Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern states with time. Within the broader area of cyclonic flow, a shorter-wavelength trough is forecast to dig aggressively southeastward out of the Upper Midwest, across the Ohio Valley through the day, across the Appalachians during the evening, and then should reach the eastern seaboard by the end of the period. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the upper trough will provide modest CAPE, with background ascent supporting development of scattered showers. A few lightning flashes will be possible within the evolving convection; the thunder area is being expanded to include portions of the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley where a couple of weak, low-topped storms may develop near peak heating. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected, with the eastern Pacific upper low expected to remain offshore through early Friday. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern states with time. Within the broader area of cyclonic flow, a shorter-wavelength trough is forecast to dig aggressively southeastward out of the Upper Midwest, across the Ohio Valley through the day, across the Appalachians during the evening, and then should reach the eastern seaboard by the end of the period. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the upper trough will provide modest CAPE, with background ascent supporting development of scattered showers. A few lightning flashes will be possible within the evolving convection; the thunder area is being expanded to include portions of the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley where a couple of weak, low-topped storms may develop near peak heating. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected, with the eastern Pacific upper low expected to remain offshore through early Friday. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern states with time. Within the broader area of cyclonic flow, a shorter-wavelength trough is forecast to dig aggressively southeastward out of the Upper Midwest, across the Ohio Valley through the day, across the Appalachians during the evening, and then should reach the eastern seaboard by the end of the period. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the upper trough will provide modest CAPE, with background ascent supporting development of scattered showers. A few lightning flashes will be possible within the evolving convection; the thunder area is being expanded to include portions of the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley where a couple of weak, low-topped storms may develop near peak heating. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected, with the eastern Pacific upper low expected to remain offshore through early Friday. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern states with time. Within the broader area of cyclonic flow, a shorter-wavelength trough is forecast to dig aggressively southeastward out of the Upper Midwest, across the Ohio Valley through the day, across the Appalachians during the evening, and then should reach the eastern seaboard by the end of the period. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the upper trough will provide modest CAPE, with background ascent supporting development of scattered showers. A few lightning flashes will be possible within the evolving convection; the thunder area is being expanded to include portions of the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley where a couple of weak, low-topped storms may develop near peak heating. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected, with the eastern Pacific upper low expected to remain offshore through early Friday. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. 16 UTC surface observations show breezy post-frontal conditions across western OK into the TX Panhandle with 25-35 mph winds sampled within the lowest 1 km, but above a shallow nocturnal inversion (sampled by the 12 UTC OUN, AMA, and DDC soundings). The expectation remains that winds will further strengthen through the afternoon as these stronger winds begin to mix to the surface amid full diurnal heating. Across southern NM/southeast AZ, very dry conditions are noted in surface observations with strong mid-level winds depicted in recent upper-air analyses, which supports the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level ridging is forecast to intensify today and tonight as split westerly flow develops over the CONUS. A low-latitude shortwave trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest, while a cold front moves across the Great Plains. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the Southwest and behind the cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of the Southwest this afternoon and evening. Stronger westerly flow aloft will overlap with dry and warm conditions across parts of southern AZ and NM. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels are around the 75th percentile for dryness with no recent precipitation. With afternoon RH below 15% and wind gusts of 15-25 mph several hours of elevated fire-weather potential appear likely within dry fuels. ...Southern High Plains... As the cold front moves southward over the Plains, gusty northerly winds are expected over parts of southeastern CO and western OK/TX and KS. Afternoon min RH values of near 25% will overlap with gusts of 20-30 mph before temperatures begin to cool and RH increases. Some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible across the southern High Plains for a few hours later this afternoon. While area fuels are not overly receptive and should limit the broader fire-weather risk, little recent rainfall may support some fire-weather concerns within denser dry grasses over portions of OK/TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. 16 UTC surface observations show breezy post-frontal conditions across western OK into the TX Panhandle with 25-35 mph winds sampled within the lowest 1 km, but above a shallow nocturnal inversion (sampled by the 12 UTC OUN, AMA, and DDC soundings). The expectation remains that winds will further strengthen through the afternoon as these stronger winds begin to mix to the surface amid full diurnal heating. Across southern NM/southeast AZ, very dry conditions are noted in surface observations with strong mid-level winds depicted in recent upper-air analyses, which supports the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level ridging is forecast to intensify today and tonight as split westerly flow develops over the CONUS. A low-latitude shortwave trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest, while a cold front moves across the Great Plains. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the Southwest and behind the cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of the Southwest this afternoon and evening. Stronger westerly flow aloft will overlap with dry and warm conditions across parts of southern AZ and NM. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels are around the 75th percentile for dryness with no recent precipitation. With afternoon RH below 15% and wind gusts of 15-25 mph several hours of elevated fire-weather potential appear likely within dry fuels. ...Southern High Plains... As the cold front moves southward over the Plains, gusty northerly winds are expected over parts of southeastern CO and western OK/TX and KS. Afternoon min RH values of near 25% will overlap with gusts of 20-30 mph before temperatures begin to cool and RH increases. Some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible across the southern High Plains for a few hours later this afternoon. While area fuels are not overly receptive and should limit the broader fire-weather risk, little recent rainfall may support some fire-weather concerns within denser dry grasses over portions of OK/TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. 16 UTC surface observations show breezy post-frontal conditions across western OK into the TX Panhandle with 25-35 mph winds sampled within the lowest 1 km, but above a shallow nocturnal inversion (sampled by the 12 UTC OUN, AMA, and DDC soundings). The expectation remains that winds will further strengthen through the afternoon as these stronger winds begin to mix to the surface amid full diurnal heating. Across southern NM/southeast AZ, very dry conditions are noted in surface observations with strong mid-level winds depicted in recent upper-air analyses, which supports the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level ridging is forecast to intensify today and tonight as split westerly flow develops over the CONUS. A low-latitude shortwave trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest, while a cold front moves across the Great Plains. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the Southwest and behind the cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of the Southwest this afternoon and evening. Stronger westerly flow aloft will overlap with dry and warm conditions across parts of southern AZ and NM. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels are around the 75th percentile for dryness with no recent precipitation. With afternoon RH below 15% and wind gusts of 15-25 mph several hours of elevated fire-weather potential appear likely within dry fuels. ...Southern High Plains... As the cold front moves southward over the Plains, gusty northerly winds are expected over parts of southeastern CO and western OK/TX and KS. Afternoon min RH values of near 25% will overlap with gusts of 20-30 mph before temperatures begin to cool and RH increases. Some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible across the southern High Plains for a few hours later this afternoon. While area fuels are not overly receptive and should limit the broader fire-weather risk, little recent rainfall may support some fire-weather concerns within denser dry grasses over portions of OK/TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Weinman.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Weinman.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor north-northeastward expansion of the general thunderstorm area in north-central CO. Here, cumulus clouds have been gradually deepening over the high terrain this afternoon, and a few lightning flashes have been noted over the past 30 minutes. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 25 20:03:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 25 20:03:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed for the forecast Wednesday. In addition to the Elevated area across southwestern NM and far southeastern AZ, breezy northerly winds around 20 to 25 mph juxtaposed with RH dropping into the teens and single digits are anticipated near the CA/NV/AZ border regions. However, considering most of this area contains very low fuel loading and moisture states are near normal, an additional Elevated does not appear warranted at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A building surface high across the Intermountian West will increase surface westerly pressure gradients across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico on D2 - Wednesday. Guidance suggests there will be overlap of sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph with relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels across southern New Mexico into southern Arizona are around the 75th percentile for dryness. Ensemble guidance from HREF suggests high likelihood of several hours of Elevated fire weather conditions. A small Elevated region was added to cover this potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed for the forecast Wednesday. In addition to the Elevated area across southwestern NM and far southeastern AZ, breezy northerly winds around 20 to 25 mph juxtaposed with RH dropping into the teens and single digits are anticipated near the CA/NV/AZ border regions. However, considering most of this area contains very low fuel loading and moisture states are near normal, an additional Elevated does not appear warranted at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A building surface high across the Intermountian West will increase surface westerly pressure gradients across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico on D2 - Wednesday. Guidance suggests there will be overlap of sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph with relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels across southern New Mexico into southern Arizona are around the 75th percentile for dryness. Ensemble guidance from HREF suggests high likelihood of several hours of Elevated fire weather conditions. A small Elevated region was added to cover this potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more