Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible on western/central portions of the Florida Peninsula, where southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph, minimum RH of 30-45%, and temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected. Additionally, ERCs range from the 60th to 90th percentiles with KBDIs of 600-750 on the peninsula. Some cloud cover will help mitigate the pre-frontal fire environment, but the warming/drying trend will continue. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly move eastward during the day on Saturday. Precipitation accompanying this trough is expected to fall across parts of the southern Rockies as well as the southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible on western/central portions of the Florida Peninsula, where southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph, minimum RH of 30-45%, and temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected. Additionally, ERCs range from the 60th to 90th percentiles with KBDIs of 600-750 on the peninsula. Some cloud cover will help mitigate the pre-frontal fire environment, but the warming/drying trend will continue. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly move eastward during the day on Saturday. Precipitation accompanying this trough is expected to fall across parts of the southern Rockies as well as the southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible on western/central portions of the Florida Peninsula, where southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph, minimum RH of 30-45%, and temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected. Additionally, ERCs range from the 60th to 90th percentiles with KBDIs of 600-750 on the peninsula. Some cloud cover will help mitigate the pre-frontal fire environment, but the warming/drying trend will continue. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly move eastward during the day on Saturday. Precipitation accompanying this trough is expected to fall across parts of the southern Rockies as well as the southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible on western/central portions of the Florida Peninsula, where southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph, minimum RH of 30-45%, and temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected. Additionally, ERCs range from the 60th to 90th percentiles with KBDIs of 600-750 on the peninsula. Some cloud cover will help mitigate the pre-frontal fire environment, but the warming/drying trend will continue. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly move eastward during the day on Saturday. Precipitation accompanying this trough is expected to fall across parts of the southern Rockies as well as the southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible on western/central portions of the Florida Peninsula, where southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph, minimum RH of 30-45%, and temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected. Additionally, ERCs range from the 60th to 90th percentiles with KBDIs of 600-750 on the peninsula. Some cloud cover will help mitigate the pre-frontal fire environment, but the warming/drying trend will continue. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly move eastward during the day on Saturday. Precipitation accompanying this trough is expected to fall across parts of the southern Rockies as well as the southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible on western/central portions of the Florida Peninsula, where southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph, minimum RH of 30-45%, and temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected. Additionally, ERCs range from the 60th to 90th percentiles with KBDIs of 600-750 on the peninsula. Some cloud cover will help mitigate the pre-frontal fire environment, but the warming/drying trend will continue. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly move eastward during the day on Saturday. Precipitation accompanying this trough is expected to fall across parts of the southern Rockies as well as the southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible on western/central portions of the Florida Peninsula, where southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph, minimum RH of 30-45%, and temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected. Additionally, ERCs range from the 60th to 90th percentiles with KBDIs of 600-750 on the peninsula. Some cloud cover will help mitigate the pre-frontal fire environment, but the warming/drying trend will continue. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly move eastward during the day on Saturday. Precipitation accompanying this trough is expected to fall across parts of the southern Rockies as well as the southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible on western/central portions of the Florida Peninsula, where southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph, minimum RH of 30-45%, and temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected. Additionally, ERCs range from the 60th to 90th percentiles with KBDIs of 600-750 on the peninsula. Some cloud cover will help mitigate the pre-frontal fire environment, but the warming/drying trend will continue. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly move eastward during the day on Saturday. Precipitation accompanying this trough is expected to fall across parts of the southern Rockies as well as the southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible on western/central portions of the Florida Peninsula, where southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph, minimum RH of 30-45%, and temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected. Additionally, ERCs range from the 60th to 90th percentiles with KBDIs of 600-750 on the peninsula. Some cloud cover will help mitigate the pre-frontal fire environment, but the warming/drying trend will continue. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly move eastward during the day on Saturday. Precipitation accompanying this trough is expected to fall across parts of the southern Rockies as well as the southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0113 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0113 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 4 17:48:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. ...East Texas into Middle Tennessee... Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However, guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max. Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north, with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday. Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of the primary frontal development. ...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians... The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. ...East Texas into Middle Tennessee... Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However, guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max. Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north, with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday. Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of the primary frontal development. ...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians... The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. ...East Texas into Middle Tennessee... Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However, guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max. Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north, with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday. Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of the primary frontal development. ...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians... The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. ...East Texas into Middle Tennessee... Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However, guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max. Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north, with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday. Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of the primary frontal development. ...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians... The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. ...East Texas into Middle Tennessee... Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However, guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max. Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north, with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday. Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of the primary frontal development. ...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians... The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. ...East Texas into Middle Tennessee... Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However, guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max. Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north, with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday. Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of the primary frontal development. ...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians... The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. ...East Texas into Middle Tennessee... Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However, guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max. Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north, with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday. Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of the primary frontal development. ...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians... The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. ...East Texas into Middle Tennessee... Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However, guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max. Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north, with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday. Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of the primary frontal development. ...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians... The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more