Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are still expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update were to trim severe probabilities from the west to account for the passage of the ongoing QLCS over the Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley region. Severe hail may still accompany the stronger storms along southern extent of or immediately ahead of the QLCS. Otherwise, strong to severe surface gusts and tornadoes (a couple of which may be strong) may occur with embedded mesovortices and LEWPs within the QLCS, as well as with any storms ahead of the line. See the previous outlook (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are still expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update were to trim severe probabilities from the west to account for the passage of the ongoing QLCS over the Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley region. Severe hail may still accompany the stronger storms along southern extent of or immediately ahead of the QLCS. Otherwise, strong to severe surface gusts and tornadoes (a couple of which may be strong) may occur with embedded mesovortices and LEWPs within the QLCS, as well as with any storms ahead of the line. See the previous outlook (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are still expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update were to trim severe probabilities from the west to account for the passage of the ongoing QLCS over the Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley region. Severe hail may still accompany the stronger storms along southern extent of or immediately ahead of the QLCS. Otherwise, strong to severe surface gusts and tornadoes (a couple of which may be strong) may occur with embedded mesovortices and LEWPs within the QLCS, as well as with any storms ahead of the line. See the previous outlook (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are still expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update were to trim severe probabilities from the west to account for the passage of the ongoing QLCS over the Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley region. Severe hail may still accompany the stronger storms along southern extent of or immediately ahead of the QLCS. Otherwise, strong to severe surface gusts and tornadoes (a couple of which may be strong) may occur with embedded mesovortices and LEWPs within the QLCS, as well as with any storms ahead of the line. See the previous outlook (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. Read more

MD 0412 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of northeast Texas...Southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051748Z - 051945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Maturing elevated storms may pose a risk for hail through the afternoon hours. DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar imagery showed intensifying elevated convection northwest of the well-defined frontal corridor across eastern TX. Recent reports of severe hail in Navarro County, along with increasing CAPPI/MESH cores these storms will likely continue to intensify. SPC mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE atop surface temperatures in the 50s and 40s F. Southwesterly mid-level shear of 50-60 kt is supporting of supercells. With most of the CAPE distributed above the freezing layer, severe hail with the max potential near 1.75 inches is likely with the deeper cores. HRRR guidance and radar trends suggest these storms may persist for several hours farther northeast into parts of OK and AR. While buoyancy gradually decreases, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg should remain sufficient for isolated hail with the deeper supercell structures. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW is not expected, but trends are being monitored. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 32469630 33839552 34559502 34549359 34009342 32939418 31939527 31989605 32469630 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0413 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR NORTHERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...western Kentucky and far northern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051803Z - 051930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A downstream watch may be needed from southeast Missouri across western Kentucky. DISCUSSION...A well-established bow has developed across northeast Arkansas with multiple measured wind gusts between 60 and 80 mph. This bow is mostly on the cool side of the surface boundary, but the cold air is shallow enough to support some downdrafts and continued severe wind gusts. While this bow likely will undergo some weakening as it moves into increasingly deep cold air north of the boundary, there is a reservoir of better instability across western Kentucky. This may provide enough buoyancy to support some severe wind gusts this afternoon. There is currently minimal surface-based instability forecast north of the TN/KY border (per SPC mesoanalysis) and with extensive cloudcover, it may be difficult for surface based destabilization. However, if even weak surface based instability can develop this far north, strong low-level shear would support a tornado threat. In addition, a band of storms has continued to strengthen across western Tennessee with some supercell structures apparent. These storms could move north of watch 122 with some severe threat this afternoon. A watch may be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours to cover the threat from the bow and this pre-squall line convection. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36228945 36409016 36449022 36789000 37208942 37648805 37968661 37378592 36678630 36368766 36228945 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more