Severe Storms

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE LCH TO 20 S ESF. WW 20 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 042100Z. ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-023-039-053-113-042100- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE LCH TO 20 S ESF. WW 20 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 042100Z. ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-023-039-053-113-042100- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 20 TORNADO AR LA TX 041415Z - 042100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 20 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Western and Northern Louisiana East Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until 300 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken squall line will continue east into the Watch area this morning. A destabilizing airmass near and immediately ahead of this strong to severe thunderstorm activity will aid in a severe risk continuing eastward through the early afternoon. Scattered severe gusts and a risk for tornadoes will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Pine Bluff AR to 60 miles southwest of Fort Polk LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 18...WW 19... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25045. ...Smith Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more