Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

MD 0388 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 110... FOR PARTS OF W CNTRL THROUGH NW TEXAS AND ADJACENT SWRN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...parts of w cntrl through nw Texas and adjacent swrn OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110... Valid 040635Z - 040830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms, posing primarily the risk for large, potentially damaging, hail appears likely to spread across and northeast of the San Angelo and Abilene vicinities through 3-5 AM CDT. The extent to which this threat persists northward into the Red River Valley and north central Texas thereafter remains unclear, but trends are being monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed the past few hours, including several sustained vigorous storms. Activity is all rooted above shallow cold air to the north of a sharp surface front (now stalled near the College Station into Austin and Del Rio vicinities), focused along the northwestern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly delineated by temperatures of 8-10 C around 700 mb. Forecast soundings along this corridor exhibit "loaded gun" thermodynamic profiles, rooted within a moist layer between 850-700 mb, characterized by most unstable CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Shear within the convective layer is strong and supportive of supercells. The more intense convection appears likely to shift with the stronger lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent forecast to spread across the San Angelo toward Abilene vicinity during the next several hours. There are indications in latest model output that further warming above the potentially more buoyant lower-level air mass could increasingly suppress stronger storm development toward 09-10Z. However, this remains uncertain. ..Kerr.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 29900169 31020205 33440049 34539894 33479738 31819887 30080016 29690124 29900169 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-137-151-207-235-253-267-307-319-327- 353-399-411-413-417-431-435-441-447-451-465-040840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT EDWARDS FISHER HASKELL IRION JONES KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be likely on Sunday across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. Along and ahead of the front, a large MCS will be ongoing at the start of the period. This MCS will move eastward during the day. Ahead of the MCS, warming surface temperatures across a very moist airmass, and moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable for isolated severe storms. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon in the central Gulf Coast states near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to steepen during the day. This should be favorable for isolated severe storms. Supercell development will be possible along or ahead of the line, mainly in areas where instability becomes the strongest. Bowing line segments will also be possible within the line itself. The primary threat is expected to be wind damage, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. The greatest severe potential appears likely to shift eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by early evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic... At the start of the period, a cold front is forecast to be located from the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. The northern end of a large MCS will likely be ongoing, with this convection moving eastward across the southern and central Appalachians during the day. Ahead of the MCS, weak instability is expected to develop. Forecast soundings ahead of the front have MLCAPE peaking in the 250 to 500 J/kg range by afternoon. In addition, a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley. This feature will create strong deep-layer shear profiles, favorable for an isolated severe threat. As low-level lapse rates gradually steepen ahead of the front, an isolated wind-damage threat should develop. This threat may persist through the afternoon, as a broken line of storms moves eastward into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more