Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE VALLEY AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more