 091-095-099-103-139-040140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW HEMPSTEAD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONROE NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC015-017-027-111-119-040140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE UNION WEBSTER Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 Status Reports

5 months 1 week ago
WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N TYR TO 20 SSW FLP. ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-023-029-045-051-053-059-061-063-067-085-097-105-109-115- 117-119-125-129-137-141-145-147-149-040140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE JACKSON LONOKE MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC MD 384

5 months 1 week ago
MD 0384 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 107...109... FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas. northwest Mississippi...and far southwest Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...109... Valid 032339Z - 040115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107, 109 continues. SUMMARY...The primary risk appears to be large hail. While much less likely, damaging winds and/or a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out on a very localized basis. DISCUSSION...Several elevated supercell clusters are tracking northeastward across portions of southern AR and northwest MS -- to the north of a stationary boundary draped across northern MS into far southern AR. The LZK/NQA VWPs continue to sample a very elongated/straight hodograph, with around 60-70 kt of effective shear north of the boundary. This, along with steep midlevel lapse rates atop a cool/stable boundary layer (yielding 2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE), will continue to favor elevated supercell structures capable of producing large hail (generally upwards of 2 inches in diameter). Given the elevated nature of these storms, and limited potential for northward movement of the boundary and related warm sector, the tornado and damaging-wind risks appears low. With that said, if these storms can intercept any localized pockets of surface-based instability north of the boundary, large low-level streamwise vorticity would support a tornado risk. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34169246 34889111 35449017 35538974 35448937 35118910 34738929 34109045 33449220 33529259 33849263 34169246 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC MD 383

5 months 1 week ago
MD 0383 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 107... FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0607 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 107... Valid 032307Z - 040000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues. SUMMARY...Enhanced tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours across portions of middle Tennessee. DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells is ongoing across portions of middle Tennessee, and both of these cells are along a synoptic stationary boundary draped generally east-northeast to west-southwest across the area. These storms are likely surface-based with air ahead of the boundary sufficiently unstable (1000 J/kg MLCAPE per mesoanalysis) and with strong low-level shear (20 kts of 0-1 km shear per regional VWPs). Additionally, the southern of these storms has a history of producing tornadoes and significant (2"+) hail. Thus, these storms have enhanced tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours. Surface moisture decreases to the east, and this may limit the eastward extent of the tornado risk with these storms. ..Supinie.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 35518559 35138635 34868732 34908758 35088772 35398779 35778790 36008769 36308706 36468627 36318581 35988547 35518559 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 107 Status Reports

5 months 1 week ago
WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383 ..SUPINIE..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC077-107-040040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE PHILLIPS KYC013-095-121-131-133-147-231-235-040040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL HARLAN KNOX LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY WAYNE WHITLEY MSC003-009-013-027-033-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-135-137-139- 141-143-145-161-040040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 107

5 months 1 week ago
WW 107 TORNADO AR KY MS TN 031750Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas South-central and Southeast Kentucky Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells are expected to develop this afternoon near a boundary that extends generally southwest-to-northeast across the region. A moist environment and strong low-level shear will support tornado potential aside from damaging winds and hail. The severe/tornado risk could persist well through the evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Memphis TN to 15 miles southeast of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 109 Status Reports

5 months 1 week ago
WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 109 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-057-069-073-079-081- 091-095-099-103-139-040040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW HEMPSTEAD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONROE NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC015-017-027-111-119-040040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE UNION WEBSTER MSC011-133-151-040040- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 109 Status Reports

5 months 1 week ago
WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 109 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-057-069-073-079-081- 091-095-099-103-139-040040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW HEMPSTEAD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONROE NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC015-017-027-111-119-040040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE UNION WEBSTER MSC011-133-151-040040- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 109

5 months 1 week ago
WW 109 TORNADO AR LA MS TX 031910Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Northwest Mississippi Northeast Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...As the atmosphere continues to destabilize, severe storms including supercells are expected to develop near a frontal boundary that extends generally southwest-northeast across the region. Any storms that develop near/south of the boundary could pose a tornado risk, aside from large hail and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles south of Tyler TX to 50 miles north of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 107...WW 108... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC MD 381

5 months 1 week ago
MD 0381 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0381 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Portions of West Virginia and northern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032031Z - 032300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms moving into West Virginia may pose a threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, although a watch appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Despite midlevel height rises across the area, low-level warm-air advection continues to support thunderstorm development across eastern Kentucky. The storms are expected to continue moving eastward across West Virginia, though high clouds and poorer boundary-layer moisture (per 18Z RNK sounding) have limited destabilization. With low-level flow (and attendant warm advection) forecast to increase into the evening, there is a threat for the convection to persist. Given the sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear across the area, these storms will have the potential to produce damaging winds, hail, and a tornado. Trends will be monitored through the evening, but a watch appears to be unlikely at this time. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL... LAT...LON 37968246 38258201 38258094 38437951 39007785 38357744 37577755 37427861 37207996 37208091 37158158 37408235 37968246 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 Status Reports

5 months 1 week ago
WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-023-029-045-051-053-059-061-063-067-071-083-085-097-101- 105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-133-137-141-145-147-149- 032340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JOHNSON LOGAN LONOKE MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL OKC089-032340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCURTAIN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 Status Reports

5 months 1 week ago
WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-023-029-045-051-053-059-061-063-067-071-083-085-097-101- 105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-133-137-141-145-147-149- 032340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JOHNSON LOGAN LONOKE MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL OKC089-032340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCURTAIN Read more
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