Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BPT TO 25 WNW ESF TO 10 ENE LLQ TO 35 E LIT. ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-017-041-041940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA LAC001-003-011-019-021-023-039-053-059-067-073-079-083-113-123- 041940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MOREHOUSE OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND VERMILION WEST CARROLL TXC245-361-041940- TX Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0021 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more