Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southwest Kansas on Sunday. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently in the lower Colorado Valley will eject into the southern High Plains by early afternoon on Sunday. A modest surface low will develop in response to this feature and will generally track through the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma. Moisture return on the western flank of the surface high to the east will be relatively weak. However, with 50s F dewpoints in portions of Central Texas, it is possible that mid/upper 40s F could return into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma vicinity during the afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Vicinity... With the approach of the compact shortwave trough, some elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. This activity will move northeastward and may persist into the early/mid afternoon in some areas. The primary severe risk will be associated with the surface low and whatever destabilization is able to occur in the wake of the early activity. As mentioned, moisture will be rather modest. Compensating for this, however, will be very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C in the core of the upper low/trough). At lest a narrow band of buoyancy is expected to develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. A strong mid-level jet on the southern/eastern flank of the upper trough will promote at least marginal supercell structures capable of large hail and strong/marginally severe winds. Storms are more likely to be elevated farther north into Kansas and east into central Oklahoma. Even so, small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong gusts would be possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southwest Kansas on Sunday. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently in the lower Colorado Valley will eject into the southern High Plains by early afternoon on Sunday. A modest surface low will develop in response to this feature and will generally track through the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma. Moisture return on the western flank of the surface high to the east will be relatively weak. However, with 50s F dewpoints in portions of Central Texas, it is possible that mid/upper 40s F could return into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma vicinity during the afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Vicinity... With the approach of the compact shortwave trough, some elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. This activity will move northeastward and may persist into the early/mid afternoon in some areas. The primary severe risk will be associated with the surface low and whatever destabilization is able to occur in the wake of the early activity. As mentioned, moisture will be rather modest. Compensating for this, however, will be very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C in the core of the upper low/trough). At lest a narrow band of buoyancy is expected to develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. A strong mid-level jet on the southern/eastern flank of the upper trough will promote at least marginal supercell structures capable of large hail and strong/marginally severe winds. Storms are more likely to be elevated farther north into Kansas and east into central Oklahoma. Even so, small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong gusts would be possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southwest Kansas on Sunday. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently in the lower Colorado Valley will eject into the southern High Plains by early afternoon on Sunday. A modest surface low will develop in response to this feature and will generally track through the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma. Moisture return on the western flank of the surface high to the east will be relatively weak. However, with 50s F dewpoints in portions of Central Texas, it is possible that mid/upper 40s F could return into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma vicinity during the afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Vicinity... With the approach of the compact shortwave trough, some elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. This activity will move northeastward and may persist into the early/mid afternoon in some areas. The primary severe risk will be associated with the surface low and whatever destabilization is able to occur in the wake of the early activity. As mentioned, moisture will be rather modest. Compensating for this, however, will be very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C in the core of the upper low/trough). At lest a narrow band of buoyancy is expected to develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. A strong mid-level jet on the southern/eastern flank of the upper trough will promote at least marginal supercell structures capable of large hail and strong/marginally severe winds. Storms are more likely to be elevated farther north into Kansas and east into central Oklahoma. Even so, small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong gusts would be possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southwest Kansas on Sunday. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently in the lower Colorado Valley will eject into the southern High Plains by early afternoon on Sunday. A modest surface low will develop in response to this feature and will generally track through the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma. Moisture return on the western flank of the surface high to the east will be relatively weak. However, with 50s F dewpoints in portions of Central Texas, it is possible that mid/upper 40s F could return into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma vicinity during the afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Vicinity... With the approach of the compact shortwave trough, some elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. This activity will move northeastward and may persist into the early/mid afternoon in some areas. The primary severe risk will be associated with the surface low and whatever destabilization is able to occur in the wake of the early activity. As mentioned, moisture will be rather modest. Compensating for this, however, will be very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C in the core of the upper low/trough). At lest a narrow band of buoyancy is expected to develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. A strong mid-level jet on the southern/eastern flank of the upper trough will promote at least marginal supercell structures capable of large hail and strong/marginally severe winds. Storms are more likely to be elevated farther north into Kansas and east into central Oklahoma. Even so, small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong gusts would be possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southwest Kansas on Sunday. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently in the lower Colorado Valley will eject into the southern High Plains by early afternoon on Sunday. A modest surface low will develop in response to this feature and will generally track through the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma. Moisture return on the western flank of the surface high to the east will be relatively weak. However, with 50s F dewpoints in portions of Central Texas, it is possible that mid/upper 40s F could return into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma vicinity during the afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Vicinity... With the approach of the compact shortwave trough, some elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. This activity will move northeastward and may persist into the early/mid afternoon in some areas. The primary severe risk will be associated with the surface low and whatever destabilization is able to occur in the wake of the early activity. As mentioned, moisture will be rather modest. Compensating for this, however, will be very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C in the core of the upper low/trough). At lest a narrow band of buoyancy is expected to develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. A strong mid-level jet on the southern/eastern flank of the upper trough will promote at least marginal supercell structures capable of large hail and strong/marginally severe winds. Storms are more likely to be elevated farther north into Kansas and east into central Oklahoma. Even so, small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong gusts would be possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southwest Kansas on Sunday. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently in the lower Colorado Valley will eject into the southern High Plains by early afternoon on Sunday. A modest surface low will develop in response to this feature and will generally track through the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma. Moisture return on the western flank of the surface high to the east will be relatively weak. However, with 50s F dewpoints in portions of Central Texas, it is possible that mid/upper 40s F could return into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma vicinity during the afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Vicinity... With the approach of the compact shortwave trough, some elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. This activity will move northeastward and may persist into the early/mid afternoon in some areas. The primary severe risk will be associated with the surface low and whatever destabilization is able to occur in the wake of the early activity. As mentioned, moisture will be rather modest. Compensating for this, however, will be very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C in the core of the upper low/trough). At lest a narrow band of buoyancy is expected to develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. A strong mid-level jet on the southern/eastern flank of the upper trough will promote at least marginal supercell structures capable of large hail and strong/marginally severe winds. Storms are more likely to be elevated farther north into Kansas and east into central Oklahoma. Even so, small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong gusts would be possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more