Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms have weakened considerably across the western North Texas/western Oklahoma vicinity over the past couple of hours. Storms -- and the associated upper low -- will continue moving east of the primary axis of instability, which will support a continued decrease in convective intensity. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will continue across portions of California and Nevada, but severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more