Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A compact mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains from the southern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday), supporting the eastward development of a surface cyclone along the southern High Plains. For tomorrow/Sunday afternoon, a dryline will rapidly mix eastward from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas, with RH dipping to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds peak within the 25-30 mph range behind the dryline. With the continued drying of fuels across the southern High Plains, conditions will support rapid wildfire spread, with Critical highlights introduced where favorable surface winds/RH will overlap for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A compact mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains from the southern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday), supporting the eastward development of a surface cyclone along the southern High Plains. For tomorrow/Sunday afternoon, a dryline will rapidly mix eastward from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas, with RH dipping to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds peak within the 25-30 mph range behind the dryline. With the continued drying of fuels across the southern High Plains, conditions will support rapid wildfire spread, with Critical highlights introduced where favorable surface winds/RH will overlap for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A compact mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains from the southern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday), supporting the eastward development of a surface cyclone along the southern High Plains. For tomorrow/Sunday afternoon, a dryline will rapidly mix eastward from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas, with RH dipping to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds peak within the 25-30 mph range behind the dryline. With the continued drying of fuels across the southern High Plains, conditions will support rapid wildfire spread, with Critical highlights introduced where favorable surface winds/RH will overlap for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A compact mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains from the southern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday), supporting the eastward development of a surface cyclone along the southern High Plains. For tomorrow/Sunday afternoon, a dryline will rapidly mix eastward from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas, with RH dipping to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds peak within the 25-30 mph range behind the dryline. With the continued drying of fuels across the southern High Plains, conditions will support rapid wildfire spread, with Critical highlights introduced where favorable surface winds/RH will overlap for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A compact mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains from the southern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday), supporting the eastward development of a surface cyclone along the southern High Plains. For tomorrow/Sunday afternoon, a dryline will rapidly mix eastward from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas, with RH dipping to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds peak within the 25-30 mph range behind the dryline. With the continued drying of fuels across the southern High Plains, conditions will support rapid wildfire spread, with Critical highlights introduced where favorable surface winds/RH will overlap for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two may impact parts of the central Great Plains late Sunday afternoon and early evening, posing some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Downstream of an initially strong zonal jet across the mid-latitude Pacific, the westerlies are forecast to remain split, with relatively high mean mid-level heights across the eastern Pacific into western North America. The confluent eastern periphery of this regime is forecast to gradually spread east of the Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night, in the wake of amplified, seasonably cold, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. Within the flow emanating from the Pacific, models continue to indicate that one significant short wave perturbation will progress inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Basin and Southwest. This will be preceded by a more compact mid-level low, which is forecast to weaken while crossing the southern Rockies through south central Great Plains, within broader-scale flow trending more anticyclonic. As this occurs, in lower levels, models indicate that surface troughing will deepen across the central and southern high plains, in the wake of surface ridging shifting east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening southerly return flow, mainly inland of a gradually modifying boundary layer across the western Gulf Basin. ...South Central Great Plains... Despite limited moisture return within lower/mid-levels, beneath relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, models remain suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient to potentially support scattered thunderstorm development, aided by favorable large-scale ascent. It appears that this will be provided by the lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest, though notable lingering spread among the various models concerning this feature continues to make timing and location somewhat uncertain. This may include at least attempts at convection rooted within a weakly unstable boundary-layer near the lee surface trough across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas vicinity late Sunday afternoon. Aided by strong deep-layer wind fields and shear, it might not be out the of the question that a cell or two could be accompanied by hail and gusty surface winds, which could briefly exceed severe limits late Sunday afternoon or early evening. ...Central California into Great Basin... Beneath stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent forecast to overspread the region, destabilization, aided by daytime heating, probably will become sufficient for widely scattered weak thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two may impact parts of the central Great Plains late Sunday afternoon and early evening, posing some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Downstream of an initially strong zonal jet across the mid-latitude Pacific, the westerlies are forecast to remain split, with relatively high mean mid-level heights across the eastern Pacific into western North America. The confluent eastern periphery of this regime is forecast to gradually spread east of the Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night, in the wake of amplified, seasonably cold, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. Within the flow emanating from the Pacific, models continue to indicate that one significant short wave perturbation will progress inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Basin and Southwest. This will be preceded by a more compact mid-level low, which is forecast to weaken while crossing the southern Rockies through south central Great Plains, within broader-scale flow trending more anticyclonic. As this occurs, in lower levels, models indicate that surface troughing will deepen across the central and southern high plains, in the wake of surface ridging shifting east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening southerly return flow, mainly inland of a gradually modifying boundary layer across the western Gulf Basin. ...South Central Great Plains... Despite limited moisture return within lower/mid-levels, beneath relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, models remain suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient to potentially support scattered thunderstorm development, aided by favorable large-scale ascent. It appears that this will be provided by the lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest, though notable lingering spread among the various models concerning this feature continues to make timing and location somewhat uncertain. This may include at least attempts at convection rooted within a weakly unstable boundary-layer near the lee surface trough across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas vicinity late Sunday afternoon. Aided by strong deep-layer wind fields and shear, it might not be out the of the question that a cell or two could be accompanied by hail and gusty surface winds, which could briefly exceed severe limits late Sunday afternoon or early evening. ...Central California into Great Basin... Beneath stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent forecast to overspread the region, destabilization, aided by daytime heating, probably will become sufficient for widely scattered weak thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two may impact parts of the central Great Plains late Sunday afternoon and early evening, posing some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Downstream of an initially strong zonal jet across the mid-latitude Pacific, the westerlies are forecast to remain split, with relatively high mean mid-level heights across the eastern Pacific into western North America. The confluent eastern periphery of this regime is forecast to gradually spread east of the Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night, in the wake of amplified, seasonably cold, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. Within the flow emanating from the Pacific, models continue to indicate that one significant short wave perturbation will progress inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Basin and Southwest. This will be preceded by a more compact mid-level low, which is forecast to weaken while crossing the southern Rockies through south central Great Plains, within broader-scale flow trending more anticyclonic. As this occurs, in lower levels, models indicate that surface troughing will deepen across the central and southern high plains, in the wake of surface ridging shifting east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening southerly return flow, mainly inland of a gradually modifying boundary layer across the western Gulf Basin. ...South Central Great Plains... Despite limited moisture return within lower/mid-levels, beneath relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, models remain suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient to potentially support scattered thunderstorm development, aided by favorable large-scale ascent. It appears that this will be provided by the lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest, though notable lingering spread among the various models concerning this feature continues to make timing and location somewhat uncertain. This may include at least attempts at convection rooted within a weakly unstable boundary-layer near the lee surface trough across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas vicinity late Sunday afternoon. Aided by strong deep-layer wind fields and shear, it might not be out the of the question that a cell or two could be accompanied by hail and gusty surface winds, which could briefly exceed severe limits late Sunday afternoon or early evening. ...Central California into Great Basin... Beneath stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent forecast to overspread the region, destabilization, aided by daytime heating, probably will become sufficient for widely scattered weak thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two may impact parts of the central Great Plains late Sunday afternoon and early evening, posing some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Downstream of an initially strong zonal jet across the mid-latitude Pacific, the westerlies are forecast to remain split, with relatively high mean mid-level heights across the eastern Pacific into western North America. The confluent eastern periphery of this regime is forecast to gradually spread east of the Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night, in the wake of amplified, seasonably cold, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. Within the flow emanating from the Pacific, models continue to indicate that one significant short wave perturbation will progress inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Basin and Southwest. This will be preceded by a more compact mid-level low, which is forecast to weaken while crossing the southern Rockies through south central Great Plains, within broader-scale flow trending more anticyclonic. As this occurs, in lower levels, models indicate that surface troughing will deepen across the central and southern high plains, in the wake of surface ridging shifting east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening southerly return flow, mainly inland of a gradually modifying boundary layer across the western Gulf Basin. ...South Central Great Plains... Despite limited moisture return within lower/mid-levels, beneath relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, models remain suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient to potentially support scattered thunderstorm development, aided by favorable large-scale ascent. It appears that this will be provided by the lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest, though notable lingering spread among the various models concerning this feature continues to make timing and location somewhat uncertain. This may include at least attempts at convection rooted within a weakly unstable boundary-layer near the lee surface trough across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas vicinity late Sunday afternoon. Aided by strong deep-layer wind fields and shear, it might not be out the of the question that a cell or two could be accompanied by hail and gusty surface winds, which could briefly exceed severe limits late Sunday afternoon or early evening. ...Central California into Great Basin... Beneath stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent forecast to overspread the region, destabilization, aided by daytime heating, probably will become sufficient for widely scattered weak thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two may impact parts of the central Great Plains late Sunday afternoon and early evening, posing some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Downstream of an initially strong zonal jet across the mid-latitude Pacific, the westerlies are forecast to remain split, with relatively high mean mid-level heights across the eastern Pacific into western North America. The confluent eastern periphery of this regime is forecast to gradually spread east of the Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night, in the wake of amplified, seasonably cold, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. Within the flow emanating from the Pacific, models continue to indicate that one significant short wave perturbation will progress inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Basin and Southwest. This will be preceded by a more compact mid-level low, which is forecast to weaken while crossing the southern Rockies through south central Great Plains, within broader-scale flow trending more anticyclonic. As this occurs, in lower levels, models indicate that surface troughing will deepen across the central and southern high plains, in the wake of surface ridging shifting east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening southerly return flow, mainly inland of a gradually modifying boundary layer across the western Gulf Basin. ...South Central Great Plains... Despite limited moisture return within lower/mid-levels, beneath relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, models remain suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient to potentially support scattered thunderstorm development, aided by favorable large-scale ascent. It appears that this will be provided by the lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest, though notable lingering spread among the various models concerning this feature continues to make timing and location somewhat uncertain. This may include at least attempts at convection rooted within a weakly unstable boundary-layer near the lee surface trough across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas vicinity late Sunday afternoon. Aided by strong deep-layer wind fields and shear, it might not be out the of the question that a cell or two could be accompanied by hail and gusty surface winds, which could briefly exceed severe limits late Sunday afternoon or early evening. ...Central California into Great Basin... Beneath stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent forecast to overspread the region, destabilization, aided by daytime heating, probably will become sufficient for widely scattered weak thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two may impact parts of the central Great Plains late Sunday afternoon and early evening, posing some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Downstream of an initially strong zonal jet across the mid-latitude Pacific, the westerlies are forecast to remain split, with relatively high mean mid-level heights across the eastern Pacific into western North America. The confluent eastern periphery of this regime is forecast to gradually spread east of the Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night, in the wake of amplified, seasonably cold, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. Within the flow emanating from the Pacific, models continue to indicate that one significant short wave perturbation will progress inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Basin and Southwest. This will be preceded by a more compact mid-level low, which is forecast to weaken while crossing the southern Rockies through south central Great Plains, within broader-scale flow trending more anticyclonic. As this occurs, in lower levels, models indicate that surface troughing will deepen across the central and southern high plains, in the wake of surface ridging shifting east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening southerly return flow, mainly inland of a gradually modifying boundary layer across the western Gulf Basin. ...South Central Great Plains... Despite limited moisture return within lower/mid-levels, beneath relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, models remain suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient to potentially support scattered thunderstorm development, aided by favorable large-scale ascent. It appears that this will be provided by the lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest, though notable lingering spread among the various models concerning this feature continues to make timing and location somewhat uncertain. This may include at least attempts at convection rooted within a weakly unstable boundary-layer near the lee surface trough across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas vicinity late Sunday afternoon. Aided by strong deep-layer wind fields and shear, it might not be out the of the question that a cell or two could be accompanied by hail and gusty surface winds, which could briefly exceed severe limits late Sunday afternoon or early evening. ...Central California into Great Basin... Beneath stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent forecast to overspread the region, destabilization, aided by daytime heating, probably will become sufficient for widely scattered weak thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...Northern Arizona... Latest satellite imagery suggests a strong upper low has settled off the CA Coast. This feature will begin to eject inland as 100kt 500mb speed max translates across the northern Baja Peninsula, ultimately advancing into NM by the end of the period. This evolution will contribute to seasonally cold mid-level temperatures spreading across the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ by mid-late afternoon. Focused exit region of this jet will aid large-scale forcing such that mid-level moistening is expected within steepening lapse rates, though overall moisture content will remain quite low. NAM forecast sounding for GCN at 02/00z exhibits near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through 6km which contributes to SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg. Given the very cold temperatures it appears shallow, high-based convection may generate a few flashes of lightning, though precipitation will be limited among very sparse storms. Nocturnal cooling will lessen the risk of lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...Northern Arizona... Latest satellite imagery suggests a strong upper low has settled off the CA Coast. This feature will begin to eject inland as 100kt 500mb speed max translates across the northern Baja Peninsula, ultimately advancing into NM by the end of the period. This evolution will contribute to seasonally cold mid-level temperatures spreading across the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ by mid-late afternoon. Focused exit region of this jet will aid large-scale forcing such that mid-level moistening is expected within steepening lapse rates, though overall moisture content will remain quite low. NAM forecast sounding for GCN at 02/00z exhibits near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through 6km which contributes to SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg. Given the very cold temperatures it appears shallow, high-based convection may generate a few flashes of lightning, though precipitation will be limited among very sparse storms. Nocturnal cooling will lessen the risk of lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...Northern Arizona... Latest satellite imagery suggests a strong upper low has settled off the CA Coast. This feature will begin to eject inland as 100kt 500mb speed max translates across the northern Baja Peninsula, ultimately advancing into NM by the end of the period. This evolution will contribute to seasonally cold mid-level temperatures spreading across the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ by mid-late afternoon. Focused exit region of this jet will aid large-scale forcing such that mid-level moistening is expected within steepening lapse rates, though overall moisture content will remain quite low. NAM forecast sounding for GCN at 02/00z exhibits near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through 6km which contributes to SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg. Given the very cold temperatures it appears shallow, high-based convection may generate a few flashes of lightning, though precipitation will be limited among very sparse storms. Nocturnal cooling will lessen the risk of lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 Read more