Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ...Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ...Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ...Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ...Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ...Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ...Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ...Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more