Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Dominant surface high pressure across the central CONUS will continue to limit wind speeds for most regions for today, though dry conditions will persist for portions of the Four Corners and southeastern states. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Dominant surface high pressure across the central CONUS will continue to limit wind speeds for most regions for today, though dry conditions will persist for portions of the Four Corners and southeastern states. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Dominant surface high pressure across the central CONUS will continue to limit wind speeds for most regions for today, though dry conditions will persist for portions of the Four Corners and southeastern states. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Dominant surface high pressure across the central CONUS will continue to limit wind speeds for most regions for today, though dry conditions will persist for portions of the Four Corners and southeastern states. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Dominant surface high pressure across the central CONUS will continue to limit wind speeds for most regions for today, though dry conditions will persist for portions of the Four Corners and southeastern states. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...TX/LA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well. Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...TX/LA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well. Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...TX/LA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well. Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...TX/LA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well. Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...TX/LA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well. Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...TX/LA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well. Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...TX/LA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well. Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce some small hail. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs progressing through the southern stream, with the lead wave moving through the Ozark Plateau and the second wave dropping through AZ towards northern Mexico. The lead wave is forecast to continue eastward, moving quickly through the TN Valley and central Appalachians before moving off the Carolina coast. The second shortwave is expected to pivot more eastward as it moves along the US/Mexico border before continuing across the southern High Plains and reaching central TX by early Sunday morning. Farther northwest, a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid-level flow will likely reach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band preceding this shortwave, a few of which could be deep enough to produce occasional lightning flashes. ...Upper TX Coast into Southwest LA... Recent surface analysis shows that the cold and dry airmass remains firmly in place across the southern Plains, with surface ridging anchored over AR maintaining offshore flow. This airmass is expected to remain largely in place, with only modest modification throughout the day. Much of the guidance keeps surface temperatures in the 40s along the TX and LA coasts throughout the period. Low to mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to increase as the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches the region. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave as well. As a result, despite persistent surface stability, some elevated buoyancy is expected, with showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated from the early afternoon through Sunday morning. The general expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to maximize after 06Z Sunday as the shortwave moves through TX, with an associated increase in large-scale ascent and decrease of the mid-level temperatures. Fairly strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer will overlap this modest thermodynamic environment, resulting in the potential for a few strong, more persistent, and organized updrafts embedded within the large precipitation shield. Some of these storms may become strong enough to produce hail, but most should be sub-severe (i.e. less than 1" in diameter), and the overall severe coverage is still expected to be below 5%. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce some small hail. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs progressing through the southern stream, with the lead wave moving through the Ozark Plateau and the second wave dropping through AZ towards northern Mexico. The lead wave is forecast to continue eastward, moving quickly through the TN Valley and central Appalachians before moving off the Carolina coast. The second shortwave is expected to pivot more eastward as it moves along the US/Mexico border before continuing across the southern High Plains and reaching central TX by early Sunday morning. Farther northwest, a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid-level flow will likely reach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band preceding this shortwave, a few of which could be deep enough to produce occasional lightning flashes. ...Upper TX Coast into Southwest LA... Recent surface analysis shows that the cold and dry airmass remains firmly in place across the southern Plains, with surface ridging anchored over AR maintaining offshore flow. This airmass is expected to remain largely in place, with only modest modification throughout the day. Much of the guidance keeps surface temperatures in the 40s along the TX and LA coasts throughout the period. Low to mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to increase as the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches the region. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave as well. As a result, despite persistent surface stability, some elevated buoyancy is expected, with showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated from the early afternoon through Sunday morning. The general expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to maximize after 06Z Sunday as the shortwave moves through TX, with an associated increase in large-scale ascent and decrease of the mid-level temperatures. Fairly strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer will overlap this modest thermodynamic environment, resulting in the potential for a few strong, more persistent, and organized updrafts embedded within the large precipitation shield. Some of these storms may become strong enough to produce hail, but most should be sub-severe (i.e. less than 1" in diameter), and the overall severe coverage is still expected to be below 5%. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce some small hail. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs progressing through the southern stream, with the lead wave moving through the Ozark Plateau and the second wave dropping through AZ towards northern Mexico. The lead wave is forecast to continue eastward, moving quickly through the TN Valley and central Appalachians before moving off the Carolina coast. The second shortwave is expected to pivot more eastward as it moves along the US/Mexico border before continuing across the southern High Plains and reaching central TX by early Sunday morning. Farther northwest, a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid-level flow will likely reach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band preceding this shortwave, a few of which could be deep enough to produce occasional lightning flashes. ...Upper TX Coast into Southwest LA... Recent surface analysis shows that the cold and dry airmass remains firmly in place across the southern Plains, with surface ridging anchored over AR maintaining offshore flow. This airmass is expected to remain largely in place, with only modest modification throughout the day. Much of the guidance keeps surface temperatures in the 40s along the TX and LA coasts throughout the period. Low to mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to increase as the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches the region. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave as well. As a result, despite persistent surface stability, some elevated buoyancy is expected, with showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated from the early afternoon through Sunday morning. The general expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to maximize after 06Z Sunday as the shortwave moves through TX, with an associated increase in large-scale ascent and decrease of the mid-level temperatures. Fairly strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer will overlap this modest thermodynamic environment, resulting in the potential for a few strong, more persistent, and organized updrafts embedded within the large precipitation shield. Some of these storms may become strong enough to produce hail, but most should be sub-severe (i.e. less than 1" in diameter), and the overall severe coverage is still expected to be below 5%. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce some small hail. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs progressing through the southern stream, with the lead wave moving through the Ozark Plateau and the second wave dropping through AZ towards northern Mexico. The lead wave is forecast to continue eastward, moving quickly through the TN Valley and central Appalachians before moving off the Carolina coast. The second shortwave is expected to pivot more eastward as it moves along the US/Mexico border before continuing across the southern High Plains and reaching central TX by early Sunday morning. Farther northwest, a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid-level flow will likely reach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band preceding this shortwave, a few of which could be deep enough to produce occasional lightning flashes. ...Upper TX Coast into Southwest LA... Recent surface analysis shows that the cold and dry airmass remains firmly in place across the southern Plains, with surface ridging anchored over AR maintaining offshore flow. This airmass is expected to remain largely in place, with only modest modification throughout the day. Much of the guidance keeps surface temperatures in the 40s along the TX and LA coasts throughout the period. Low to mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to increase as the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches the region. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave as well. As a result, despite persistent surface stability, some elevated buoyancy is expected, with showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated from the early afternoon through Sunday morning. The general expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to maximize after 06Z Sunday as the shortwave moves through TX, with an associated increase in large-scale ascent and decrease of the mid-level temperatures. Fairly strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer will overlap this modest thermodynamic environment, resulting in the potential for a few strong, more persistent, and organized updrafts embedded within the large precipitation shield. Some of these storms may become strong enough to produce hail, but most should be sub-severe (i.e. less than 1" in diameter), and the overall severe coverage is still expected to be below 5%. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce some small hail. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs progressing through the southern stream, with the lead wave moving through the Ozark Plateau and the second wave dropping through AZ towards northern Mexico. The lead wave is forecast to continue eastward, moving quickly through the TN Valley and central Appalachians before moving off the Carolina coast. The second shortwave is expected to pivot more eastward as it moves along the US/Mexico border before continuing across the southern High Plains and reaching central TX by early Sunday morning. Farther northwest, a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid-level flow will likely reach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band preceding this shortwave, a few of which could be deep enough to produce occasional lightning flashes. ...Upper TX Coast into Southwest LA... Recent surface analysis shows that the cold and dry airmass remains firmly in place across the southern Plains, with surface ridging anchored over AR maintaining offshore flow. This airmass is expected to remain largely in place, with only modest modification throughout the day. Much of the guidance keeps surface temperatures in the 40s along the TX and LA coasts throughout the period. Low to mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to increase as the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches the region. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave as well. As a result, despite persistent surface stability, some elevated buoyancy is expected, with showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated from the early afternoon through Sunday morning. The general expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to maximize after 06Z Sunday as the shortwave moves through TX, with an associated increase in large-scale ascent and decrease of the mid-level temperatures. Fairly strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer will overlap this modest thermodynamic environment, resulting in the potential for a few strong, more persistent, and organized updrafts embedded within the large precipitation shield. Some of these storms may become strong enough to produce hail, but most should be sub-severe (i.e. less than 1" in diameter), and the overall severe coverage is still expected to be below 5%. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce some small hail. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs progressing through the southern stream, with the lead wave moving through the Ozark Plateau and the second wave dropping through AZ towards northern Mexico. The lead wave is forecast to continue eastward, moving quickly through the TN Valley and central Appalachians before moving off the Carolina coast. The second shortwave is expected to pivot more eastward as it moves along the US/Mexico border before continuing across the southern High Plains and reaching central TX by early Sunday morning. Farther northwest, a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid-level flow will likely reach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band preceding this shortwave, a few of which could be deep enough to produce occasional lightning flashes. ...Upper TX Coast into Southwest LA... Recent surface analysis shows that the cold and dry airmass remains firmly in place across the southern Plains, with surface ridging anchored over AR maintaining offshore flow. This airmass is expected to remain largely in place, with only modest modification throughout the day. Much of the guidance keeps surface temperatures in the 40s along the TX and LA coasts throughout the period. Low to mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to increase as the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches the region. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave as well. As a result, despite persistent surface stability, some elevated buoyancy is expected, with showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated from the early afternoon through Sunday morning. The general expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to maximize after 06Z Sunday as the shortwave moves through TX, with an associated increase in large-scale ascent and decrease of the mid-level temperatures. Fairly strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer will overlap this modest thermodynamic environment, resulting in the potential for a few strong, more persistent, and organized updrafts embedded within the large precipitation shield. Some of these storms may become strong enough to produce hail, but most should be sub-severe (i.e. less than 1" in diameter), and the overall severe coverage is still expected to be below 5%. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/22/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the beginning of the forecast period, dry conditions will be prevalent across the entire Gulf basin. Southerly flow and some moisture return will begin Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front pushes dry air into the Gulf again early Thursday. This continued dry air across the Gulf will continue to limit moisture availability needed for any severe weather threat. Beyond D8/Sat there is a better signal for ridging across the central Plains and a return to quality low-level moisture across parts of Texas. However, until that time, severe weather potential will remain low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the beginning of the forecast period, dry conditions will be prevalent across the entire Gulf basin. Southerly flow and some moisture return will begin Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front pushes dry air into the Gulf again early Thursday. This continued dry air across the Gulf will continue to limit moisture availability needed for any severe weather threat. Beyond D8/Sat there is a better signal for ridging across the central Plains and a return to quality low-level moisture across parts of Texas. However, until that time, severe weather potential will remain low. Read more