Severe Storms

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GGG TO 30 NE SHV TO 30 NE ELD TO 10 E PBF TO 55 W MEM TO 15 SSW JBR TO 5 NE ARG. ..BENTLEY..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-017-025-031-035-037-041-043-069-077-079-093-095- 107-111-123-139-051940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-067-069-073-081-085-111-119-127- 051940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GGG TO 30 NE SHV TO 30 NE ELD TO 10 E PBF TO 55 W MEM TO 15 SSW JBR TO 5 NE ARG. ..BENTLEY..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-017-025-031-035-037-041-043-069-077-079-093-095- 107-111-123-139-051940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-067-069-073-081-085-111-119-127- 051940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES Read more

MD 0411 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 122... FOR CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...central Arkansas to southwest Tennessee and far northwest Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 122... Valid 051636Z - 051830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues. SUMMARY...A focused severe wind threat is developing across central Arkansas toward western Tennessee with the potential for winds in excess of 80 mph. DISCUSSION...A bowing line segment has developed along the frontal zone/composite outflow in central Arkansas with a recent measured wind gust of 58 knots at KORK at 1615 UTC. In addition, a well organized rear-inflow jet is being sampled by the KLZK WSR-88D. The airmass south of this boundary continues to destabilize with further destabilization to 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE expected by early afternoon. Expect this bow to traverse along this frontal/outflow zone through the afternoon. In addition to current radar/observational trends which support this corridor of a higher wind threat, the 15Z WoFS also highlights this corridor early this afternoon with 90th percentile wind gusts around 65 knots across southwest Tennessee. In addition to the severe wind threat (which will exist on both sides of the boundary), a tornado threat will also exist south of this boundary, although line orientation may not be as favorable based on current WSR-88D depiction from KLZK. The greatest tornado threat will likely exist along the boundary where low-level vorticity will be enhanced. ..Bentley.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 34329196 34479226 34759231 34909237 35399073 35558990 35408958 35238953 35058963 34888987 34619058 34329196 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more