Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The probability of widespread fire-weather conditions is low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A benign upper pattern will prevail over the U.S. tomorrow/Saturday, promoting relatively weak surface winds across the CONUS. Rich low-level moisture will accompany the weaker surface winds, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential in most locales. Dry air will meander across the lower Colorado River Basin, but the weaker surface winds suggest that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0252 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0252 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 252 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 012100Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify through late afternoon, especially near a boundary across the region where the air mass is very moist and unstable. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Hobbs NM to 85 miles east northeast of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0915 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN OK...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AND FAR NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0915 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Areas affected...Parts of western OK...far south-central KS...and far northwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012036Z - 012230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and strong to locally severe gusts will be possible this afternoon. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered storms are evolving over western Oklahoma this afternoon -- along the eastern edge of outflow from earlier convection over the TX Panhandle. Downstream, efficient diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (middle 60s surface dewpoints) is destabilizing inflow for this activity. While VWP data shows generally weak midlevel flow over the area, a veering low/midlevel winds profile combined with the destabilizing air mass could support a few loosely organized updrafts capable of sporadic marginally severe hail and strong to locally severe gusts this afternoon. Any severe threat should remain too isolated for a watch. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT... LAT...LON 33939975 34319968 34939946 36089931 37139921 37299884 37269841 36979818 36439808 35609810 34669827 33769846 33429867 33379914 33449937 33629958 33939975 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail along with a severe wind/tornado risk will remain focused across far eastern New Mexico and west Texas late this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the severe probabilities across the southern High Plains, based on recent observational trends regarding the position of an outflow boundary and the movement of a small semi-organized storm cluster across parts of the TX South Plains. Some threat for localized severe hail/wind cannot be ruled out with the ongoing storm cluster as it moves eastward through the remainder of the afternoon, with some modest destabilization noted downstream. Along the trailing outflow, at least isolated development will be possible, given that some recovery is occurring in the wake of earlier convection. Any supercell that can move east-southeastward along the outflow later this afternoon and evening would pose a conditional risk for all severe hazards. Elsewhere, no changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 06/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023/ ...Southern High Plains including Eastern NM/West TX... Key mesoscale factors for severe-weather potential later today are a composite outflow boundary and zone of differential heating/baroclinicity that extends roughly west-east across southeast New Mexico and the Texas South Plains. Convection continues to redevelop into midday and reinforce the aggregate/primary boundary across the aforementioned corridor, casting uncertainty/doubts on more northward-aggressive (with respect to boundary/destabilization) guidance such as the 12z NAM. Regardless, satellite/surface observations and related trends imply that ample heating will occur to the west/south of this boundary within an air mass that continues to remain rather moist (upper-end of daily climatological values). The strongest destabilization is expected to occur across the Texas South Plains and far southeast New Mexico, which is where severe potential later today is expected to be maximized in vicinity of the modifying outflow boundary. Owing to moderately strong mid-level southwesterly winds (and considerably stronger high-level winds), wind profiles will be supportive of initial supercells capable of large hail. At least some tornado potential will be semi-focused in vicinity of the modifying boundary, although low-level winds are not expected to be overly strong, which should tend to limit the overall tornado likelihood and risk magnitude. Storms may again cluster with a somewhat localized but increasing potential for severe-caliber winds by early evening, potentially toward parts of the Texas Low Rolling Plains. Farther to the northwest, somewhat more modest, but potentially severe-conducive, destabilization is expected as far northwest as east-central/northeast New Mexico, with isolated instances of severe hail as the most probable hazard this afternoon and early evening. ...North-central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening, near the dryline/lee trough, from near I-80 northward over the Nebraska Panhandle and eastern Wyoming toward the Black Hills vicinity. This activity may be associated with a corridor of relatively maximized large-scale ascent aloft, ahead of a minor shortwave trough ejecting northward out of northern Colorado. Although mid/upper-level lapse rates will be seasonally modest over this region, surface dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s F may support pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level/deep-layer shear are forecast, but isolated instances of severe hail and/or severe-caliber wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Latest guidance continues to show a swath of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the Trans Pecos region of far West TX, but fuels remain only modestly dry. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across northern Mexico and weaken as it ejects into West Texas on Friday. Lee troughing will develop from the central into the southern High Plains regions. Dry and windy conditions are likely across much of the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend areas. RH could fall as low as 10% with winds of 15-20 mph. Overall, however, fuel information continues to suggest relatively low potential for fires. ERC charts from TICC show values that are below normal for this time of year. Furthermore, this region has seen rainfall over the past week. Locally elevated conditions are still possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Compared to previous days, relatively limited morning convection is currently anticipated across the southern High Plains on Friday. This will allow for diurnal heating of a moist environment, with 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching as far west as extreme southeast NM. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico during the morning and into parts of the southern Rockies/High Plains during the afternoon, which would be favorably timed for scattered thunderstorm development within an unstable and favorably sheared environment. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) will support a conditionally favorable environment for very large hail. The strongest deep-layer shear is expected over portions of the TX South Plains and Permian Basin, in association with a moderate subtropical jet, and a few intense supercells will be possible in this region, with an attendant threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. Low-level shear/SRH is expected to remain relatively modest, but will be sufficient to support a threat of a couple of tornadoes as well. An Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) has been added where the greatest risk of supercells producing very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) is currently anticipated. Severe storms will also be possible farther north into parts of the TX Panhandle, though weaker deep-layer shear may result in a mix of convective modes. Some upscale growth is possible with time as storms move eastward toward the TX Big Country region, which could increase the threat of severe gusts, though weaker shear with eastward extent may tend to limit the organization of any outflow-driven clusters into Friday evening. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong storms will be possible into parts of the central High Plains Friday afternoon/evening, along the northern fringe of somewhat stronger midlevel flow/deep-layer shear associated with a gradually weakening upper-level trough. A few organized multicells and perhaps a supercell or two are possible, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally strong/severe gusts. ...Northeast... Weak deep-layer northerly flow will persist across the region on the eastern periphery of a Great Lakes upper anticyclone. Some modest midlevel cooling and weak ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough from Quebec, in combination with relatively favorable moisture/instability, will support isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Vertical shear will remain very weak, limiting longevity and organization of strong updrafts. Nevertheless, relatively steep low/midlevel lapse rates could support a few strong gusts and small hail in stronger cells. ..Dean.. 06/01/2023 Read more

MD 0910 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WY...SOUTHWESTERN SD...NORTHERN CO...AND THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0910 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Areas affected...Parts of eastern WY...southwestern SD...northern CO...and the NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312039Z - 312315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail and perhaps locally severe winds are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating coupled with moist easterly upslope flow (middle/upper 50s dewpoints) is supporting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development along/east of the higher terrain in western SD/eastern WY southward into northern CO. VWP data shows a belt of 20-25-kt midlevel flow atop the low-level easterlies -- yielding around 25-35 kt of effective shear. As storms continue to evolve and eventually spread eastward into the richer low-level moisture, a couple instances of large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with the more-organized updrafts. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43060460 43760444 44150416 44350368 44380296 44260259 43900226 42160266 41360291 40810310 40320342 39950373 39610409 39580445 39660491 39850514 40400515 40920506 41570486 41980475 42460467 43060460 Read more

WW 0251 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0251 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 251 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 312025Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon, initially across east-central/southeast New Mexico and the Transpecos of far west Texas. Within a moist/moderately unstable environment, this will include the potential for supercells capable of large hail. Some tornado risk will also exist, particularly near a boundary across east-central New Mexico eastward toward the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. A few clusters of storms within an increased severe wind potential may develop by early evening as storms progress toward and east of the New Mexico/Texas border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Tucumcari NM to 45 miles south southwest of Wink TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible later this afternoon and evening over portions of the southern High Plains including eastern New Mexico and west/northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... The northwestern portion of the Slight Risk was trimmed slightly across northeast NM, where relatively cool and stable conditions are noted in the wake of ongoing convection. Otherwise, no changes have been made to the risk areas across the southern High Plains. See MCD 908 and the previous discussion below for more information regarding the severe threat in that area. A Marginal Risk has been added across northwest IA into southwest MN and adjacent portions of northeast SD/southeast ND, in conjunction with an MCV moving across the region. Modestly organized storms capable of isolated hail and localized downbursts will remain possible through the rest of the afternoon. See MCD 907 for more information. Elsewhere, no changes have been made. See MCD 909 for more information regarding the short-term threat in southeast CO/southwest KS, and the previous discussion below for more information elsewhere. ..Dean.. 05/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... Severe-thunderstorm potential will be maximized across the region later this afternoon into evening, with large hail, severe-caliber wind gust and tornado risks. An MCS continues to decay at late morning near the western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity, with lingering cold pool influences across the OK/TX Panhandles. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms have become increasing prevalent across east-central/northeast Mexico this morning, seemingly related to a weak/lead mid-level impulse preceding the upper low centered near the Lower Colorado River Valley. The aforementioned ongoing early day convection across eastern New Mexico casts some uncertainty for later today. However, the south/southwest fringes of this stronger/more sustained convection should be favored areas for more robust/semi-discrete development later today, including in vicinity of modifying outflow and near higher terrain of east-central New Mexico. This should provide a net peak focus for areas along/south of I-40 this afternoon across east-central New Mexico, and into nearby west Texas/Texas South Plains by early evening. This will include initial semi-discrete supercells capable of large hail, including potentially significant hailstones (2+ inch diameter). This is where buoyancy is likely to be maximized with 35-45 kt effective shear. Some tornado potential will exist as well, particularly in vicinity of remnant/modifying outflow. Storm mergers and gradual upscale growth with some increase in severe-caliber wind potential should occur this evening eastward toward the New Mexico/Texas border region into the Texas South Plains vicinity and parts of the Texas Panhandle. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms are still expected to form this afternoon near the dryline/lee trough and on higher terrain features, such as the Black Hills and Rockies foothills. Ample heating, steep lapse rates and 40s/50s F dewpoints will support upwards of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon. Mid/high-level winds will be relatively weak with a multicellular mode prevalent. Relatively isolated instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts can be expected, particularly late this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across southern NM with pockets of critical conditions probable in areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Elevated wind/RH conditions may extend well to the north and east of the current risk area, but the potential for wetting rainfall over the next 18 hours continues to cast uncertainty on fuel status. Further adjustments may be needed depending on rainfall today and tonight. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Though the Southwest upper trough will lose amplitude on Thursday, enhanced mid-level winds will persist across parts of central and southern New Mexico and extreme West Texas. The surface pattern will a bit less focused that on Wednesday, though some week troughing is expected in the lee of the southern/central Rockies. RH will again fall to 10-20% across much of western/central New Mexico during the afternoon. Winds will most likely range from 15-20 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for parts of central New Mexico. While these conditions may extend into parts of southeast New Mexico, there is potential for precipitation in these areas on Wednesday. Adjustments to the elevated area may occur depending on rainfall observations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across portions of the southern High Plains on Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern High Plains... A remnant MCS will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern High Plains. The evolution of this feature will greatly influence severe potential across the region, with the primary threat likely to be focused near any remnant outflow boundaries, and also potentially with some rejuvenation of morning convection during the afternoon and evening. At this time, the greatest relative severe threat appears to be across parts of the TX South Plains. An outflow boundary may become draped across this area during the afternoon, while mid/upper-level flow begins to increase in response to the eastward-moving mid/upper-level cyclone near the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of supercells may evolve near the outflow boundary, along the southern periphery of any MCV that might develop from extensive convection farther north. Large hail would likely be the primary threat, especially with any supercells that persist into the evening as mid/upper-level flow continues to increase. Some tornado threat may also evolve, depending on the orientation of any outflow boundary relative to supercell motion, and the extent of modification that can occur on the cool side of the boundary. Farther north, some severe potential remains evident into the TX Panhandle and western OK, but uncertainty remains regarding the extent of morning convection and potential for destabilization during the afternoon. Morning storms could intensify as they move eastward during the afternoon, with veering wind profiles supporting some modestly organized cells/clusters and an attendant threat of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. Farther west into east-central NM, modest instability and favorably veered wind profiles (likely influenced somewhat by outflow) may support a strong cell or two capable of isolated large hail during the afternoon. ...Northern High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is possible across much of MT and adjacent portions of the northern High Plains, generally to the north and east of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough over portions of the northern Rockies. Weak deep-layer shear should generally limit storm organization, and any more focused areas of severe potential remain unclear at this time, though some severe probabilities may eventually be needed for portions of the region. ..Dean.. 05/31/2023 Read more

MD 0901 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0901 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Areas affected...Southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 302201Z - 310000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely late this afternoon. Storms will moving east of the higher terrain will eventually encounter greater moisture and intensity. Strong to severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. Isolated large hail is also possible. DISCUSSION...Storms developing within the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and have generally been slow to move east and have shown pulses in intensity over the past hour or so. As these storms move east, they will encounter greater moisture/buoyancy and will likely intensify. A reservoir of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE sits just into western Kansas southward into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Flow aloft is not particularly strong; however, with a subtle shortwave moving into New Mexico per water vapor imagery, some breakdown in the shortwave ridging in the region is noted. Area VWP have captured a modest increase in 6 km winds (25-30 kts). Modestly organized storms in this very steep mid-level lapse rate environment will likely produce strong to severe outflow winds. A few initial updrafts may also produce large hail. Based on the current evolution of storms and recent guidance, it seems probable that storms will first intensify in western Kansas before farther south. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely late this afternoon. ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 38200151 37760067 36510052 35280104 34830125 34770167 34830279 35200304 35820311 36840311 37950272 38200151 Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0249 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 249 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 302155Z - 310500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multicell clusters should intensify as they spread east across the central High Plains this evening. Severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northeast of Alliance NE to 50 miles south southeast of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Grams Read more

MD 0900 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0900 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 302134Z - 302300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...High-based convection is expected to increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe winds are the greatest risk, though isolated large hail can be expected. DISCUSSION...Surface heating across the central High Plains has minimized inhibition in the lee of the Rockies from southeast WY into northeast CO. As a result, scattered convection is beginning to increase in areal coverage, especially across southeast WY. This activity appears to be aided by a weak mid-level disturbance that is shifting east toward the central Plains. Southeasterly low-level inflow should contribute to eastward propagation as some increase in LLJ is expected after sunset. Additionally, scattered cu field is deepening along a weak surface boundary, just north of I-70 over northwest KS. Thunderstorms may continue to cluster along this zone of preferential low-level convergence over the next few hours. Severe winds should be the primary risk as convection organizes over the High Plains and potentially grows upscale as it progresses downstream this evening. ..Darrow/Grams.. 05/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40210363 42160389 42430248 41120137 39199971 38910196 40210363 Read more

MD 0899 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0899 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302005Z - 302230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts are possible across parts of central and northern Minnesota this afternoon and early evening. A watch is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a gradually deepening boundary-layer cumulus field in the vicinity of a weak confluence zone draped across parts of west-central Minnesota this afternoon. Continued diurnal heating amid somewhat sheltered boundary-layer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints) near the confluence zone and a mesoscale low should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the next few hours. Within the pre-convective environment, weak low-level warm-air advection beneath a belt of strengthening midlevel westerly flow should yield around 30-35 kt of effective shear with modest low-level hodograph curvature. This wind profile, coupled with the development of moderate surface-based instability will conditionally support supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging winds. Current thinking is that the severe threat may remain relatively isolated given the subtle forcing for ascent, though convective trends will be monitored through the afternoon. ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 45229335 44939384 44869438 44849504 44989544 45469577 45889567 46409546 46919529 47349514 47959498 48089488 48259450 48289398 48209349 48019314 47719296 46999277 46319280 45919294 45229335 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN COLORADO...AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts -- some reaching at least 75 mph -- are possible from this afternoon into early evening over portions of the central and southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. Convection developing near the higher terrain of CO (and adjacent portions of NM/WY) is expected to intensify later this afternoon and evening, as it moves eastward into an increasingly unstable environment. These storms are expected to pose a threat of severe gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) and isolated hail. See the previous discussion below for more information regarding the outlook reasoning. See MCD 897 for more information regarding the short-term threat across the High Plains, and MCD 898 for more information regarding the short-term threat across parts of the lower MO River Valley. ..Dean.. 05/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023/ ...Central High Plains... Morning model guidance shows a weak mid-level shortwave trough lifting northeastward through the four-corners region. Broad but weak large scale ascent ahead of this trough is resulting in a large patch of mid/high clouds moving across the central Rockies. This area of moisture will overspread the high plains of eastern CO/northeast NM by mid-afternoon. Full sunshine will lead to a very deep mixed layer with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, along with marginal CAPE. This should support scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms capable of dry microburst activity. As this convection and associated outflow boundaries spread eastward during the late afternoon and early evening, they will interact with a moist and very unstable air mass (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg) from western NE into far eastern CO, western KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles. Rapid intensification of storms will lead to more widespread and intense wind gusts during the evening, along with a few cells capable of large hail. Severe storms will persist for a few hours after dark, before diurnal cooling/decoupling weakens the threat. Given the high degree of agreement between 12z CAM solutions, will introduce a narrow ENH where greatest concern for damaging winds is apparent. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest guidance. Ensembles continue to depict relatively high probabilities of areas of 20+ mph winds coincident with 10-15% RH from far southeast AZ into western NM. Elevated fire weather conditions may extend further east than currently outlined into eastern/southeast NM during the early afternoon hours. However, increasing clouds/thunderstorm chances should limit the temporal duration of the fire weather threat. A few dry lightning strikes may occur in the vicinity of early initiating convection along the terrain of central/eastern NM, but early cells should quickly transition to wet thunderstorms as they migrate east into a higher PWAT environment. ..Moore.. 05/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Thursday, the southwestern upper-level low will become more of an open wave and reach the Four Corners by Friday morning. This feature will promote an increase in mid-level winds across Arizona and New Mexico. This increase in flow aloft will be better timed with afternoon heating. Furthermore, a deeper surface trough is expected from central New Mexico into the eastern Great Basin. ...Southwest... Winds of at least 15 mph are expected across parts of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. A stronger belt of winds is anticipated from southwest New Mexico into west-central New Mexico. There, winds of 20-25 mph are possible underneath the enhanced mid-level winds. With RH of 10-15% across this region, critical fire weather can be expected for a few hours during the afternoon. Elsewhere in the vicinity, elevated conditions are more probable, given the potential for 15-20% RH and lighter winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more