Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN COLORADO...AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts -- some reaching at least 75 mph -- are possible from this afternoon into early evening over portions of the central and southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. Convection developing near the higher terrain of CO (and adjacent portions of NM/WY) is expected to intensify later this afternoon and evening, as it moves eastward into an increasingly unstable environment. These storms are expected to pose a threat of severe gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) and isolated hail. See the previous discussion below for more information regarding the outlook reasoning. See MCD 897 for more information regarding the short-term threat across the High Plains, and MCD 898 for more information regarding the short-term threat across parts of the lower MO River Valley. ..Dean.. 05/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023/ ...Central High Plains... Morning model guidance shows a weak mid-level shortwave trough lifting northeastward through the four-corners region. Broad but weak large scale ascent ahead of this trough is resulting in a large patch of mid/high clouds moving across the central Rockies. This area of moisture will overspread the high plains of eastern CO/northeast NM by mid-afternoon. Full sunshine will lead to a very deep mixed layer with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, along with marginal CAPE. This should support scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms capable of dry microburst activity. As this convection and associated outflow boundaries spread eastward during the late afternoon and early evening, they will interact with a moist and very unstable air mass (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg) from western NE into far eastern CO, western KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles. Rapid intensification of storms will lead to more widespread and intense wind gusts during the evening, along with a few cells capable of large hail. Severe storms will persist for a few hours after dark, before diurnal cooling/decoupling weakens the threat. Given the high degree of agreement between 12z CAM solutions, will introduce a narrow ENH where greatest concern for damaging winds is apparent. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest guidance. Ensembles continue to depict relatively high probabilities of areas of 20+ mph winds coincident with 10-15% RH from far southeast AZ into western NM. Elevated fire weather conditions may extend further east than currently outlined into eastern/southeast NM during the early afternoon hours. However, increasing clouds/thunderstorm chances should limit the temporal duration of the fire weather threat. A few dry lightning strikes may occur in the vicinity of early initiating convection along the terrain of central/eastern NM, but early cells should quickly transition to wet thunderstorms as they migrate east into a higher PWAT environment. ..Moore.. 05/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Thursday, the southwestern upper-level low will become more of an open wave and reach the Four Corners by Friday morning. This feature will promote an increase in mid-level winds across Arizona and New Mexico. This increase in flow aloft will be better timed with afternoon heating. Furthermore, a deeper surface trough is expected from central New Mexico into the eastern Great Basin. ...Southwest... Winds of at least 15 mph are expected across parts of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. A stronger belt of winds is anticipated from southwest New Mexico into west-central New Mexico. There, winds of 20-25 mph are possible underneath the enhanced mid-level winds. With RH of 10-15% across this region, critical fire weather can be expected for a few hours during the afternoon. Elsewhere in the vicinity, elevated conditions are more probable, given the potential for 15-20% RH and lighter winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CO/NM...WESTERN KS...WEST TX...AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong gusts are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across the central and southern High Plains vicinity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone initially over southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward on Wednesday. Farther east, a weak mid/upper-level trough will persist over the Gulf of Mexico, while an upper ridge will remain over parts of the Northeast. A broad surface cyclone will move little over the eastern Great Basin, while a surface ridge remains in place over much of the eastern CONUS. Some deepening of a lee cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. ...Parts of the central/southern High Plains... Another day of active convection is expected across parts of the central/southern High Plains on Wednesday. The initial severe threat may be focused somewhat farther west compared to D1/Tuesday, with low-level southeasterly flow and the potential influence of outflow from Tuesday convection helping to increase low-level moisture closer to the higher terrain. Diurnal heating and embedded vorticity maxima in advance of the upper cyclone over the Southwest will support widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across terrain-favored regions, and also potentially farther east into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and west TX. Deep-layer flow will again be rather modest across the region, but favorably veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 25-35 kt (slightly stronger with southward extent), sufficient for some storm organization, including the potential for a few supercells. Moderate to strong instability will support some hail potential with the strongest semi-discrete storms. With time, outflow mergers may result in an increasing threat for severe gusts, especially if stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur downstream of initial storm development during the afternoon. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially if any supercells can persist into the evening, when some increase in low-level shear/SRH is expected. ...Eastern SD into northeast NE/northwest IA and central/southern MN... Guidance generally suggests that extensive convection on D1/Tuesday will generate an MCV that will move slowly northeastward somewhere across eastern SD/southwest MN and vicinity. Should this occur, there is some potential for the MCV to interact with a weak surface boundary and promote strong thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Uncertainty remains high regarding the intensity and track of any MCV development, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence in this scenario increases with time. ..Dean.. 05/30/2023 Read more

MD 0895 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0895 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Areas affected...Parts of South Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292214Z - 292345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible along a westward-moving boundary. Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible with the most intense storms. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed along a westward-moving Gulf breeze boundary. These storms are also aided by a weak trough moving through South Texas. Thus far, these storms have developed and intensified due to steep mid-level lapse rates and around 30 kts of effective shear (per mesoanlysis and area VAD profiles). However, the westward speed of the boundary is fast enough that storms quickly get undercut and weaken rather quickly. Additional development is most probable along the boundary. Storms will be capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. Should the boundary slow, it is possible that a storm could persist along it for a longer duration. The 12Z observed BRO sounding showed some warm air aloft around 800 mb. This casts some uncertainty on how far south storm robust storm development will occur. ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28429940 28829905 28669857 28309835 27829820 27119814 26459815 26009830 25959879 26379918 28429940 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening in parts of the central High Plains into Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Discussion... With current expectations in line with the ongoing outlook, no appreciable changes appear necessary with this update. For additional short-term information, please refer to MCD 893 and 894. ..Goss.. 05/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023/ ...Northern and Central Plains... A weak upper trough remains in place over the northern and central Plains states today, providing relatively cool temperatures aloft and subtle large-scale forcing for ascent across the region. This will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorm development, and at least some potential for hail and gusty winds. Forecast soundings throughout the region show moderately steep mid level lapse rates and just enough bulk shear for marginal organization. Therefore will maintain the MRGL risk for much of the region. One area that appears to have a slightly more favorable environment is along a weak surface confluence zone that extends from southwest to northeast NE. A consensus of CAM solutions suggest this narrow corridor will become convectively active by late afternoon. A 30-40 knot westerly mid-level jet will track across WY and nose into this region this evening, enhancing the deep-layer shear and further promoting a few severe storms, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...South TX... A weak upper trough is also tracking across TX today, where a very moist and moderately unstable air mass will develop this afternoon (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg). Winds aloft are sufficiently strong to aid in organization to any robust thunderstorms that can form. Given the 12z CAM solutions of widely scattered convection, will add a MRGL risk area for afternoon/evening hail and wind risk. Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0248 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 248 SEVERE TSTM CO NE 292015Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to intensify across western Nebraska and spread across the watch area. The strongest cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Ainsworth NE to 35 miles west of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong gusts and sporadic hail will be possible across parts of the central Plains vicinity on Tuesday. Additional strong to severe storms capable of producing hail are possible across parts of Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. ...Central High Plains east to central parts of Kansas/Nebraska... As a mid-level short-wave trough advances northeastward through the day and begins affecting the central High Plains area, scattered afternoon thunderstorm development is expected. Though convection will initially occur within what is expected to be only a weakly unstable environment near and west of the Front Range, more robust storms are expected to evolve nearer a lee trough, expected to reside over the eastern Colorado vicinity by late afternoon. While shear is not forecast to be particularly strong, modest mid-level west-southwesterlies atop low-level southeasterlies will provide a kinematic environment sufficient to allow a few updrafts to organize, with hail/wind near or in excess of severe levels possible with a few of the stronger cells. Some upscale growth is expected into the evening, as a low-level jet increases, likely allowing storms to persist and shift into the more unstable airmass anticipated at lower elevations. This may allow some severe risk to linger into the evening, before storms eventually weaken diurnally. ...Northern Iowa and Minnesota, and into western Wisconsin... A mid-level short-wave trough is progged to be crossing the eastern Dakotas early in the day, and will move into Minnesota during the afternoon. Near an associated/weak surface trough, storm development is expected as afternoon destabilization results in mixed-layer CAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. With some enhancement to the mid-level west-southwesterlies associated with the upper system, a few stronger/sustained storms are expected to evolve, with potential for a few instances of hail in excess of severe levels. This potential should peak through late afternoon, and then is expected to diminish through the evening as storm intensity subsides gradually. ..Goss.. 05/29/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun May 28 21:46:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 28 21:46:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western portions of the Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Hail and severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes appear necessary with this outlook update, as prior areas, and meteorological reasoning, continue to reflect expected evolution of convection the remainder of the period. ..Goss.. 05/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023/ ...Central High Plains... Relatively weak westerly mid-level winds are present today throughout the Plains states, with a trough moving across NE/KS. A band of slightly stronger flow aloft wraps around the south side of the trough across parts of southern KS/northern OK (25-30 knots at 500mb). This region is likely to see widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development - focused near several weak surface boundaries and instability gradients. CAM guidance is diverse in the details of these storms, but there may be sufficient vertical shear for isolated organized multicell or perhaps supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...Dakotas to Texas... Surrounding the SLGT risk area, scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across much of the Plains region from the Dakotas to west Texas. It is likely that small areas within this corridor will see occasional strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail. However, a combination of weak forcing mechanisms and only marginally favorable environment result in considerable uncertainty of timing/placement details. Therefore will cover region with a broad MRGL risk. ...Eastern NC... A well defined surface low is currently just west of Cape Fear. Visible satellite imagery shows clearing skies in the northeast quadrant of the low, where dewpoints in the low 70s will yield at least marginal CAPE values later today. However, water vapor imagery shows considerable dry mid-level air wrapping into the system, and forecast soundings show slow warming of the 800-600mb layer. This should tend to suppress robust convective development today. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the forecast are needed. Recent ensemble guidance has trended towards slightly higher probability of 15+ mph winds with 15% RH across parts of southern NV into northwest AZ/southwest UT, but recent ERC values are near seasonal normal and should mitigate more robust fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough in the upper Midwest will continue to move northeast and weaken with time on Monday. This will allow the surface trough to progress farther east into the Plains. Similarly, the surface high will migrate towards the New England coast. Southerly winds will continue across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Despite the continued windy conditions, the eastward progression of the surface high should allow for trajectories to advect greater moisture into the region. That being said, RH is expected to remain above critical thresholds on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Dakotas vicinity Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A relatively weak flow field aloft will prevail across the U.S. Monday. The most important feature with respect to the convective forecast will be a weak trough crossing the central U.S. -- comprised of phased northern- and southern-stream features. With this feature remaining weak overall, the surface reflection of the feature will also remain weak -- largely comprised of a weak baroclinic zone extending southwestward across the Dakotas/western Nebraska. Elsewhere, a rather weak upper low will drift eastward across the Carolinas/Virginia vicinity, and eventually offshore toward the end of the period, while a second low shifts slowly southward near/just off the California coast. ...South Dakota/western Nebraska and surrounding areas... Daytime heating in the vicinity of a weak surface baroclinic zone will result in moderate afternoon destabilization, with subsequent, scattered thunderstorm development expected. The instability/steep lapse rates aloft will support occasionally robust updrafts, but generally modest shear (mid-level flow generally around 25 kt) should limit updraft longevity/potential severity. Still, a few of the strongest cores will be capable of producing hail, and perhaps a locally strong gust or two. Some south-southwesterly low-level jet increase during the evening may permit a bit of clustering of convection, particularly across the South Dakota area, with therefore limited risk for low-end severe risk to spread eastward into eastern South Dakota during the evening before ultimately diminishing. ..Goss.. 05/28/2023 Read more

MD 0886 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0886 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Areas affected...East-central Colorado into west-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272203Z - 280000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible into early evening with a small cluster of storms in east-central Colorado. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with occasional supercell characteristics continues northeastward in east-central Colorado. Dewpoints have mixed out to the low to mid 50s F, supportive of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear is a modest 30-35 kts, but will be sufficient to maintain some potential for additional rotating updrafts. The primary threats will be large hail and isolated damaging winds. While the low-level hodographs are not particularly large, discrete storms that persist to near the Kansas border will eventually be impacted by modestly increasing 850 mb southeasterly winds. A narrow window for a brief tornado will exist over the next couple of hours should storms maintain intensity. ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 38060321 38540338 38980302 39130210 38860159 38550164 38080238 38020291 38060321 Read more

MD 0885 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244...246... FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244...246... Valid 272153Z - 280000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244, 246 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will spread east across the southern High Plains this evening. Large hail is the primary risk with this activity. New severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted downstream into the TX High Plains to account for this risk. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak mid-level short-wave trough is translating across central NM/far west TX. Scattered convection has developed ahead of this feature, along the western fringe of higher moisture/instability where southeasterly boundary-layer flow is evident. Latest diagnostic data suggests a surface boundary, augmented by early-day convection, is draped from near I-20, north of ABI, into southeast NM. LLJ should strengthen a bit after sunset across the High Plains and ongoing convection over southeast NM should propagate east, aided by aforementioned short wave. Ample buoyancy, and modest shear, exist across this region such that ongoing convection should be maintained deep into the evening. ..Darrow.. 05/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32120427 35200429 35370250 32330244 32120427 Read more

WW 0245 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 245 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/27/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...BYZ...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 245 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-123-272240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN WELD MTC011-075-272240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER POWDER RIVER NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-272240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX Read more

WW 245 SEVERE TSTM CO MT NE SD WY 272000Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Southeast Montana Nebraska Panhandle Western South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon and spread northeastward across the watch area. A very unstable air mass will result in a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Buffalo SD to 45 miles east southeast of Fort Collins CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 244... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..05/27/23 ATTN...WFO...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-019-027-037-041-047-057-272140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE LINCOLN QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TORRANCE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 244 SEVERE TSTM NM 271905Z - 280200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few supercell thunderstorms are expected to track across eastern New Mexico this afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north of Ruidoso NM to 5 miles east of Cannon Afb NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0246 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0246 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more