Severe Storms

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GGG TO 20 N SHV TO 40 N ELD TO 5 SSW LIT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 ..BENTLEY..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-053-067- 069-073-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-123-139-145-147- 051840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS UNION WHITE WOODRUFF LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-067-069-073-081-085-111-119-127- 051840- LA Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GGG TO 20 N SHV TO 40 N ELD TO 5 SSW LIT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 ..BENTLEY..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-053-067- 069-073-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-123-139-145-147- 051840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS UNION WHITE WOODRUFF LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-067-069-073-081-085-111-119-127- 051840- LA Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025 CORRECTED FOR AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Louisiana East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025 CORRECTED FOR AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Louisiana East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025 CORRECTED FOR AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Louisiana East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025 CORRECTED FOR AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Louisiana East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025 CORRECTED FOR AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Louisiana East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025 CORRECTED FOR AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Louisiana East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more