Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more