Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest TX/the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Recent guidance suggests 15-20 mph winds will likely develop across the TX Panhandle into much of OK by late afternoon as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens. Given an expanding swath of 80+ percentile ERC values across the region, fire weather concerns appears probable. Stronger winds are anticipated from northeast OK into portions of central MO and western IL ahead of a cold front, and some areas may see RH reductions into the 20-25% range. Consideration was given to expanding the new Elevated risk area east/northeast into these regions, but confidence on fuel status is more limited based on recent ERC and 10-hour fuel analyses. Forecast concerns regarding the central Plains remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest TX/the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Recent guidance suggests 15-20 mph winds will likely develop across the TX Panhandle into much of OK by late afternoon as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens. Given an expanding swath of 80+ percentile ERC values across the region, fire weather concerns appears probable. Stronger winds are anticipated from northeast OK into portions of central MO and western IL ahead of a cold front, and some areas may see RH reductions into the 20-25% range. Consideration was given to expanding the new Elevated risk area east/northeast into these regions, but confidence on fuel status is more limited based on recent ERC and 10-hour fuel analyses. Forecast concerns regarding the central Plains remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest TX/the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Recent guidance suggests 15-20 mph winds will likely develop across the TX Panhandle into much of OK by late afternoon as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens. Given an expanding swath of 80+ percentile ERC values across the region, fire weather concerns appears probable. Stronger winds are anticipated from northeast OK into portions of central MO and western IL ahead of a cold front, and some areas may see RH reductions into the 20-25% range. Consideration was given to expanding the new Elevated risk area east/northeast into these regions, but confidence on fuel status is more limited based on recent ERC and 10-hour fuel analyses. Forecast concerns regarding the central Plains remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest TX/the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Recent guidance suggests 15-20 mph winds will likely develop across the TX Panhandle into much of OK by late afternoon as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens. Given an expanding swath of 80+ percentile ERC values across the region, fire weather concerns appears probable. Stronger winds are anticipated from northeast OK into portions of central MO and western IL ahead of a cold front, and some areas may see RH reductions into the 20-25% range. Consideration was given to expanding the new Elevated risk area east/northeast into these regions, but confidence on fuel status is more limited based on recent ERC and 10-hour fuel analyses. Forecast concerns regarding the central Plains remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest TX/the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Recent guidance suggests 15-20 mph winds will likely develop across the TX Panhandle into much of OK by late afternoon as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens. Given an expanding swath of 80+ percentile ERC values across the region, fire weather concerns appears probable. Stronger winds are anticipated from northeast OK into portions of central MO and western IL ahead of a cold front, and some areas may see RH reductions into the 20-25% range. Consideration was given to expanding the new Elevated risk area east/northeast into these regions, but confidence on fuel status is more limited based on recent ERC and 10-hour fuel analyses. Forecast concerns regarding the central Plains remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest TX/the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Recent guidance suggests 15-20 mph winds will likely develop across the TX Panhandle into much of OK by late afternoon as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens. Given an expanding swath of 80+ percentile ERC values across the region, fire weather concerns appears probable. Stronger winds are anticipated from northeast OK into portions of central MO and western IL ahead of a cold front, and some areas may see RH reductions into the 20-25% range. Consideration was given to expanding the new Elevated risk area east/northeast into these regions, but confidence on fuel status is more limited based on recent ERC and 10-hour fuel analyses. Forecast concerns regarding the central Plains remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest TX/the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Recent guidance suggests 15-20 mph winds will likely develop across the TX Panhandle into much of OK by late afternoon as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens. Given an expanding swath of 80+ percentile ERC values across the region, fire weather concerns appears probable. Stronger winds are anticipated from northeast OK into portions of central MO and western IL ahead of a cold front, and some areas may see RH reductions into the 20-25% range. Consideration was given to expanding the new Elevated risk area east/northeast into these regions, but confidence on fuel status is more limited based on recent ERC and 10-hour fuel analyses. Forecast concerns regarding the central Plains remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Low thunderstorm chances may develop into parts of southern and central California Friday night. ...Synopsis... Substantial offshore flow will exist along the East Coast and trailing into the northern Gulf of America on Friday, as a shortwave trough moves out the Northeast. Behind this feature, another wave will expand southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Saturday morning. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes in association with the developing upper trough, with a new surge of high pressure spreading south across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. West of this regime, a compact upper low will move eastward toward southern CA, providing increasing lift and cooling aloft, with isolated weak thunderstorm activity possible. ...Southern CA... As the upper low approaches, midlevel temperatures will cool, steepening lapse rates. Elevated instability may develop after 00Z north of the low where minimal moisture and lift will coexist. Forecast soundings suggest a few lightning flashes may result as MUCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg develops. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Low thunderstorm chances may develop into parts of southern and central California Friday night. ...Synopsis... Substantial offshore flow will exist along the East Coast and trailing into the northern Gulf of America on Friday, as a shortwave trough moves out the Northeast. Behind this feature, another wave will expand southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Saturday morning. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes in association with the developing upper trough, with a new surge of high pressure spreading south across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. West of this regime, a compact upper low will move eastward toward southern CA, providing increasing lift and cooling aloft, with isolated weak thunderstorm activity possible. ...Southern CA... As the upper low approaches, midlevel temperatures will cool, steepening lapse rates. Elevated instability may develop after 00Z north of the low where minimal moisture and lift will coexist. Forecast soundings suggest a few lightning flashes may result as MUCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg develops. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Low thunderstorm chances may develop into parts of southern and central California Friday night. ...Synopsis... Substantial offshore flow will exist along the East Coast and trailing into the northern Gulf of America on Friday, as a shortwave trough moves out the Northeast. Behind this feature, another wave will expand southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Saturday morning. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes in association with the developing upper trough, with a new surge of high pressure spreading south across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. West of this regime, a compact upper low will move eastward toward southern CA, providing increasing lift and cooling aloft, with isolated weak thunderstorm activity possible. ...Southern CA... As the upper low approaches, midlevel temperatures will cool, steepening lapse rates. Elevated instability may develop after 00Z north of the low where minimal moisture and lift will coexist. Forecast soundings suggest a few lightning flashes may result as MUCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg develops. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Low thunderstorm chances may develop into parts of southern and central California Friday night. ...Synopsis... Substantial offshore flow will exist along the East Coast and trailing into the northern Gulf of America on Friday, as a shortwave trough moves out the Northeast. Behind this feature, another wave will expand southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Saturday morning. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes in association with the developing upper trough, with a new surge of high pressure spreading south across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. West of this regime, a compact upper low will move eastward toward southern CA, providing increasing lift and cooling aloft, with isolated weak thunderstorm activity possible. ...Southern CA... As the upper low approaches, midlevel temperatures will cool, steepening lapse rates. Elevated instability may develop after 00Z north of the low where minimal moisture and lift will coexist. Forecast soundings suggest a few lightning flashes may result as MUCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg develops. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Low thunderstorm chances may develop into parts of southern and central California Friday night. ...Synopsis... Substantial offshore flow will exist along the East Coast and trailing into the northern Gulf of America on Friday, as a shortwave trough moves out the Northeast. Behind this feature, another wave will expand southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Saturday morning. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes in association with the developing upper trough, with a new surge of high pressure spreading south across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. West of this regime, a compact upper low will move eastward toward southern CA, providing increasing lift and cooling aloft, with isolated weak thunderstorm activity possible. ...Southern CA... As the upper low approaches, midlevel temperatures will cool, steepening lapse rates. Elevated instability may develop after 00Z north of the low where minimal moisture and lift will coexist. Forecast soundings suggest a few lightning flashes may result as MUCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg develops. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Low thunderstorm chances may develop into parts of southern and central California Friday night. ...Synopsis... Substantial offshore flow will exist along the East Coast and trailing into the northern Gulf of America on Friday, as a shortwave trough moves out the Northeast. Behind this feature, another wave will expand southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Saturday morning. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes in association with the developing upper trough, with a new surge of high pressure spreading south across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. West of this regime, a compact upper low will move eastward toward southern CA, providing increasing lift and cooling aloft, with isolated weak thunderstorm activity possible. ...Southern CA... As the upper low approaches, midlevel temperatures will cool, steepening lapse rates. Elevated instability may develop after 00Z north of the low where minimal moisture and lift will coexist. Forecast soundings suggest a few lightning flashes may result as MUCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg develops. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Low thunderstorm chances may develop into parts of southern and central California Friday night. ...Synopsis... Substantial offshore flow will exist along the East Coast and trailing into the northern Gulf of America on Friday, as a shortwave trough moves out the Northeast. Behind this feature, another wave will expand southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Saturday morning. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes in association with the developing upper trough, with a new surge of high pressure spreading south across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. West of this regime, a compact upper low will move eastward toward southern CA, providing increasing lift and cooling aloft, with isolated weak thunderstorm activity possible. ...Southern CA... As the upper low approaches, midlevel temperatures will cool, steepening lapse rates. Elevated instability may develop after 00Z north of the low where minimal moisture and lift will coexist. Forecast soundings suggest a few lightning flashes may result as MUCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg develops. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 02/27/2025 Read more