Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the broadly cyclonic flow aloft extending from the northern/central Plains and southern Canadian Prairies into the OH Valley and Northeast. The lead wave in the pair is currently over the Upper OH Valley, and should continue northeastward through the Northeast States today. The trailing wave is currently moving southeastward through the Upper Midwest, with the expectation that it will pivot more eastward as it moves through the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley today before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic States overnight. Recent surface analysis placed a low over eastern Lake Erie, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This low is forecast to progress northeastward up the St. Lawrence Valley just ahead of the lead shortwave, with the attendant front moving eastward/southeastward. A weak, secondary frontal boundary is expected to move through the OH Valley, demarcated primarily by a shift to stronger, more northwesterly winds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along both of these fronts, mostly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Mid/Upper OH Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures are expected to spread across the region as the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis progresses through. These cold temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will occur atop a well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in 7 to 8 deg C/km lapse rates throughout the troposphere. These lapse rates will help support modest buoyancy, despite surface temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s and dewpoints in the upper 30s. Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated along the surface boundary that is expected to move through the region, with the greatest coverage in the OH/KY/WV border vicinity this evening. Predominantly low-topped thunderstorms with transient updraft structures are anticipated. Even so, gusty winds and small hail may be noted with the more persistent and organized updrafts. Overall severe coverage is expected to be below thresholds for outlooking any areas. ...Carolinas in central GA... Modest pre-frontal buoyancy is expected to develop amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating, supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms as the front moves through. Small hail and a damaging gust or two are possible within the strongest storms, but a largely anafrontal and elevated storm structure should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the broadly cyclonic flow aloft extending from the northern/central Plains and southern Canadian Prairies into the OH Valley and Northeast. The lead wave in the pair is currently over the Upper OH Valley, and should continue northeastward through the Northeast States today. The trailing wave is currently moving southeastward through the Upper Midwest, with the expectation that it will pivot more eastward as it moves through the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley today before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic States overnight. Recent surface analysis placed a low over eastern Lake Erie, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This low is forecast to progress northeastward up the St. Lawrence Valley just ahead of the lead shortwave, with the attendant front moving eastward/southeastward. A weak, secondary frontal boundary is expected to move through the OH Valley, demarcated primarily by a shift to stronger, more northwesterly winds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along both of these fronts, mostly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Mid/Upper OH Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures are expected to spread across the region as the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis progresses through. These cold temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will occur atop a well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in 7 to 8 deg C/km lapse rates throughout the troposphere. These lapse rates will help support modest buoyancy, despite surface temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s and dewpoints in the upper 30s. Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated along the surface boundary that is expected to move through the region, with the greatest coverage in the OH/KY/WV border vicinity this evening. Predominantly low-topped thunderstorms with transient updraft structures are anticipated. Even so, gusty winds and small hail may be noted with the more persistent and organized updrafts. Overall severe coverage is expected to be below thresholds for outlooking any areas. ...Carolinas in central GA... Modest pre-frontal buoyancy is expected to develop amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating, supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms as the front moves through. Small hail and a damaging gust or two are possible within the strongest storms, but a largely anafrontal and elevated storm structure should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the broadly cyclonic flow aloft extending from the northern/central Plains and southern Canadian Prairies into the OH Valley and Northeast. The lead wave in the pair is currently over the Upper OH Valley, and should continue northeastward through the Northeast States today. The trailing wave is currently moving southeastward through the Upper Midwest, with the expectation that it will pivot more eastward as it moves through the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley today before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic States overnight. Recent surface analysis placed a low over eastern Lake Erie, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This low is forecast to progress northeastward up the St. Lawrence Valley just ahead of the lead shortwave, with the attendant front moving eastward/southeastward. A weak, secondary frontal boundary is expected to move through the OH Valley, demarcated primarily by a shift to stronger, more northwesterly winds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along both of these fronts, mostly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Mid/Upper OH Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures are expected to spread across the region as the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis progresses through. These cold temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will occur atop a well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in 7 to 8 deg C/km lapse rates throughout the troposphere. These lapse rates will help support modest buoyancy, despite surface temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s and dewpoints in the upper 30s. Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated along the surface boundary that is expected to move through the region, with the greatest coverage in the OH/KY/WV border vicinity this evening. Predominantly low-topped thunderstorms with transient updraft structures are anticipated. Even so, gusty winds and small hail may be noted with the more persistent and organized updrafts. Overall severe coverage is expected to be below thresholds for outlooking any areas. ...Carolinas in central GA... Modest pre-frontal buoyancy is expected to develop amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating, supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms as the front moves through. Small hail and a damaging gust or two are possible within the strongest storms, but a largely anafrontal and elevated storm structure should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the broadly cyclonic flow aloft extending from the northern/central Plains and southern Canadian Prairies into the OH Valley and Northeast. The lead wave in the pair is currently over the Upper OH Valley, and should continue northeastward through the Northeast States today. The trailing wave is currently moving southeastward through the Upper Midwest, with the expectation that it will pivot more eastward as it moves through the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley today before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic States overnight. Recent surface analysis placed a low over eastern Lake Erie, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This low is forecast to progress northeastward up the St. Lawrence Valley just ahead of the lead shortwave, with the attendant front moving eastward/southeastward. A weak, secondary frontal boundary is expected to move through the OH Valley, demarcated primarily by a shift to stronger, more northwesterly winds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along both of these fronts, mostly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Mid/Upper OH Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures are expected to spread across the region as the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis progresses through. These cold temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will occur atop a well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in 7 to 8 deg C/km lapse rates throughout the troposphere. These lapse rates will help support modest buoyancy, despite surface temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s and dewpoints in the upper 30s. Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated along the surface boundary that is expected to move through the region, with the greatest coverage in the OH/KY/WV border vicinity this evening. Predominantly low-topped thunderstorms with transient updraft structures are anticipated. Even so, gusty winds and small hail may be noted with the more persistent and organized updrafts. Overall severe coverage is expected to be below thresholds for outlooking any areas. ...Carolinas in central GA... Modest pre-frontal buoyancy is expected to develop amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating, supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms as the front moves through. Small hail and a damaging gust or two are possible within the strongest storms, but a largely anafrontal and elevated storm structure should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the broadly cyclonic flow aloft extending from the northern/central Plains and southern Canadian Prairies into the OH Valley and Northeast. The lead wave in the pair is currently over the Upper OH Valley, and should continue northeastward through the Northeast States today. The trailing wave is currently moving southeastward through the Upper Midwest, with the expectation that it will pivot more eastward as it moves through the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley today before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic States overnight. Recent surface analysis placed a low over eastern Lake Erie, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This low is forecast to progress northeastward up the St. Lawrence Valley just ahead of the lead shortwave, with the attendant front moving eastward/southeastward. A weak, secondary frontal boundary is expected to move through the OH Valley, demarcated primarily by a shift to stronger, more northwesterly winds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along both of these fronts, mostly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Mid/Upper OH Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures are expected to spread across the region as the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis progresses through. These cold temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will occur atop a well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in 7 to 8 deg C/km lapse rates throughout the troposphere. These lapse rates will help support modest buoyancy, despite surface temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s and dewpoints in the upper 30s. Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated along the surface boundary that is expected to move through the region, with the greatest coverage in the OH/KY/WV border vicinity this evening. Predominantly low-topped thunderstorms with transient updraft structures are anticipated. Even so, gusty winds and small hail may be noted with the more persistent and organized updrafts. Overall severe coverage is expected to be below thresholds for outlooking any areas. ...Carolinas in central GA... Modest pre-frontal buoyancy is expected to develop amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating, supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms as the front moves through. Small hail and a damaging gust or two are possible within the strongest storms, but a largely anafrontal and elevated storm structure should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the broadly cyclonic flow aloft extending from the northern/central Plains and southern Canadian Prairies into the OH Valley and Northeast. The lead wave in the pair is currently over the Upper OH Valley, and should continue northeastward through the Northeast States today. The trailing wave is currently moving southeastward through the Upper Midwest, with the expectation that it will pivot more eastward as it moves through the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley today before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic States overnight. Recent surface analysis placed a low over eastern Lake Erie, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This low is forecast to progress northeastward up the St. Lawrence Valley just ahead of the lead shortwave, with the attendant front moving eastward/southeastward. A weak, secondary frontal boundary is expected to move through the OH Valley, demarcated primarily by a shift to stronger, more northwesterly winds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along both of these fronts, mostly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Mid/Upper OH Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures are expected to spread across the region as the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis progresses through. These cold temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will occur atop a well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in 7 to 8 deg C/km lapse rates throughout the troposphere. These lapse rates will help support modest buoyancy, despite surface temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s and dewpoints in the upper 30s. Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated along the surface boundary that is expected to move through the region, with the greatest coverage in the OH/KY/WV border vicinity this evening. Predominantly low-topped thunderstorms with transient updraft structures are anticipated. Even so, gusty winds and small hail may be noted with the more persistent and organized updrafts. Overall severe coverage is expected to be below thresholds for outlooking any areas. ...Carolinas in central GA... Modest pre-frontal buoyancy is expected to develop amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating, supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms as the front moves through. Small hail and a damaging gust or two are possible within the strongest storms, but a largely anafrontal and elevated storm structure should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/27/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California and southern Oregon Coast on Saturday night. ...Discussion... On Saturday, the large scale pattern will feature a trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across the western CONUS and another larger scale trough approaching the West Coast. Beneath this ridge, an upper low will translate east across the Southwest. A dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential across most of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. A few lightning flashes may be possible late along the northern California/southern Oregon coast Saturday night as temperatures cool aloft and mid-level lapse rates steepen, yielding weak instability after 06Z. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California and southern Oregon Coast on Saturday night. ...Discussion... On Saturday, the large scale pattern will feature a trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across the western CONUS and another larger scale trough approaching the West Coast. Beneath this ridge, an upper low will translate east across the Southwest. A dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential across most of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. A few lightning flashes may be possible late along the northern California/southern Oregon coast Saturday night as temperatures cool aloft and mid-level lapse rates steepen, yielding weak instability after 06Z. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California and southern Oregon Coast on Saturday night. ...Discussion... On Saturday, the large scale pattern will feature a trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across the western CONUS and another larger scale trough approaching the West Coast. Beneath this ridge, an upper low will translate east across the Southwest. A dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential across most of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. A few lightning flashes may be possible late along the northern California/southern Oregon coast Saturday night as temperatures cool aloft and mid-level lapse rates steepen, yielding weak instability after 06Z. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California and southern Oregon Coast on Saturday night. ...Discussion... On Saturday, the large scale pattern will feature a trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across the western CONUS and another larger scale trough approaching the West Coast. Beneath this ridge, an upper low will translate east across the Southwest. A dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential across most of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. A few lightning flashes may be possible late along the northern California/southern Oregon coast Saturday night as temperatures cool aloft and mid-level lapse rates steepen, yielding weak instability after 06Z. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California and southern Oregon Coast on Saturday night. ...Discussion... On Saturday, the large scale pattern will feature a trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across the western CONUS and another larger scale trough approaching the West Coast. Beneath this ridge, an upper low will translate east across the Southwest. A dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential across most of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. A few lightning flashes may be possible late along the northern California/southern Oregon coast Saturday night as temperatures cool aloft and mid-level lapse rates steepen, yielding weak instability after 06Z. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more