Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more