Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0126 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 17... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0126 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of western/central OK into north/central TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 17... Valid 040531Z - 040730Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a risk of damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will continue to shift east across western/central Oklahoma and portions central/northern Texas the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A line of convection across western OK continues to shift east at around 30-40 mph. These storms have been generally been organized given strong vertical shear. However, convection has largely remained elevated given modest boundary layer moisture and poor low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, a few severe gusts near 60 mph have been noted. Furthermore, a few line-embedded cells have occasionally exhibited modest low-level rotation. This suggests if these storms can become surface-based, the tornado risk would increase given very large, favorably curved hodographs as seen in region VWP data. Convection may intensify with time and southward extent across parts of the Red River vicinity as convection moves into somewhat better quality moisture later tonight. Trends will be monitored and downstream watch issuance may become necessary across parts of eastern OK and north/northeast TX in the next few hours. ..Leitman.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 35279930 37029814 36999661 34659716 31129969 31090077 32640034 34709964 35279930 Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CDS TO 40 SE CDS TO 15 E LTS TO 30 WNW CHK TO 25 S END TO 5 WNW PNC TO 35 NW BVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-019-027-031-033-049-051-065-067-069-071-073-081-083- 085-087-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-141-040840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-097-133-155-197-207-237-253- 275-337-353-363-399-417-429-441-447-451-485-487-503-040840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CDS TO 40 SE CDS TO 15 E LTS TO 30 WNW CHK TO 25 S END TO 5 WNW PNC TO 35 NW BVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-019-027-031-033-049-051-065-067-069-071-073-081-083- 085-087-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-141-040840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-097-133-155-197-207-237-253- 275-337-353-363-399-417-429-441-447-451-485-487-503-040840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CDS TO 40 SE CDS TO 15 E LTS TO 30 WNW CHK TO 25 S END TO 5 WNW PNC TO 35 NW BVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-019-027-031-033-049-051-065-067-069-071-073-081-083- 085-087-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-141-040840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-097-133-155-197-207-237-253- 275-337-353-363-399-417-429-441-447-451-485-487-503-040840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW PNC TO 35 WNW CNU. WW 16 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040900Z. ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-040900- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW PNC TO 35 WNW CNU. WW 16 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040900Z. ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-040900- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW PNC TO 35 WNW CNU. WW 16 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040900Z. ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-040900- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW PNC TO 35 WNW CNU. WW 16 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040900Z. ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-040900- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW PNC TO 35 WNW CNU. WW 16 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040900Z. ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-040900- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW PNC TO 35 WNW CNU. WW 16 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040900Z. ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-040900- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 16 SEVERE TSTM KS 040310Z - 040900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 16 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 910 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Kansas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 910 PM until 300 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase and develop eastward across southern Kansas through the late evening and overnight, with bouts of large hail and locally damaging winds as the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Medicine Lodge KS to 70 miles east of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more