Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...01z Update... Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected with this late-night activity. Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL. Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong tornadoes remain a possibility. ..Darrow.. 04/05/2025 Read more