Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A linear MCS with a parallel rain shield continues to approach the western FL peninsula coastline amid modest buoyancy. A weakening trend is still expected with this line, though the anticipated coverage of lightning flashes warrants the continuance of thunder probabilities. A strong wind gust is possible with the leading edge of the MCS as it reaches the southwestern FL peninsula shoreline later this afternoon. However, overall weakening trends and limited buoyancy suggests stronger wind gusts should be sparse. ..Squitieri.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low situated over the Upper Midwest with a large-scale trough east of the Rockies. Visible-satellite and lightning data show a southwest-northeast oriented linear cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of America immediately ahead of a cold front pushing southeast. This thunderstorm activity will approach the west coast of the FL Peninsula this afternoon. 12 UTC initialized model guidance agrees with earlier model data in the notion of this activity weakening as it moves across the shelf waters and approaches the coast. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for damaging gusts. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will prevail east of the Rockies. Precipitation associated with non-thunderstorms is forecast across the Pacific Northwest moving into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A linear MCS with a parallel rain shield continues to approach the western FL peninsula coastline amid modest buoyancy. A weakening trend is still expected with this line, though the anticipated coverage of lightning flashes warrants the continuance of thunder probabilities. A strong wind gust is possible with the leading edge of the MCS as it reaches the southwestern FL peninsula shoreline later this afternoon. However, overall weakening trends and limited buoyancy suggests stronger wind gusts should be sparse. ..Squitieri.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low situated over the Upper Midwest with a large-scale trough east of the Rockies. Visible-satellite and lightning data show a southwest-northeast oriented linear cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of America immediately ahead of a cold front pushing southeast. This thunderstorm activity will approach the west coast of the FL Peninsula this afternoon. 12 UTC initialized model guidance agrees with earlier model data in the notion of this activity weakening as it moves across the shelf waters and approaches the coast. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for damaging gusts. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will prevail east of the Rockies. Precipitation associated with non-thunderstorms is forecast across the Pacific Northwest moving into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of America. While an upper low is forecast to move across AZ and NM late in the period, little instability is forecast with this system as it drops southeast out of the Four Corners overnight. Given nocturnal timing, lack of heating and minimal destabilization suggest thunderstorms will remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of America. While an upper low is forecast to move across AZ and NM late in the period, little instability is forecast with this system as it drops southeast out of the Four Corners overnight. Given nocturnal timing, lack of heating and minimal destabilization suggest thunderstorms will remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of America. While an upper low is forecast to move across AZ and NM late in the period, little instability is forecast with this system as it drops southeast out of the Four Corners overnight. Given nocturnal timing, lack of heating and minimal destabilization suggest thunderstorms will remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of America. While an upper low is forecast to move across AZ and NM late in the period, little instability is forecast with this system as it drops southeast out of the Four Corners overnight. Given nocturnal timing, lack of heating and minimal destabilization suggest thunderstorms will remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of America. While an upper low is forecast to move across AZ and NM late in the period, little instability is forecast with this system as it drops southeast out of the Four Corners overnight. Given nocturnal timing, lack of heating and minimal destabilization suggest thunderstorms will remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of America. While an upper low is forecast to move across AZ and NM late in the period, little instability is forecast with this system as it drops southeast out of the Four Corners overnight. Given nocturnal timing, lack of heating and minimal destabilization suggest thunderstorms will remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of America. While an upper low is forecast to move across AZ and NM late in the period, little instability is forecast with this system as it drops southeast out of the Four Corners overnight. Given nocturnal timing, lack of heating and minimal destabilization suggest thunderstorms will remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of America. While an upper low is forecast to move across AZ and NM late in the period, little instability is forecast with this system as it drops southeast out of the Four Corners overnight. Given nocturnal timing, lack of heating and minimal destabilization suggest thunderstorms will remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of America. While an upper low is forecast to move across AZ and NM late in the period, little instability is forecast with this system as it drops southeast out of the Four Corners overnight. Given nocturnal timing, lack of heating and minimal destabilization suggest thunderstorms will remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of far eastern AZ and northwest NM. Recent guidance has trended towards stronger wind speeds across the Four Corners region as an upper trough passes over the region tomorrow afternoon. Most deterministic solutions suggest sustained winds will be near 20 mph, and latest HREF guidance shows minimum speeds between 15-20 mph across the region with high probability for RH values between 15-20%. Fuels are not overly favorable for rapid fire spread, but dry conditions through tomorrow coupled with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 5-25% of normal may promote adequate drying of finer fuels to support a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of far eastern AZ and northwest NM. Recent guidance has trended towards stronger wind speeds across the Four Corners region as an upper trough passes over the region tomorrow afternoon. Most deterministic solutions suggest sustained winds will be near 20 mph, and latest HREF guidance shows minimum speeds between 15-20 mph across the region with high probability for RH values between 15-20%. Fuels are not overly favorable for rapid fire spread, but dry conditions through tomorrow coupled with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 5-25% of normal may promote adequate drying of finer fuels to support a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of far eastern AZ and northwest NM. Recent guidance has trended towards stronger wind speeds across the Four Corners region as an upper trough passes over the region tomorrow afternoon. Most deterministic solutions suggest sustained winds will be near 20 mph, and latest HREF guidance shows minimum speeds between 15-20 mph across the region with high probability for RH values between 15-20%. Fuels are not overly favorable for rapid fire spread, but dry conditions through tomorrow coupled with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 5-25% of normal may promote adequate drying of finer fuels to support a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of far eastern AZ and northwest NM. Recent guidance has trended towards stronger wind speeds across the Four Corners region as an upper trough passes over the region tomorrow afternoon. Most deterministic solutions suggest sustained winds will be near 20 mph, and latest HREF guidance shows minimum speeds between 15-20 mph across the region with high probability for RH values between 15-20%. Fuels are not overly favorable for rapid fire spread, but dry conditions through tomorrow coupled with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 5-25% of normal may promote adequate drying of finer fuels to support a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of far eastern AZ and northwest NM. Recent guidance has trended towards stronger wind speeds across the Four Corners region as an upper trough passes over the region tomorrow afternoon. Most deterministic solutions suggest sustained winds will be near 20 mph, and latest HREF guidance shows minimum speeds between 15-20 mph across the region with high probability for RH values between 15-20%. Fuels are not overly favorable for rapid fire spread, but dry conditions through tomorrow coupled with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 5-25% of normal may promote adequate drying of finer fuels to support a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of far eastern AZ and northwest NM. Recent guidance has trended towards stronger wind speeds across the Four Corners region as an upper trough passes over the region tomorrow afternoon. Most deterministic solutions suggest sustained winds will be near 20 mph, and latest HREF guidance shows minimum speeds between 15-20 mph across the region with high probability for RH values between 15-20%. Fuels are not overly favorable for rapid fire spread, but dry conditions through tomorrow coupled with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 5-25% of normal may promote adequate drying of finer fuels to support a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of far eastern AZ and northwest NM. Recent guidance has trended towards stronger wind speeds across the Four Corners region as an upper trough passes over the region tomorrow afternoon. Most deterministic solutions suggest sustained winds will be near 20 mph, and latest HREF guidance shows minimum speeds between 15-20 mph across the region with high probability for RH values between 15-20%. Fuels are not overly favorable for rapid fire spread, but dry conditions through tomorrow coupled with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 5-25% of normal may promote adequate drying of finer fuels to support a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of far eastern AZ and northwest NM. Recent guidance has trended towards stronger wind speeds across the Four Corners region as an upper trough passes over the region tomorrow afternoon. Most deterministic solutions suggest sustained winds will be near 20 mph, and latest HREF guidance shows minimum speeds between 15-20 mph across the region with high probability for RH values between 15-20%. Fuels are not overly favorable for rapid fire spread, but dry conditions through tomorrow coupled with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 5-25% of normal may promote adequate drying of finer fuels to support a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of far eastern AZ and northwest NM. Recent guidance has trended towards stronger wind speeds across the Four Corners region as an upper trough passes over the region tomorrow afternoon. Most deterministic solutions suggest sustained winds will be near 20 mph, and latest HREF guidance shows minimum speeds between 15-20 mph across the region with high probability for RH values between 15-20%. Fuels are not overly favorable for rapid fire spread, but dry conditions through tomorrow coupled with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 5-25% of normal may promote adequate drying of finer fuels to support a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more