Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... High pressure over much of the CONUS will continue to provide stable conditions in terms of thunderstorm potential. Winds along the Gulf Coast will gradually veer to easterly as the centroid of the primary high moves across the lower MO and OH Valley, with a moist plume approaching the south TX Coast by early Saturday. Despite some theta-e advection atop the surface stable layer, overall threat of elevated thunderstorms appears low given minimal upper support. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... High pressure over much of the CONUS will continue to provide stable conditions in terms of thunderstorm potential. Winds along the Gulf Coast will gradually veer to easterly as the centroid of the primary high moves across the lower MO and OH Valley, with a moist plume approaching the south TX Coast by early Saturday. Despite some theta-e advection atop the surface stable layer, overall threat of elevated thunderstorms appears low given minimal upper support. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... High pressure over much of the CONUS will continue to provide stable conditions in terms of thunderstorm potential. Winds along the Gulf Coast will gradually veer to easterly as the centroid of the primary high moves across the lower MO and OH Valley, with a moist plume approaching the south TX Coast by early Saturday. Despite some theta-e advection atop the surface stable layer, overall threat of elevated thunderstorms appears low given minimal upper support. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... High pressure over much of the CONUS will continue to provide stable conditions in terms of thunderstorm potential. Winds along the Gulf Coast will gradually veer to easterly as the centroid of the primary high moves across the lower MO and OH Valley, with a moist plume approaching the south TX Coast by early Saturday. Despite some theta-e advection atop the surface stable layer, overall threat of elevated thunderstorms appears low given minimal upper support. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... High pressure over much of the CONUS will continue to provide stable conditions in terms of thunderstorm potential. Winds along the Gulf Coast will gradually veer to easterly as the centroid of the primary high moves across the lower MO and OH Valley, with a moist plume approaching the south TX Coast by early Saturday. Despite some theta-e advection atop the surface stable layer, overall threat of elevated thunderstorms appears low given minimal upper support. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... High pressure over much of the CONUS will continue to provide stable conditions in terms of thunderstorm potential. Winds along the Gulf Coast will gradually veer to easterly as the centroid of the primary high moves across the lower MO and OH Valley, with a moist plume approaching the south TX Coast by early Saturday. Despite some theta-e advection atop the surface stable layer, overall threat of elevated thunderstorms appears low given minimal upper support. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure will remain over much of the central CONUS today, as a cold front clears south FL and the Keys. Dry and/or stable conditions will prevail for a large majority of the CONUS, with minimal thunderstorm potential. One possible exception may be across parts of the central Rockies as a shortwave trough moves over this region through the afternoon. Still, with limited moisture present, overall thunderstorm potential should remain less than 10 percent across this region. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure will remain over much of the central CONUS today, as a cold front clears south FL and the Keys. Dry and/or stable conditions will prevail for a large majority of the CONUS, with minimal thunderstorm potential. One possible exception may be across parts of the central Rockies as a shortwave trough moves over this region through the afternoon. Still, with limited moisture present, overall thunderstorm potential should remain less than 10 percent across this region. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/20/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region. After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to the MS Valley on Day 8/Thu. During this time, lee low development over the southern Plains will result in strengthening southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf. Increasing moisture return ahead of the eastward developing low and attendant cold front will likely result in thunderstorm development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South vicinity on Day 8/Thu. While some severe potential could become favorable in this pattern, uncertainty regarding northward extent of moisture return, and timing of key features at this longer time range, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more