Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for localized elevated conditions in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern NM and across east/southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle. However, coverage of elevated conditions and unreceptive fuel status should limit fire weather concerns for both regions. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for localized elevated conditions in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern NM and across east/southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle. However, coverage of elevated conditions and unreceptive fuel status should limit fire weather concerns for both regions. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for localized elevated conditions in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern NM and across east/southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle. However, coverage of elevated conditions and unreceptive fuel status should limit fire weather concerns for both regions. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for localized elevated conditions in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern NM and across east/southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle. However, coverage of elevated conditions and unreceptive fuel status should limit fire weather concerns for both regions. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for localized elevated conditions in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern NM and across east/southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle. However, coverage of elevated conditions and unreceptive fuel status should limit fire weather concerns for both regions. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue through the Gulf towards the western Florida Peninsula on Monday. In the Northwest, a compact, strong shortwave will pivot through the region during the afternoon and evening. A modest surface low will accompany the eastern trough, with a weak surface boundary draped across central Florida. Though shear across central/southern Florida will be sufficient for organized convection. Weak lapse rates and muted surface heating due to preceding clouds/precipitation are expected to limit potential for severe weather. A conditionally stronger storm would be possible if surface heating is greater than expected near the boundary. This outcome is too uncertain for severe probabilities. With a stronger shortwave than Sunday day, potential for thunderstorms will be slightly higher. Wind fields will be strong, but buoyancy is not expected to be overly large. A stronger, convectively-enhanced gust is possible right along the coast, but potential for more than an isolated/marginal severe concern is rather low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue through the Gulf towards the western Florida Peninsula on Monday. In the Northwest, a compact, strong shortwave will pivot through the region during the afternoon and evening. A modest surface low will accompany the eastern trough, with a weak surface boundary draped across central Florida. Though shear across central/southern Florida will be sufficient for organized convection. Weak lapse rates and muted surface heating due to preceding clouds/precipitation are expected to limit potential for severe weather. A conditionally stronger storm would be possible if surface heating is greater than expected near the boundary. This outcome is too uncertain for severe probabilities. With a stronger shortwave than Sunday day, potential for thunderstorms will be slightly higher. Wind fields will be strong, but buoyancy is not expected to be overly large. A stronger, convectively-enhanced gust is possible right along the coast, but potential for more than an isolated/marginal severe concern is rather low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue through the Gulf towards the western Florida Peninsula on Monday. In the Northwest, a compact, strong shortwave will pivot through the region during the afternoon and evening. A modest surface low will accompany the eastern trough, with a weak surface boundary draped across central Florida. Though shear across central/southern Florida will be sufficient for organized convection. Weak lapse rates and muted surface heating due to preceding clouds/precipitation are expected to limit potential for severe weather. A conditionally stronger storm would be possible if surface heating is greater than expected near the boundary. This outcome is too uncertain for severe probabilities. With a stronger shortwave than Sunday day, potential for thunderstorms will be slightly higher. Wind fields will be strong, but buoyancy is not expected to be overly large. A stronger, convectively-enhanced gust is possible right along the coast, but potential for more than an isolated/marginal severe concern is rather low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue through the Gulf towards the western Florida Peninsula on Monday. In the Northwest, a compact, strong shortwave will pivot through the region during the afternoon and evening. A modest surface low will accompany the eastern trough, with a weak surface boundary draped across central Florida. Though shear across central/southern Florida will be sufficient for organized convection. Weak lapse rates and muted surface heating due to preceding clouds/precipitation are expected to limit potential for severe weather. A conditionally stronger storm would be possible if surface heating is greater than expected near the boundary. This outcome is too uncertain for severe probabilities. With a stronger shortwave than Sunday day, potential for thunderstorms will be slightly higher. Wind fields will be strong, but buoyancy is not expected to be overly large. A stronger, convectively-enhanced gust is possible right along the coast, but potential for more than an isolated/marginal severe concern is rather low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue through the Gulf towards the western Florida Peninsula on Monday. In the Northwest, a compact, strong shortwave will pivot through the region during the afternoon and evening. A modest surface low will accompany the eastern trough, with a weak surface boundary draped across central Florida. Though shear across central/southern Florida will be sufficient for organized convection. Weak lapse rates and muted surface heating due to preceding clouds/precipitation are expected to limit potential for severe weather. A conditionally stronger storm would be possible if surface heating is greater than expected near the boundary. This outcome is too uncertain for severe probabilities. With a stronger shortwave than Sunday day, potential for thunderstorms will be slightly higher. Wind fields will be strong, but buoyancy is not expected to be overly large. A stronger, convectively-enhanced gust is possible right along the coast, but potential for more than an isolated/marginal severe concern is rather low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue through the Gulf towards the western Florida Peninsula on Monday. In the Northwest, a compact, strong shortwave will pivot through the region during the afternoon and evening. A modest surface low will accompany the eastern trough, with a weak surface boundary draped across central Florida. Though shear across central/southern Florida will be sufficient for organized convection. Weak lapse rates and muted surface heating due to preceding clouds/precipitation are expected to limit potential for severe weather. A conditionally stronger storm would be possible if surface heating is greater than expected near the boundary. This outcome is too uncertain for severe probabilities. With a stronger shortwave than Sunday day, potential for thunderstorms will be slightly higher. Wind fields will be strong, but buoyancy is not expected to be overly large. A stronger, convectively-enhanced gust is possible right along the coast, but potential for more than an isolated/marginal severe concern is rather low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of coastal Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable conditions at the surface will continue to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. A shortwave trough moving southeastward through Texas will induce a weak surface low just south of the coastal plain regions. Greater moisture/buoyancy are still expected to remain offshore, however. Even so, weak elevated instability will exist in portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection may produce lightning, particularly near the coast. In the Northwest, an initial compact shortwave will move ashore during the late afternoon into the evening. While lightning production will be minimal, a few stronger elevated storms could become deep enough for charge separation along the immediate coast. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of coastal Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable conditions at the surface will continue to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. A shortwave trough moving southeastward through Texas will induce a weak surface low just south of the coastal plain regions. Greater moisture/buoyancy are still expected to remain offshore, however. Even so, weak elevated instability will exist in portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection may produce lightning, particularly near the coast. In the Northwest, an initial compact shortwave will move ashore during the late afternoon into the evening. While lightning production will be minimal, a few stronger elevated storms could become deep enough for charge separation along the immediate coast. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of coastal Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable conditions at the surface will continue to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. A shortwave trough moving southeastward through Texas will induce a weak surface low just south of the coastal plain regions. Greater moisture/buoyancy are still expected to remain offshore, however. Even so, weak elevated instability will exist in portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection may produce lightning, particularly near the coast. In the Northwest, an initial compact shortwave will move ashore during the late afternoon into the evening. While lightning production will be minimal, a few stronger elevated storms could become deep enough for charge separation along the immediate coast. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of coastal Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable conditions at the surface will continue to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. A shortwave trough moving southeastward through Texas will induce a weak surface low just south of the coastal plain regions. Greater moisture/buoyancy are still expected to remain offshore, however. Even so, weak elevated instability will exist in portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection may produce lightning, particularly near the coast. In the Northwest, an initial compact shortwave will move ashore during the late afternoon into the evening. While lightning production will be minimal, a few stronger elevated storms could become deep enough for charge separation along the immediate coast. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of coastal Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable conditions at the surface will continue to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. A shortwave trough moving southeastward through Texas will induce a weak surface low just south of the coastal plain regions. Greater moisture/buoyancy are still expected to remain offshore, however. Even so, weak elevated instability will exist in portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection may produce lightning, particularly near the coast. In the Northwest, an initial compact shortwave will move ashore during the late afternoon into the evening. While lightning production will be minimal, a few stronger elevated storms could become deep enough for charge separation along the immediate coast. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of coastal Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable conditions at the surface will continue to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. A shortwave trough moving southeastward through Texas will induce a weak surface low just south of the coastal plain regions. Greater moisture/buoyancy are still expected to remain offshore, however. Even so, weak elevated instability will exist in portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection may produce lightning, particularly near the coast. In the Northwest, an initial compact shortwave will move ashore during the late afternoon into the evening. While lightning production will be minimal, a few stronger elevated storms could become deep enough for charge separation along the immediate coast. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of coastal Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable conditions at the surface will continue to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. A shortwave trough moving southeastward through Texas will induce a weak surface low just south of the coastal plain regions. Greater moisture/buoyancy are still expected to remain offshore, however. Even so, weak elevated instability will exist in portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection may produce lightning, particularly near the coast. In the Northwest, an initial compact shortwave will move ashore during the late afternoon into the evening. While lightning production will be minimal, a few stronger elevated storms could become deep enough for charge separation along the immediate coast. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Dominant surface high pressure across the central CONUS will continue to limit wind speeds for most regions for today, though dry conditions will persist for portions of the Four Corners and southeastern states. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Dominant surface high pressure across the central CONUS will continue to limit wind speeds for most regions for today, though dry conditions will persist for portions of the Four Corners and southeastern states. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more