Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more