Severe Storms

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0020 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-101-131-143-041440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON MOC009-043-097-109-119-145-209-213-041440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON STONE TANEY OKC041-097-115-041440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0128 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 18... FOR NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...north Texas into southeast Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 18... Valid 041113Z - 041315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 18 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds likely to persist across north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. A brief tornado remains possible as well. DISCUSSION...A squall line has gained strength and speed over the past few hours, and will continue to push east across northern TX and southeastern OK. Widespread strong to damaging winds are likely, with substantial/cold downdrafts augmenting the already strong boundary-layer wind gusts well ahead of the line. Recently, a gradually deepening line of convection was noted near Waco, stretching north and intersecting the squall line as it moves into the Metroplex. This intersection may prove favorable for enhanced severe winds over 75 mph, along with stronger cyclonic shear. Given the continued push to the shortwave trough and strong low-level jet, this line should remain severe for several more hours. ..Jewell.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31599658 31309751 31259839 31429844 31959805 32479772 33319745 33969720 34689705 35239640 35189583 34679553 33429577 32459603 31969629 31599658 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more