Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more