Severe Storms

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W HDO TO 20 ENE BWD. ..KERR..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-027-029-031-053-091-093-099-171-193-209-259-265-281-299- 319-325-333-411-453-463-491-050940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BELL BEXAR BLANCO BURNET COMAL COMANCHE CORYELL GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS KENDALL KERR LAMPASAS LLANO MASON MEDINA MILLS SAN SABA TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W HDO TO 20 ENE BWD. ..KERR..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-027-029-031-053-091-093-099-171-193-209-259-265-281-299- 319-325-333-411-453-463-491-050940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BELL BEXAR BLANCO BURNET COMAL COMANCHE CORYELL GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS KENDALL KERR LAMPASAS LLANO MASON MEDINA MILLS SAN SABA TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 121 SEVERE TSTM TX 050400Z - 051000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1100 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly intensify across central Texas and affect the watch area through the early morning hours. Large hail is the main concern with these storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles northwest of Del Rio TX to 50 miles north of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 119...WW 120... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0406 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121... FOR PARTS OF S CNTRL TX THOUGH S CNTRL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of s cntrl TX though s cntrl OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121... Valid 050636Z - 050830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for storms capable of producing severe hail continues, particularly to the west and northwest of the San Antonio vicinity. Farther north, into the Red River Valley, this threat is expected to lessen with time as storms continue to consolidate. Potential for activity to produce strong surface gusts appears low, and not likely to increase, but this remains a bit more uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Cold surface air remains entrenched along and north of a stalled surface front across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, northwest of College Station, but south of Austin, into areas south of Del Rio. Although this cold air, where convection has been increasing, appears deeper than last night, elevated "loaded gun" type profiles have lingered above the stable near-surface environment. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft associated with another short wave perturbation overspreading the Texas South Plains is beginning overturn this environment. Convection is becoming increasingly widespread west/northwest of Hondo TX into the Red River Valley, where one intense cell has been approaching the Wichita Falls area. A corridor of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection to the west through northwest of San Antonio still seems to offer the most prolonged period of continuing discrete storm development through the early morning hours. Otherwise, as convection farther to the west and north continues to trend less discrete, the potential for severe hail is expected to lessen with time. The potential for the development of gravity wave surface pressure perturbations posing increasing potential for strong surface gusts remains unclear. Given the depth of surface-based cold air, this still seems low, but it might not be completely negligible. ..Kerr.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 33689920 34699797 34289611 31239712 29829855 28989962 29520084 30180065 31550011 32469953 33689920 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0119 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 119 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW TYR TO 25 SSW HOT TO 20 SW LIT TO 40 ESE POF. ..KERR..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 119 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC013-019-021-025-027-031-037-039-053-055-059-069-073-093-099- 103-111-050840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLARK CLAY CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRAIGHEAD CROSS DALLAS GRANT GREENE HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE MISSISSIPPI NEVADA OUACHITA POINSETT LAC015-017-119-050840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER MOC069-155-050840- MO Read more

WW 0120 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PAH TO 20 NNW HOP. ..KERR..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC035-047-219-221-050840- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN TODD TRIGG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0120 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PAH TO 20 NNW HOP. ..KERR..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC035-047-219-221-050840- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN TODD TRIGG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0120 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PAH TO 20 NNW HOP. ..KERR..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC035-047-219-221-050840- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN TODD TRIGG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0120 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PAH TO 20 NNW HOP. ..KERR..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC035-047-219-221-050840- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN TODD TRIGG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 120 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 050240Z - 050900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 940 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms are tracking eastward into the watch area. These storms will maintain some concern for damaging winds and a few tornadoes for several more hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Paducah KY to 45 miles west northwest of Owensboro KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 115...WW 118...WW 119... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT TO 35 W JCT TO 35 W BWD. ..KERR..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-027-029-031-049-053-091-093-099-137-171-193-209-259-265- 267-271-281-299-307-319-325-327-333-385-411-453-463-491- 050840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BELL BEXAR BLANCO BROWN BURNET COMAL COMANCHE CORYELL EDWARDS GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MEDINA MENARD MILLS REAL SAN SABA TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more