Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country through much of the upcoming work week, though some fire concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft is expected to persist for much of the upcoming week amid persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread, but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime, though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more robust surface cyclones become probable across the southern U.S. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... After an upper-level trough moves of the eastern Florida coast, generally quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS. Two shortwaves, one in central/northern Rockies and the other in Mid-Atlantic, will have little in terms of moisture to work with. Thunderstorm potential with these features will be quite low. Very isolated thunderstorm activity could linger into early Tuesday morning in Florida, but the departing shortwave/surface low will not synoptically favor coverage at or above 10%. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... After an upper-level trough moves of the eastern Florida coast, generally quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS. Two shortwaves, one in central/northern Rockies and the other in Mid-Atlantic, will have little in terms of moisture to work with. Thunderstorm potential with these features will be quite low. Very isolated thunderstorm activity could linger into early Tuesday morning in Florida, but the departing shortwave/surface low will not synoptically favor coverage at or above 10%. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... After an upper-level trough moves of the eastern Florida coast, generally quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS. Two shortwaves, one in central/northern Rockies and the other in Mid-Atlantic, will have little in terms of moisture to work with. Thunderstorm potential with these features will be quite low. Very isolated thunderstorm activity could linger into early Tuesday morning in Florida, but the departing shortwave/surface low will not synoptically favor coverage at or above 10%. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... After an upper-level trough moves of the eastern Florida coast, generally quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS. Two shortwaves, one in central/northern Rockies and the other in Mid-Atlantic, will have little in terms of moisture to work with. Thunderstorm potential with these features will be quite low. Very isolated thunderstorm activity could linger into early Tuesday morning in Florida, but the departing shortwave/surface low will not synoptically favor coverage at or above 10%. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... After an upper-level trough moves of the eastern Florida coast, generally quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS. Two shortwaves, one in central/northern Rockies and the other in Mid-Atlantic, will have little in terms of moisture to work with. Thunderstorm potential with these features will be quite low. Very isolated thunderstorm activity could linger into early Tuesday morning in Florida, but the departing shortwave/surface low will not synoptically favor coverage at or above 10%. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... After an upper-level trough moves of the eastern Florida coast, generally quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS. Two shortwaves, one in central/northern Rockies and the other in Mid-Atlantic, will have little in terms of moisture to work with. Thunderstorm potential with these features will be quite low. Very isolated thunderstorm activity could linger into early Tuesday morning in Florida, but the departing shortwave/surface low will not synoptically favor coverage at or above 10%. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... After an upper-level trough moves of the eastern Florida coast, generally quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS. Two shortwaves, one in central/northern Rockies and the other in Mid-Atlantic, will have little in terms of moisture to work with. Thunderstorm potential with these features will be quite low. Very isolated thunderstorm activity could linger into early Tuesday morning in Florida, but the departing shortwave/surface low will not synoptically favor coverage at or above 10%. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should continue across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may still occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...20Z Update... The primary change made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim western portions of the general thunder delineation over Coastal TX. Low-level moisture advection and associated buoyancy is translating east along the Gulf Coast in tandem with a mid-level trough. As such, additional lightning flashes are most likely across portions of LA into central/southern MS and adjacent waters. A few lightning flashes still remain possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should continue across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may still occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...20Z Update... The primary change made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim western portions of the general thunder delineation over Coastal TX. Low-level moisture advection and associated buoyancy is translating east along the Gulf Coast in tandem with a mid-level trough. As such, additional lightning flashes are most likely across portions of LA into central/southern MS and adjacent waters. A few lightning flashes still remain possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should continue across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may still occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...20Z Update... The primary change made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim western portions of the general thunder delineation over Coastal TX. Low-level moisture advection and associated buoyancy is translating east along the Gulf Coast in tandem with a mid-level trough. As such, additional lightning flashes are most likely across portions of LA into central/southern MS and adjacent waters. A few lightning flashes still remain possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should continue across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may still occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...20Z Update... The primary change made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim western portions of the general thunder delineation over Coastal TX. Low-level moisture advection and associated buoyancy is translating east along the Gulf Coast in tandem with a mid-level trough. As such, additional lightning flashes are most likely across portions of LA into central/southern MS and adjacent waters. A few lightning flashes still remain possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should continue across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may still occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...20Z Update... The primary change made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim western portions of the general thunder delineation over Coastal TX. Low-level moisture advection and associated buoyancy is translating east along the Gulf Coast in tandem with a mid-level trough. As such, additional lightning flashes are most likely across portions of LA into central/southern MS and adjacent waters. A few lightning flashes still remain possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should continue across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may still occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...20Z Update... The primary change made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim western portions of the general thunder delineation over Coastal TX. Low-level moisture advection and associated buoyancy is translating east along the Gulf Coast in tandem with a mid-level trough. As such, additional lightning flashes are most likely across portions of LA into central/southern MS and adjacent waters. A few lightning flashes still remain possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should continue across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may still occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...20Z Update... The primary change made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim western portions of the general thunder delineation over Coastal TX. Low-level moisture advection and associated buoyancy is translating east along the Gulf Coast in tandem with a mid-level trough. As such, additional lightning flashes are most likely across portions of LA into central/southern MS and adjacent waters. A few lightning flashes still remain possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Localized elevated conditions may materialize along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains in New Mexico, but should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. Additional forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion below remain on track. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are forecast on Monday across portions of the Central and Northern Plains, reaching 25-30 MPH in the ensemble mean over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. However, relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 20%, and ERC fuels guidance suggests that fuels are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. Given these limiting factors, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced into the forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Localized elevated conditions may materialize along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains in New Mexico, but should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. Additional forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion below remain on track. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are forecast on Monday across portions of the Central and Northern Plains, reaching 25-30 MPH in the ensemble mean over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. However, relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 20%, and ERC fuels guidance suggests that fuels are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. Given these limiting factors, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced into the forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Localized elevated conditions may materialize along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains in New Mexico, but should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. Additional forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion below remain on track. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are forecast on Monday across portions of the Central and Northern Plains, reaching 25-30 MPH in the ensemble mean over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. However, relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 20%, and ERC fuels guidance suggests that fuels are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. Given these limiting factors, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced into the forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Localized elevated conditions may materialize along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains in New Mexico, but should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. Additional forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion below remain on track. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are forecast on Monday across portions of the Central and Northern Plains, reaching 25-30 MPH in the ensemble mean over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. However, relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 20%, and ERC fuels guidance suggests that fuels are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. Given these limiting factors, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced into the forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Localized elevated conditions may materialize along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains in New Mexico, but should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. Additional forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion below remain on track. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are forecast on Monday across portions of the Central and Northern Plains, reaching 25-30 MPH in the ensemble mean over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. However, relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 20%, and ERC fuels guidance suggests that fuels are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. Given these limiting factors, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced into the forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more