Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day, due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into early evening, but should become more isolated as instability weakens across the region. Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak will support some storm organization. However, instability is forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat will be marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day, due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into early evening, but should become more isolated as instability weakens across the region. Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak will support some storm organization. However, instability is forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat will be marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

MD 0403 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 0403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...South-central/Central Texas including Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 050344Z - 050545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms including supercells capable of large hail, and possibly damaging winds, is expected to increase through late evening into the early overnight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Water vapor/infrared satellite imagery is implying the arrival of increasing forcing for ascent into the Edwards Plateau vicinity this evening, with a strong consensus of global/convection-allowing models suggestive of vigorous storm development over the next few hours, generally by midnight/1am CDT. Along/north of the boundary across the region, steep mid-level lapse rates and ample elevated buoyancy (2000-3500 J/kg MUCAPE), in the presence of effective shear magnitudes of 50+ kt, will support elevated supercells capable of large hail, potentially in excess of 2" diameter. Some damaging wind threat could also evolve as storm aggregation and potential bow echo development occurs, even with storms that are slightly elevated north of the surface boundary. ..Guyer/Hart.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29920139 31240088 31689771 30349748 29039945 28940058 29920139 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky... Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon. High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this portion of the warm sector. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period. Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and wind. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025 Read more