Severe Storms

WW 21 TORNADO LA MS CW 041820Z - 050100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 21 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern and Southeastern Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 700 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to push eastward towards eastern/southern LA along a progressive cold front. The environment ahead of this front across eastern/southern LA and into much of central and southern MS will become increasingly favorable for continued severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. Tornadoes are the primary severe hazard, with a few strong (i.e. EF2+) tornadoes possible. Strong to potentially significant (i.e. over 74 mph) wind gusts are possible within this line as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast of Greenwood MS to 35 miles south southeast of Houma LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 20... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0022 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0022 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0022 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 22 TORNADO AL FL CW 042340Z - 050700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 22 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and South-Central Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 540 PM until 100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storm potential including the risk for tornadoes will increase through early/mid-evening especially across southwest Alabama, and eventually parts of the western Florida Panhandle and south-central Alabama. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north of Mobile AL to 45 miles north northeast of Crestview FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 21... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0138 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 21... FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0138 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 21... Valid 042336Z - 050130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread southeast this evening. Damaging winds can be expected, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Intense mid-level height falls will spread across the mid-Mississippi valley this evening, with lesser, but significant forcing extending south across the lower MS Valley ahead of a strong short-wave trough. Long-lived, organized squall line is propagating southeast ahead of this feature, and currently extends from east-central MS into southeast LA. Higher boundary-layer moisture has struggled to move appreciably inland with mid 60s surface dew points having advanced into Jones County MS, roughly 70 mi north of the Coast. This is about the northern extent of modest buoyancy, and the greatest instability should hold along/near the Gulf Coast much of the evening. Very strong wind profiles continue to favor organized convection and damaging winds are expected with this linear MCS. Until/unless more discrete cells form ahead of the line, any tornado risk should be with embedded supercells. ..Darrow.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 29749089 32148894 31678825 29459006 29749089 Read more

MD 0137 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0137 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Nebraska Concerning...Blizzard Valid 042306Z - 050200Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are possible over the next few hours. Moderate to heavy snowfall rates may occur with northwesterly surface winds sustaining over 40 mph, perhaps gusting to 70 mph. Visibility may drop to a quarter mile in spots. DISCUSSION...A surface low along the KS/MO border continues to deepen while shifting towards the Great Lakes, promoting a broad, intense northwesterly surface wind field over parts of the central Plains. Surface observations show northwesterly surface winds sustaining to 40 mph at times over parts of central/eastern NE, where measured gusts have exceeded 65 mph. In tandem with these intense winds are developing snow-bands, as surface-700 mb cold-air advection continues to cool the column to temperatures below freezing. The surface low should continue to intensify through the evening as snowfall rates gradually increase. The current expectation is for blizzard conditions and reduced visibility to gradually become more common through the evening. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40519989 41779955 42539890 42879786 42699700 42299652 41679647 41099672 40289718 40119787 40089873 40519989 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 4 23:01:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0136 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0136 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 042202Z - 042300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A downstream watch will be needed with a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes across portions of southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle. DISCUSSION...A strongly-forced line of convection is ongoing this afternoon across portions of southeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi. Moisture ahead of the line has been relatively meager, with modified continental air mass in place across southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle yielding surface dewpoints largely in the 50s to low 60s F. As the line approaches from the west, the low-level mass response is expected to turn the winds more southerly, bringing higher moisture onshore and at least some positive buoyancy. The 21Z KLIX sounding shows the effect of this with a deep moist adiabatic layer near the surface resulting in meager CAPE values. Given the very strong low-level flow in that sounding and on VWPs across the region, and despite the poor low-level lapse rates, convection is expected to mix some of that flow down to the surface producing a threat for damaging gusts. In addition, given the strong low-level shear, some mesovortex-type tornadoes are possible in the line as the line moves to the east with time. ..Supinie/Mosier.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30068783 30098821 30828836 31998841 32598830 33228824 33508785 33428717 33118622 32808578 32058544 31668543 30898561 30218616 30068783 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will persist through the end of the week, and into next week, as several mid to upper-level troughs move through an amplified pattern. ...Southern Plains and New Mexico... By early Day3/Thursday an upper ridge is expected to traverse the Central and Southern Plains, while a progressive trough enters the Southwest. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds and warm temperatures will accompany this feature, as a lee surface low deepens over eastern CO and the pressure gradient tightens across NM. Although some mid-layer cloud cover may initially inhibit mixing through the first half of the day, deeper mixing will allow for stronger gusts during the late afternoon hours. This will especially be true across southeastern NM, where low RH will overlap with deteriorating fuel states. A continuation of this pattern is expected D4/Friday as the first trough progresses eastward and another Pacific trough behind it digs southeastward over southern CA. The critical conditions D4/Friday will shift more over West TX, however, and wind speeds should decrease with far less of a pressure gradient present. These speeds appear they will be just high enough to continue with critical probabilities during this time across West TX. Fairly good agreement between global deterministic and extended ensemble solutions continues into D5/Saturday with the aforementioned trough and it's associated mid-level jet max impacting the Big Bend and Hill Country of TX. However, there is some disagreement at the surface concerning the progression of a cold front and placement of the tightest pressure gradient. For this reason only minor adjustments have been made to the low critical probabilities, and an increase in probabilities is not warranted at this time. By D8/Tuesday most solutions suggest yet another progressive trough impacting the Southwest and Southern Plains. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. A low Critical probability area has been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will persist through the end of the week, and into next week, as several mid to upper-level troughs move through an amplified pattern. ...Southern Plains and New Mexico... By early Day3/Thursday an upper ridge is expected to traverse the Central and Southern Plains, while a progressive trough enters the Southwest. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds and warm temperatures will accompany this feature, as a lee surface low deepens over eastern CO and the pressure gradient tightens across NM. Although some mid-layer cloud cover may initially inhibit mixing through the first half of the day, deeper mixing will allow for stronger gusts during the late afternoon hours. This will especially be true across southeastern NM, where low RH will overlap with deteriorating fuel states. A continuation of this pattern is expected D4/Friday as the first trough progresses eastward and another Pacific trough behind it digs southeastward over southern CA. The critical conditions D4/Friday will shift more over West TX, however, and wind speeds should decrease with far less of a pressure gradient present. These speeds appear they will be just high enough to continue with critical probabilities during this time across West TX. Fairly good agreement between global deterministic and extended ensemble solutions continues into D5/Saturday with the aforementioned trough and it's associated mid-level jet max impacting the Big Bend and Hill Country of TX. However, there is some disagreement at the surface concerning the progression of a cold front and placement of the tightest pressure gradient. For this reason only minor adjustments have been made to the low critical probabilities, and an increase in probabilities is not warranted at this time. By D8/Tuesday most solutions suggest yet another progressive trough impacting the Southwest and Southern Plains. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. A low Critical probability area has been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will persist through the end of the week, and into next week, as several mid to upper-level troughs move through an amplified pattern. ...Southern Plains and New Mexico... By early Day3/Thursday an upper ridge is expected to traverse the Central and Southern Plains, while a progressive trough enters the Southwest. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds and warm temperatures will accompany this feature, as a lee surface low deepens over eastern CO and the pressure gradient tightens across NM. Although some mid-layer cloud cover may initially inhibit mixing through the first half of the day, deeper mixing will allow for stronger gusts during the late afternoon hours. This will especially be true across southeastern NM, where low RH will overlap with deteriorating fuel states. A continuation of this pattern is expected D4/Friday as the first trough progresses eastward and another Pacific trough behind it digs southeastward over southern CA. The critical conditions D4/Friday will shift more over West TX, however, and wind speeds should decrease with far less of a pressure gradient present. These speeds appear they will be just high enough to continue with critical probabilities during this time across West TX. Fairly good agreement between global deterministic and extended ensemble solutions continues into D5/Saturday with the aforementioned trough and it's associated mid-level jet max impacting the Big Bend and Hill Country of TX. However, there is some disagreement at the surface concerning the progression of a cold front and placement of the tightest pressure gradient. For this reason only minor adjustments have been made to the low critical probabilities, and an increase in probabilities is not warranted at this time. By D8/Tuesday most solutions suggest yet another progressive trough impacting the Southwest and Southern Plains. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. A low Critical probability area has been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will persist through the end of the week, and into next week, as several mid to upper-level troughs move through an amplified pattern. ...Southern Plains and New Mexico... By early Day3/Thursday an upper ridge is expected to traverse the Central and Southern Plains, while a progressive trough enters the Southwest. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds and warm temperatures will accompany this feature, as a lee surface low deepens over eastern CO and the pressure gradient tightens across NM. Although some mid-layer cloud cover may initially inhibit mixing through the first half of the day, deeper mixing will allow for stronger gusts during the late afternoon hours. This will especially be true across southeastern NM, where low RH will overlap with deteriorating fuel states. A continuation of this pattern is expected D4/Friday as the first trough progresses eastward and another Pacific trough behind it digs southeastward over southern CA. The critical conditions D4/Friday will shift more over West TX, however, and wind speeds should decrease with far less of a pressure gradient present. These speeds appear they will be just high enough to continue with critical probabilities during this time across West TX. Fairly good agreement between global deterministic and extended ensemble solutions continues into D5/Saturday with the aforementioned trough and it's associated mid-level jet max impacting the Big Bend and Hill Country of TX. However, there is some disagreement at the surface concerning the progression of a cold front and placement of the tightest pressure gradient. For this reason only minor adjustments have been made to the low critical probabilities, and an increase in probabilities is not warranted at this time. By D8/Tuesday most solutions suggest yet another progressive trough impacting the Southwest and Southern Plains. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. A low Critical probability area has been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will persist through the end of the week, and into next week, as several mid to upper-level troughs move through an amplified pattern. ...Southern Plains and New Mexico... By early Day3/Thursday an upper ridge is expected to traverse the Central and Southern Plains, while a progressive trough enters the Southwest. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds and warm temperatures will accompany this feature, as a lee surface low deepens over eastern CO and the pressure gradient tightens across NM. Although some mid-layer cloud cover may initially inhibit mixing through the first half of the day, deeper mixing will allow for stronger gusts during the late afternoon hours. This will especially be true across southeastern NM, where low RH will overlap with deteriorating fuel states. A continuation of this pattern is expected D4/Friday as the first trough progresses eastward and another Pacific trough behind it digs southeastward over southern CA. The critical conditions D4/Friday will shift more over West TX, however, and wind speeds should decrease with far less of a pressure gradient present. These speeds appear they will be just high enough to continue with critical probabilities during this time across West TX. Fairly good agreement between global deterministic and extended ensemble solutions continues into D5/Saturday with the aforementioned trough and it's associated mid-level jet max impacting the Big Bend and Hill Country of TX. However, there is some disagreement at the surface concerning the progression of a cold front and placement of the tightest pressure gradient. For this reason only minor adjustments have been made to the low critical probabilities, and an increase in probabilities is not warranted at this time. By D8/Tuesday most solutions suggest yet another progressive trough impacting the Southwest and Southern Plains. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. A low Critical probability area has been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will persist through the end of the week, and into next week, as several mid to upper-level troughs move through an amplified pattern. ...Southern Plains and New Mexico... By early Day3/Thursday an upper ridge is expected to traverse the Central and Southern Plains, while a progressive trough enters the Southwest. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds and warm temperatures will accompany this feature, as a lee surface low deepens over eastern CO and the pressure gradient tightens across NM. Although some mid-layer cloud cover may initially inhibit mixing through the first half of the day, deeper mixing will allow for stronger gusts during the late afternoon hours. This will especially be true across southeastern NM, where low RH will overlap with deteriorating fuel states. A continuation of this pattern is expected D4/Friday as the first trough progresses eastward and another Pacific trough behind it digs southeastward over southern CA. The critical conditions D4/Friday will shift more over West TX, however, and wind speeds should decrease with far less of a pressure gradient present. These speeds appear they will be just high enough to continue with critical probabilities during this time across West TX. Fairly good agreement between global deterministic and extended ensemble solutions continues into D5/Saturday with the aforementioned trough and it's associated mid-level jet max impacting the Big Bend and Hill Country of TX. However, there is some disagreement at the surface concerning the progression of a cold front and placement of the tightest pressure gradient. For this reason only minor adjustments have been made to the low critical probabilities, and an increase in probabilities is not warranted at this time. By D8/Tuesday most solutions suggest yet another progressive trough impacting the Southwest and Southern Plains. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. A low Critical probability area has been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will persist through the end of the week, and into next week, as several mid to upper-level troughs move through an amplified pattern. ...Southern Plains and New Mexico... By early Day3/Thursday an upper ridge is expected to traverse the Central and Southern Plains, while a progressive trough enters the Southwest. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds and warm temperatures will accompany this feature, as a lee surface low deepens over eastern CO and the pressure gradient tightens across NM. Although some mid-layer cloud cover may initially inhibit mixing through the first half of the day, deeper mixing will allow for stronger gusts during the late afternoon hours. This will especially be true across southeastern NM, where low RH will overlap with deteriorating fuel states. A continuation of this pattern is expected D4/Friday as the first trough progresses eastward and another Pacific trough behind it digs southeastward over southern CA. The critical conditions D4/Friday will shift more over West TX, however, and wind speeds should decrease with far less of a pressure gradient present. These speeds appear they will be just high enough to continue with critical probabilities during this time across West TX. Fairly good agreement between global deterministic and extended ensemble solutions continues into D5/Saturday with the aforementioned trough and it's associated mid-level jet max impacting the Big Bend and Hill Country of TX. However, there is some disagreement at the surface concerning the progression of a cold front and placement of the tightest pressure gradient. For this reason only minor adjustments have been made to the low critical probabilities, and an increase in probabilities is not warranted at this time. By D8/Tuesday most solutions suggest yet another progressive trough impacting the Southwest and Southern Plains. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. A low Critical probability area has been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will persist through the end of the week, and into next week, as several mid to upper-level troughs move through an amplified pattern. ...Southern Plains and New Mexico... By early Day3/Thursday an upper ridge is expected to traverse the Central and Southern Plains, while a progressive trough enters the Southwest. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds and warm temperatures will accompany this feature, as a lee surface low deepens over eastern CO and the pressure gradient tightens across NM. Although some mid-layer cloud cover may initially inhibit mixing through the first half of the day, deeper mixing will allow for stronger gusts during the late afternoon hours. This will especially be true across southeastern NM, where low RH will overlap with deteriorating fuel states. A continuation of this pattern is expected D4/Friday as the first trough progresses eastward and another Pacific trough behind it digs southeastward over southern CA. The critical conditions D4/Friday will shift more over West TX, however, and wind speeds should decrease with far less of a pressure gradient present. These speeds appear they will be just high enough to continue with critical probabilities during this time across West TX. Fairly good agreement between global deterministic and extended ensemble solutions continues into D5/Saturday with the aforementioned trough and it's associated mid-level jet max impacting the Big Bend and Hill Country of TX. However, there is some disagreement at the surface concerning the progression of a cold front and placement of the tightest pressure gradient. For this reason only minor adjustments have been made to the low critical probabilities, and an increase in probabilities is not warranted at this time. By D8/Tuesday most solutions suggest yet another progressive trough impacting the Southwest and Southern Plains. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. A low Critical probability area has been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will persist through the end of the week, and into next week, as several mid to upper-level troughs move through an amplified pattern. ...Southern Plains and New Mexico... By early Day3/Thursday an upper ridge is expected to traverse the Central and Southern Plains, while a progressive trough enters the Southwest. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds and warm temperatures will accompany this feature, as a lee surface low deepens over eastern CO and the pressure gradient tightens across NM. Although some mid-layer cloud cover may initially inhibit mixing through the first half of the day, deeper mixing will allow for stronger gusts during the late afternoon hours. This will especially be true across southeastern NM, where low RH will overlap with deteriorating fuel states. A continuation of this pattern is expected D4/Friday as the first trough progresses eastward and another Pacific trough behind it digs southeastward over southern CA. The critical conditions D4/Friday will shift more over West TX, however, and wind speeds should decrease with far less of a pressure gradient present. These speeds appear they will be just high enough to continue with critical probabilities during this time across West TX. Fairly good agreement between global deterministic and extended ensemble solutions continues into D5/Saturday with the aforementioned trough and it's associated mid-level jet max impacting the Big Bend and Hill Country of TX. However, there is some disagreement at the surface concerning the progression of a cold front and placement of the tightest pressure gradient. For this reason only minor adjustments have been made to the low critical probabilities, and an increase in probabilities is not warranted at this time. By D8/Tuesday most solutions suggest yet another progressive trough impacting the Southwest and Southern Plains. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. A low Critical probability area has been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will persist through the end of the week, and into next week, as several mid to upper-level troughs move through an amplified pattern. ...Southern Plains and New Mexico... By early Day3/Thursday an upper ridge is expected to traverse the Central and Southern Plains, while a progressive trough enters the Southwest. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds and warm temperatures will accompany this feature, as a lee surface low deepens over eastern CO and the pressure gradient tightens across NM. Although some mid-layer cloud cover may initially inhibit mixing through the first half of the day, deeper mixing will allow for stronger gusts during the late afternoon hours. This will especially be true across southeastern NM, where low RH will overlap with deteriorating fuel states. A continuation of this pattern is expected D4/Friday as the first trough progresses eastward and another Pacific trough behind it digs southeastward over southern CA. The critical conditions D4/Friday will shift more over West TX, however, and wind speeds should decrease with far less of a pressure gradient present. These speeds appear they will be just high enough to continue with critical probabilities during this time across West TX. Fairly good agreement between global deterministic and extended ensemble solutions continues into D5/Saturday with the aforementioned trough and it's associated mid-level jet max impacting the Big Bend and Hill Country of TX. However, there is some disagreement at the surface concerning the progression of a cold front and placement of the tightest pressure gradient. For this reason only minor adjustments have been made to the low critical probabilities, and an increase in probabilities is not warranted at this time. By D8/Tuesday most solutions suggest yet another progressive trough impacting the Southwest and Southern Plains. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. A low Critical probability area has been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will persist through the end of the week, and into next week, as several mid to upper-level troughs move through an amplified pattern. ...Southern Plains and New Mexico... By early Day3/Thursday an upper ridge is expected to traverse the Central and Southern Plains, while a progressive trough enters the Southwest. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds and warm temperatures will accompany this feature, as a lee surface low deepens over eastern CO and the pressure gradient tightens across NM. Although some mid-layer cloud cover may initially inhibit mixing through the first half of the day, deeper mixing will allow for stronger gusts during the late afternoon hours. This will especially be true across southeastern NM, where low RH will overlap with deteriorating fuel states. A continuation of this pattern is expected D4/Friday as the first trough progresses eastward and another Pacific trough behind it digs southeastward over southern CA. The critical conditions D4/Friday will shift more over West TX, however, and wind speeds should decrease with far less of a pressure gradient present. These speeds appear they will be just high enough to continue with critical probabilities during this time across West TX. Fairly good agreement between global deterministic and extended ensemble solutions continues into D5/Saturday with the aforementioned trough and it's associated mid-level jet max impacting the Big Bend and Hill Country of TX. However, there is some disagreement at the surface concerning the progression of a cold front and placement of the tightest pressure gradient. For this reason only minor adjustments have been made to the low critical probabilities, and an increase in probabilities is not warranted at this time. By D8/Tuesday most solutions suggest yet another progressive trough impacting the Southwest and Southern Plains. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. A low Critical probability area has been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more