Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, widespread wetting rainfall will temporarily limit available fuels, curtailing fire-weather potential. The only exception will be transient dry/windy conditions over eastern NM. However, this is not expected to be widespread. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, widespread wetting rainfall will temporarily limit available fuels, curtailing fire-weather potential. The only exception will be transient dry/windy conditions over eastern NM. However, this is not expected to be widespread. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, widespread wetting rainfall will temporarily limit available fuels, curtailing fire-weather potential. The only exception will be transient dry/windy conditions over eastern NM. However, this is not expected to be widespread. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, widespread wetting rainfall will temporarily limit available fuels, curtailing fire-weather potential. The only exception will be transient dry/windy conditions over eastern NM. However, this is not expected to be widespread. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, widespread wetting rainfall will temporarily limit available fuels, curtailing fire-weather potential. The only exception will be transient dry/windy conditions over eastern NM. However, this is not expected to be widespread. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, widespread wetting rainfall will temporarily limit available fuels, curtailing fire-weather potential. The only exception will be transient dry/windy conditions over eastern NM. However, this is not expected to be widespread. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, widespread wetting rainfall will temporarily limit available fuels, curtailing fire-weather potential. The only exception will be transient dry/windy conditions over eastern NM. However, this is not expected to be widespread. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, widespread wetting rainfall will temporarily limit available fuels, curtailing fire-weather potential. The only exception will be transient dry/windy conditions over eastern NM. However, this is not expected to be widespread. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, widespread wetting rainfall will temporarily limit available fuels, curtailing fire-weather potential. The only exception will be transient dry/windy conditions over eastern NM. However, this is not expected to be widespread. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, widespread wetting rainfall will temporarily limit available fuels, curtailing fire-weather potential. The only exception will be transient dry/windy conditions over eastern NM. However, this is not expected to be widespread. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC009-017-019-037-039-045-047-051740- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-085-087-097- 099-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-137-145-147-149- 159-177-179-193-570-630-670-730-760-051740- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK AMELIA BRUNSWICK CAROLINE CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX FLUVANNA GLOUCESTER GOOCHLAND HANOVER HENRICO KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUISA LUNENBURG MATHEWS MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY Read more

MD 0149 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 26... FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...Central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. Concerning...Tornado Watch 26... Valid 051535Z - 051700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 26 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage/tornado threat to increase by mid-day. DISCUSSION...A convective line has produced consistent wind damage this morning with a 52 knot gust at 1512Z at KBUY. This wind threat will continue and likely increase as the environment downstream destabilizes. In addition, low-level moisture advection and some heating through broken cloud cover should lead to 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. Given 450+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH and 75 knots at 1.5 km from the KRAX VWP, the embedded QLCS tornado threat and severe wind threat will likely increase as the line interacts with greater instability. In addition, a few embedded supercells may be possible where instability is greatest which could lead to regions of locally higher threat within the line. Expect an increase in organization and intensity of the squall line (first indicated by the presence of lightning) within the next 1 to 2 hours with the threat persisting through the afternoon/evening. An additional tornado watch will eventually be needed downstream of watch 26 across parts of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 33078068 34927984 35837964 36377935 36617897 36977719 37247608 36677584 36227563 35927551 35607539 35177551 35047579 34777622 34567644 34547672 34587708 34237764 33787802 33637867 33087909 32837937 32537987 33078068 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more