Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

MD 0132 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 20... FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...FAR EAST TEXAS...AND MUCH OF WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0132 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...southern Arkansas...far east Texas...and much of western Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 20... Valid 041617Z - 041745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 20 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging wind/tornado threat will continue through the morning and early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A mature squall line has developed from southern Arkansas to far east Texas. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with this squall line, but several mesovorticies have also been observed across northern Louisiana. This portion of the line has now outrun the better low-level moisture and thus, any mesovorticies have been relatively weak and short lived. Expect this line of storms to continue east through the morning and into the early afternoon with a similar intensity. The greatest tornado threat during the next few hours will likely exist across southern and central Louisiana where mid to upper 60s dewpoints are in place with 500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 450 m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per POE VWP). If enough breaks in the clouds can sustain for temperatures to warm into the low 70s with 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, an increase in the supercellular tornado threat may occur with a subsequent greater strong tornado threat. ..Bentley.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 33489311 33979298 34409271 34469158 34369114 33129129 31239213 30559227 29759274 29669311 29639376 29599417 29749477 30119494 30649480 33489311 Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BPT TO 20 WNW POE TO 20 E ELD TO 15 SSW LIT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132 ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-017-025-041-043-069-079-139-041840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT CLEVELAND DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN UNION LAC001-003-011-019-021-023-039-043-049-053-059-061-067-069-073- 079-083-111-113-115-123-127-041840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE LINCOLN MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND UNION Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more