Severe Storms

WW 0115 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 115 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OWB TO 30 ENE DYR TO 20 E MEM TO 35 ENE PBF. ..LYONS..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 115 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-095-111-123-042340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI MONROE POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-059-069-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-042340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-105-107-139-143-145-157-042340- KY Read more

MD 0396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042029Z - 042300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon across the area. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...Warm sector convection has slowly deepened with time with some intensification of cells as they cross over the stationary front in southeastern Kentucky. Updraft intensity so far has been muted by a warm layer around 700 mb, but additional destabilization and subtle height falls into the evening should result in more robust updraft development over the next few hours. Modest low-level shear (per local VWPs) should support some tornado potential, especially along the surface boundary, but damaging winds and hail should be the primary threats with the strongest storms. With storm motion predominantly to the northeast, storms will eventually cross to the cool side of the boundary, resulting in hail being the primary threat and eventual weakening of storms. The coverage and intensity of storms will be monitored regarding the need for a watch. ..Jirak/Thompson.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH... LAT...LON 37248698 37718627 37888512 37818426 37738321 37458279 36968283 36528334 36298384 36118467 36038531 36018635 36118697 36148701 36438723 37248698 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 115 TORNADO AR IL KY MO MS TN 041955Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Extreme southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Norhern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercell development is expected this afternoon from northern Mississippi across western/Middle Tennessee into western Kentucky. The storm environment supports the potential for several tornadoes (including an isolated strong tornado), large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, and isolated damaging gusts. The potential for damaging winds up to 75 mph will increase later this evening into early tonight as storm clusters spread into southeast Missouri from Arkansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Paducah KY to 25 miles south southwest of Memphis TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW TYR TO 40 NNE TYR TO 20 SW DEQ TO 30 SSE RKR TO 15 SSW RKR. ..LYONS..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-005-009-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057- 059-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-089-091-095-097- 099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-133-135-137- 141-145-147-149-042340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MARION MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW TYR TO 40 NNE TYR TO 20 SW DEQ TO 30 SSE RKR TO 15 SSW RKR. ..LYONS..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-005-009-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057- 059-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-089-091-095-097- 099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-133-135-137- 141-145-147-149-042340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MARION MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL Read more

WW 113 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 041755Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest, central and northern Arkansas Extreme northwest Louisiana Extreme southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected along a surface front and into the warm sector this afternoon from northeast Texas northeastward into Arkansas. The storm environment will support the potential for a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes, very large hail to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts up to 75 mph as storms congeal into multiple clusters later this afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Flippin AR to 60 miles south southwest of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0118 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0118 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0397 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 113...114... FOR NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...WESTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0397 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...Northeast TX...southeast OK...western AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...114... Valid 042033Z - 042200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113, 114 continues. SUMMARY...Maturing supercells will pose an increasing tornado threat this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed over the last hour across northeast TX, in the immediate vicinity of a slow-moving cold front that extends from southeast OK into central TX. The 18Z SHV sounding is representative of the environment across the region, with very rich low-level moisture, large to extreme MLCAPE, deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells, and a rather strong low-level jet. A corridor of increasing short-term tornado threat is evident from northeast TX into far southeast OK and western AR, where locally backed surface winds are resulting in 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2. This combination of favorable buoyancy, boundary-layer moisture, and relatively strong low-level shear/SRH will support an increasing tornado threat with any sustained supercells, including significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Large hail and damaging winds could also accompany the strongest cells. ..Dean.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 31889648 32739620 33549548 34629455 35499358 35179295 34369299 32779455 31879567 31889648 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more