Severe Storms

WW 0125 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 125 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-052340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC035-065-067-083-123-052340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND WEST CARROLL MSC003-009-011-013-015-017-025-043-051-053-055-057-071-081-083- 093-095-097-107-115-117-125-133-135-139-141-145-149-151-155-161- 163-052340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW Read more

WW 0125 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 125 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-052340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC035-065-067-083-123-052340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND WEST CARROLL MSC003-009-011-013-015-017-025-043-051-053-055-057-071-081-083- 093-095-097-107-115-117-125-133-135-139-141-145-149-151-155-161- 163-052340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW Read more

WW 125 TORNADO AR LA MS TN 052150Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Central and Northern Mississippi Southwest Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will track northeastward across the watch area through the evening hours, as low-level wind profiles intensify in a very moist and unstable airmass. Tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts are the primary threats. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northeast of Tupelo MS to 25 miles southeast of Monroe LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...WW 123...WW 124... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0416 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 122... FOR FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0416 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...far northeast Louisiana...northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama. Concerning...Tornado Watch 122... Valid 052014Z - 052215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues. SUMMARY...A line of storms with embedded supercells continues across eastern portions of watch 122. A downstream tornado watch will eventually be needed across northeast Louisiana, northern/central Mississippi and northwest Alabama. DISCUSSION...A line of storms with embedded supercells is slowly drifting east near the Arkansas/Mississippi border. SPC mesoanalysis shows 2500 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of this activity with 50 to 60 knots of effective shear. This will support a continued threat for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. The JAN VWP currently shows a relatively straight low-level hodograph where deeper mixing has occurred. However, winds have remained more backed across northern Mississippi where some sheltering from upper-level clouds has occurred. Expect low-level shear to strengthen later this evening as the low-level jet intensifies closer to 00Z. This cluster of supercells across southeast Arkansas may eventually congeal into another bowing segment across northern Mississippi with an increased severe wind threat this afternoon. In addition, scattered showers have developed across central Mississippi within the unstable, uncapped airmass. Most of the activity has not had any lightning, indicating it is relatively shallow within the deep moist layer shown by the 12Z JAN RAOB. Recently some lightning has been observed with the deeper storms across eastern Mississippi. It is still unclear whether this activity will congeal into one more more supercells this afternoon/evening. If a mature supercell can develop, the environment would support all severe weather hazards including the potential for a strong tornado. A tornado watch will eventually be needed for this region by late this afternoon to early evening for the storms moving out of northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. However, if the storms across central/eastern Mississippi continue to deepen/mature, a tornado watch may be needed sooner. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 32989155 34179118 34829040 35038964 34988798 34688746 33498739 32758785 32288895 32288989 32209110 32399163 32989155 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE MKL TO 25 SSW CKV TO 30 N HOP. ..SUPINIE..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-052340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE KYC003-009-031-047-057-061-141-169-171-213-219-227-052340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CHRISTIAN CUMBERLAND EDMONSON LOGAN METCALFE MONROE SIMPSON TODD WARREN TNC003-015-021-027-031-037-041-043-055-081-085-087-099-101-111- 117-119-125-133-135-141-147-149-159-165-169-175-177-181-185-187- 189-052340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0125 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0125 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula... Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but probabilities were not included the following days due to the uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical thresholds. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains... As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However, ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place over the Southwest. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus, precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more