Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

MD 0134 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0134 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Mississippi and eastern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041749Z - 041945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Low to mid 60s dewpoints have started to surge inland across southeast Louisiana over the past 2 hours. Sustained 15 to 25 knot southeasterly flow ahead of the squall line should lead to rapid northward destabilization across Mississippi during the next few hours. This squall line is currently producing severe wind gusts with a 61 knot wind gust at KPOE at 1727 UTC. Mid 60s dewpoints are expected south of I-20 in Mississippi which should correspond to the area of greatest instability and tornado threat this afternoon. North of I-20, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints should result in sufficient instability for a severe wind threat and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the magnitude of the low-level shear. Across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, where better low-level moisture will be present and some heating may result in greater instability, discrete supercells may be possible. This is a scenario supported by the HRRR consistently. Even if mature supercells do not develop ahead of the main squall line, the weaker forced southern end of the squall line will likely result in a less defined line with embedded supercells. Any supercells which develop, ahead of or within the line, will pose a threat for strong tornadoes given RAP forecast STP values around 3 to 4 this afternoon and evening. Additionally, the strong kinematic environment will support QLCS tornadoes within the better defined squall line. A tornado watch will be issued soon to address the threat from the squall line and any supercells which may develop ahead of the line. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31289232 33699111 33919009 33978909 33848823 32958830 31908848 30528874 30038911 29838916 29488920 29248889 29028893 28868923 29018961 29069005 29039055 29109116 29259160 29509201 29709214 30429234 31289232 Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-009-025-029-033-035-037-041-045-047-051-055-057-063- 065-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109- 117-121-125-042040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA FRANKLIN IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON MADISON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041- 043-045-047-049-051-053-055-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077- 079-083-085-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-111-113-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-147-149-151-153-155-157-159-163-042040- Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more