Severe Storms

WW 246 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 272030Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over southwest Texas will track eastward through the afternoon. The strongest cores will occasionally pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Hobbs NM to 90 miles south southeast of Marfa TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 244...WW 245... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0884 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0884 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Areas affected...Far southeastern New Mexico and southwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 272026Z - 272230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage into the evening hours, with the potential for strong/severe gusts and perhaps isolated large hail. A watch is being issued shortly. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is gradually increasing in the vicinity of a north-south-oriented dryline/lee trough in far southwest TX this afternoon -- where a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates is evident. During the next few hours, continued diurnal heating and mesoscale ascent along the dryline should favor an uptick in storm coverage into the evening hours. Regional VWP indicates 30-40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow atop moist east-southeasterlies (middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints) -- supportive of organized storms given continued diurnal destabilization (decreasing CINH) east of the dryline. Initial storms closer to the dryline may remain somewhat separated and pose a risk of isolated large hail; however, the steep lapse rate environment and expected increase in storm coverage should primarily result in a risk of strong/severe outflow winds owing to upscale growth with eastward extent this afternoon/evening. A watch will be issued shortly. ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ... LAT...LON 30480497 31220489 32130473 32410453 32570420 32600376 32510330 32300307 31940282 31440265 30740256 30030254 29350271 28940308 28970347 29260408 29640458 30480497 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY OF TEXAS...SOUTH TO THE RIO GRANDE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across much of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Discussion... The primary change being implemented with this outlook update is the addition of SLGT risk across the Permian Basin/Transpecos regions of Texas, and into the Big Bend area. Widespread convection is initiating over far West Texas, and southward into adjacent northern Mexico. Continued convective increase is expected, with upscale growth into a loosely organized, linear MCS possible. With a few of the strongest storms within the convective cluster likely to be capable of producing hail/wind near or exceeding severe levels -- as suggested by the pre-storm environment, upgrade to SLGT appears warranted at this time. Otherwise, aside from tweaks to the thunder lines, current areas and outlook reasoning continue to reflect current expectations. ..Goss.. 05/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023/ ...Eastern NM/West TX... An overnight cluster of thunderstorms has resulted in remnant outflow boundary extending from near Plainview TX westward to Santa Rosa NM, with continued slow southward movement. This boundary is likely to maintain some character through the afternoon and play a role in convective activity. The 14Z HRRR solution appears to have a reasonable handle on this scenario, and develops a cluster of supercells by mid-afternoon near the boundary over eastern NM. These storms will track eastward in a corridor of slightly enhanced/backed low-level winds. Large/very large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...Northern High Plains... Similar to yesterday, full sunshine and steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of CO/WY/MT. These storms will spread across the adjacent high plains through the early evening. Moderate CAPE values will promote strong updrafts capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds. However, the main limiting factor will be rather weak bulk shear. Organized multicell storms will likely be the dominant mode, with some clustering expected through the evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An Elevated risk area is introduced for parts of the Red River Valley of the north/northwest MN. Although ensemble guidance shows only modest potential for sustained elevated conditions, the moist bias noted in most solutions over the past 24 hours is likely muting probabilities of sub-20% RH. Recent RAP solutions, which have performed in the best in this regime, suggest a narrow swath of 20-25% RH and 15+ mph winds will develop through the Red River Valley where overlap of a dry air mass over MN and gradient winds over ND will be greatest. Increasing cloud cover through the day casts some uncertainty into the spatial coverage of the threat, but consecutive days of drying of fine fuels will likely support at least a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 05/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will continue to lift north and weaken in the northern Plains on Sunday. Along the West Coast, a closed low is expected to develop. Downstream of this low, shortwave ridging will occur over the Southwest. Dry and windy conditions are probable in parts of the Lower Colorado Valley and into the southern Great Basin. Fuels remain unfavorable for fire spread, however. Dry conditions will persist in the Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. Locally elevated conditions for southern parts of Arizona and New Mexico are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western portions of the Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Hail and strong gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. ...High Plains and areas just east... While the overall upper flow field, and associated surface pattern, will remain similar to previous days, weakening of the western U.S. trough will result in a corresponding weakening of the flow aloft. This suggests reduced severe potential overall. Still, with a modestly moist, diurnally destabilizing boundary layer across the High Plains in the vicinity of a persistent lee trough, widely scattered storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. The most favorable environmental characteristic with respect to severe-weather potential appears to be the persistence of steep lapse rates/eastward EML advection. As such, despite modest shear, large hail will be possible with stronger storms. Meanwhile, with the weaker synoptic pattern, a weaker nocturnal low-level jet is expected, suggesting less likelihood for well-organized convection to shift eastward toward lower elevations during the evening. The best chance for a loosely organized MCS to evolve appears at this time to be over southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico, which would then shift eastward/east-southeastward into western Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Severe threat would likely remain limited however -- again due to somewhat modest deep-layer winds. ...South Texas... A weak disturbance aloft is progged to cross northern Mexico and adjacent portions of southern Texas Sunday. With associated, afternoon convective development expected across northern Mexico, it appears possible that some upscale growth of these storms into one or more clusters could occur, that could cross the lower Rio Grande Valley into Texas. While instability would likely remain somewhat limited with eastward extent, potential for locally strong wind gust and/or hail with this convection -- through the evening and into the overnight hours -- may exist. As such, MRGL risk is being extended across South Texas with this update. ..Goss.. 05/27/2023 Read more

MD 0875 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0875 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Areas affected...the northern High Plains region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262042Z - 262245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds and hail is forecast to increase over the next few hours as storms develop. WW issuance may be required by 6 PM. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis locates a weak surface low over central Wyoming north of Rawlins, and a trough/front extending northeastward across southeastern Montana and northwestern North Dakota. Visible satellite/radar loops show convection increasing across the central Wyoming area, in the vicinity the low, and northeastward along the surface boundary, as daytime heating of the modestly moist (50s surface dewpoints) boundary layer across the region yielding 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Given somewhat weak flow aloft, severe risk with the initial/developing convection should remain limited/pulse-like. With time, however, increasing convective coverage may result in upscale growth into a northeastward-moving, semi-organized band of convection by early evening. This could result in an uptick wind risk, with WW issuance possible in the next few hours in anticipation of the gradually increasing severe risk. ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... LAT...LON 46480863 47020721 47080487 46780370 44720325 43460358 43460690 44570719 45150849 45770902 46480863 Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/26/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-025-031-035-039-041-059-069-073-075-087-101- 119-121-123-262140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-262140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC001-009-015-021-027-031-262140- Read more

WW 240 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 261935Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 240 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are building across the mountains and foothills of central Colorado and southern Wyoming. This activity will spread eastward and intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northeast of Douglas WY to 30 miles southeast of Pueblo CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0241 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 241 TORNADO NM TX 262020Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 241 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico Southwest Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon along the higher terrain of southeast NM into southwest TX. These storms will track eastward into a progressively more favorable environment for very large hail and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Tucumcari NM to 60 miles southeast of Marfa TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 240... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

WW 241 TORNADO NM TX 262020Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 241 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico Southwest Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon along the higher terrain of southeast NM into southwest TX. These storms will track eastward into a progressively more favorable environment for very large hail and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Tucumcari NM to 60 miles southeast of Marfa TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 240... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes, very large hail to 3 inches in diameter, and severe thunderstorm winds of 60 to 70 mph remain possible this afternoon/evening across parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Large hail and a few severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Colorado to southeastern Montana. ...20Z Update... A small expansion has been made to the Slight Risk across central into eastern NM. Convection developing across the higher terrain just east of Albuquerque has quickly strengthened, and the environment downstream into east-central/southeastern NM appears favorable for large to very large hail this afternoon and evening with any sustained supercells. A couple tornadoes will also be possible, mainly this evening, as a southeasterly low-level jet modestly strengthens. The best tornado potential will probably remain focused with any supercell that can remain anchored along or perhaps just north of an outflow boundary from prior convection. For more details on the short-term severe threat across this region, see Mesoscale Discussion 874. No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the northern/central Plains. High-based thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain of the central Rockies, and this activity will spread generally north-northeastward through the rest of the afternoon/evening while posing a threat for both severe wind gusts and large hail. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 873 for more details on the near-term severe threat across eastern WY/CO and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 05/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023/ ...Eastern NM/West TX... Morning surface analysis shows a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms has pushed southwestward across eastern NM, with the boundary and low-level moisture banked against the Sacramento Mountains. Visible imagery shows that the low clouds should slowly erode through the early afternoon, leading to a corridor of backed low-level winds, considerable moisture, and moderate CAPE from east of ABQ into southeast NM. Also, water vapor loop and model guidance may indicate a subtle mid-level shortwave trough over south-central NM that will overspread the area helping to encourage convective initiation. All available CAM solutions develop widely scattered supercells by mid-afternoon along this corridor. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient bulk shear for organized supercells capable of very large hail. Hodograph shapes enlarge after 00z as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. This may encourage the development of a couple tornadoes as the storms track southeastward. Similar to the last several days, isolated but intense storms may persist well after dark and spread into west TX. ...Eastern CO/WY and southeast MT... Strong heating is occurring today from the foothills of central CO northward into eastern WY and southeast MT. Dewpoints well into the 50s, combined with cool mid-level temperatures (-12 to -15 at 500mb) and steep lapse rates will provide a favorable environment for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Deep-layer vertical shear is not very strong, so organized multicell and only isolated supercell structures are expected. Nevertheless, large hail will be possible in the stronger storms throughout this area. Some clustering and upscale growth may also result in damaging winds as this evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...New Mexico... The Elevated risk area has been expanded northward where the probability of sustained elevated wind/RH conditions has increased per recent ensemble guidance. Hot, dry, and windy conditions across northwestern NM today will aid in curing fine fuels, which should support some fire weather risk. See the previous discussion for further details. ...Northern Plains... A strengthening pressure gradient across the central and northern Plains will help sustain 15-25 mph winds from NE to ND and western MN. While diurnal heating/mixing will result in some RH reduction (most likely into the 25-35% range), moisture return should limit overall dryness. Ensemble guidance supports this scenario and depicts low probability for sustained elevated conditions; however, localized/transient elevated conditions may develop Saturday afternoon. ..Moore.. 05/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will remain rather stagnant into Saturday. The trough in the West is expected to lose some intensity. However, mid-level flow enhancement will remain across similar areas as on Friday. Once again, the surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous with perhaps a weak surface low developing in southern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will range from 10-15% for most locations. Winds of 15-20 mph are also forecast. Elevated to localized critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across much of the High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Large hail and strong to severe wind gusts should be the main threats, with slightly better severe potential evident over portions of the northern/central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over much of the western CONUS Saturday will advance slowly eastward towards the Rockies through the period. Multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima should encourage convective development along much of the length of the High Plains by Saturday afternoon. Downstream, upper ridging will persist over the Great Lakes/Northeast, while a broad, closed upper low remains centered over the Southeast. A weak surface low should gradually deepen through the day across the central High Plains, with weak lee troughing extending southward from this low across the southern High Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon across the higher terrain of WY/MT, and gradually spread northeastward with time as an embedded shortwave trough ejects over the northern/central Plains. Once this initially high-based convection encounters greater low-level moisture and instability along/east of the lee trough, it should gradually intensify. Deep-layer shear appears somewhat marginal for organized convection, but around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear should be enough to support a mix of multicells and transient supercells. Isolated large hail will be a threat with the more discrete convection initially, as moderate instability owing to the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates aids updraft strength. With time, one or more clusters should develop and spread northeastward through the early evening while posing some threat for severe/damaging winds. Have added a Slight Risk for hail/wind across the part of the northern/central Plains where the greatest concentration of organized convection appears possible. ...Southern Plains... Less confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity with southward extent along the lee trough into the southern Plains. Lingering convection and cloud debris from Friday night may still be ongoing across parts of this region at the start of the period Saturday morning, which could complicate/hinder subsequent destabilization through the day. Regardless, potential will exist for at least isolated severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, as convective initiation once again occurs across the higher terrain of NM and west TX. As thunderstorms spread eastward, occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur. Too much uncertainty regarding convective evolution currently exists to include greater severe hail/wind probabilities. ...Carolinas... A surface low is forecast to advance northward towards the NC/SC Coast through the period. RAP/NAM forecast soundings along the coast show generally northeasterly low-level flow for much of the day. This should tend to limit the inland advance of substantial low-level moisture, and keep appreciable severe chances offshore. ..Gleason.. 05/26/2023 Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/25/23 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-109-243-371-377-389-252240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CULBERSON JEFF DAVIS PECOS PRESIDIO REEVES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 237 SEVERE TSTM TX 251945Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 237 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon over the Davis Mountains of southwest Texas. Large hail and damaging winds are possible in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Guadalupe Pass TX to 100 miles south southeast of Marfa TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Hart Read more

MD 0866 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 0866 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Areas affected...portions of northeastern New Mexico...southeastern Colorado...and the far western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252042Z - 252245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may evolve late this afternoon into the early evening. More persistent cells may pose a risk for damaging winds and hail. A Weather Watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Afternoon satellite imagery showed thunderstorms developing along the higher terrain of the Raton Mesa and the Sangre De Cristos. Across the adjacent High Plains, diurnal heating has removed much of the inhibition ahead of these developing storms. Weak upslope flow and continued heating should allow these storms to move off the terrain with additional storms developing over the High Plains late this afternoon into the early evening. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will support robust updrafts but with little shear. Area VADs show effective shear generally below 30 kt suggesting storm organization may be limited. However, enough buoyancy may be present to support some hail with the strongest storms. The severe threat may increase later this evening with the arrival of the low-level jet. Enhanced shear may support a locally greater risk of supercells across northeast NM into the OK/TX panhandles. A greater risk for hail and isolated damaging winds may evolve with these potential storms later this evening. While uncertainty remains fairly high on the coverage of organized storms, the potential for supercells later suggests a weather watch may eventually be needed. ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35290492 37010522 38140519 38370447 38230346 38090315 37530282 36800245 36010246 35320248 34950259 34210300 34270432 34730474 35290492 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z Expanded the elevated slightly west across southeast Arizona based on latest fuel guidance showing ERC values above the 80th percentile. Also, expanded the Elevated delineation northward into more of central New Mexico based on latest fuel guidance showing ERC above the 90th percentile in that region. Finally, trimmed the southeast portion of the elevated slightly as it does not appear the strongest winds will spread as far south and east as previously thought. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Strong southwesterly flow and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest Friday beneath a mid-level trough across the West Coast. Relative humidity reductions into the single digits to teens will be possible amid southwesterly flow at 15-20 mph. The best overlap of driest fuels and dry/windy meteorological conditions will be across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Some critical conditions will be possible across southwestern New Mexico. Uncertainty on the state of fuels and duration of the strongest winds leads to low confidence in introducing a critical delineation at this time. As such, an Elevated area has been maintained for this update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... Persistent troughing across the western US will continue to bring increased dry southwesterly flow across the Southwest today. The best overlap of drying fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across portions of southwestern New Mexico. An Elevated delineation was maintained where the highest ensemble probabilities of Elevated conditions overlap with the driest fuels across southwestern New Mexico. Relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent amid sustained winds around 15-20 mph are expected within this region. These conditions may extend further north of the current elevated but recent rainfall precludes the need to expand the area. Elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across much of Arizona and across southern Nevada. Recent rainfall has left fuels in this region unseasonably moist, precluding the need to include any additional areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH TO THE RIO GRANDE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of West Texas and northeast New Mexico, and parts of the Permian Basin and Big Bend area of Texas. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes appear necessary at this time, with respect to the current outlook areas, as convective weather continues to evolve as anticipated. The primary area of interest remains the southern High Plains, and as far south as the Rio Grande, where scattered to isolated severe storms are forecast to develop/increase over the next several hours. ..Goss.. 05/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak upper trough remains in place over the western states today, with a mid-level ridge axis extending from west TX northward into the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of the western states and high plains, along with some risk of isolated strong/severe storms. However, a couple of small areas appear more favorable for more organized and longer-lived severe threat. ...Southwest TX... Morning surface analysis shows relatively deep southeasterly low-level winds across central into southwest TX. This will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass back to the Davis mountains of southeast NM and southwest TX. Strong daytime heating and orographic effects will lead to thunderstorm initiation by 21z over the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos region. Model soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. These storms will likely stay focused near the higher terrain through the early evening before weakening after dark. ...Northeast NM/Northwest TX Panhandle... Similar to yesterday, a combination of southeasterly low-level winds, strong daytime heating, and ample moisture will lead to afternoon thunderstorm development near the Raton Ridge of northeast NM. This area remains under the upper level ridge, and the overall pattern appears to be a step-down from yesterday. However, all CAM solutions show a cluster of thunderstorms tracking slowly southeastward toward the northwest TX panhandle during the early evening. The low-level jet will strengthen during this period, with forecast profiles becoming sufficient for organized severe storms for a few hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threat. ...MT... Widespread dewpoints in the 50s and afternoon MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of central/southern MT. Deep south-southwesterly winds across the region will propagate these storms across the plains through the evening. Outflow dominant multicell storms capable of gusty winds and some hail appear to be the main threats. Read more