Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0120 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PAH TO 20 NNW HOP. ..KERR..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC035-047-177-219-221-050740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW DRT TO 55 WSW JCT TO 30 NE SJT. ..KERR..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-027-029-031-049-053-083-091-093-095-099-137-171-193-209- 259-265-267-271-281-299-307-319-325-327-333-385-399-411-413-435- 453-463-491-050740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BELL BEXAR BLANCO BROWN BURNET COLEMAN COMAL COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL EDWARDS GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MEDINA MENARD MILLS REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SUTTON TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0119 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 119 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TYR TO 25 SSW HOT TO 25 SW LIT TO 25 NE JBR TO 40 ESE POF. ..KERR..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 119 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC013-019-021-025-027-031-037-039-053-055-057-059-067-069-073- 085-091-093-099-103-111-117-145-147-050740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLARK CLAY CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRAIGHEAD CROSS DALLAS GRANT GREENE HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LONOKE MILLER MISSISSIPPI NEVADA OUACHITA POINSETT PRAIRIE WHITE WOODRUFF LAC015-017-119-050740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER MOC069-155-050740- Read more

MD 0405 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 120... FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...Western/central Kentucky and far southern Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 120... Valid 050435Z - 050630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind/tornado potential will continue, at least on isolated basis, mainly across western Kentucky into the overnight, and possibly east-northeastward into parts of central Kentucky/far southern Indiana. Tornado Watch 120 continues until 4am CDT/09z, and downstream convective trends will continue to be monitored, although the need for an additional Watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Line Echo Wave Pattern (LEWP) evolution continues to occur with multiple bowing segments across western Kentucky into southwest Indiana, including one of the bow echoes preferentially favoring and riding along prior outflow east of the Paducah area as of 1130pm CDT. Near the terminus of the strong regional low-level jet, low-level shear is robust within this corridor with 0-1km SRH on the order of 250-400 m2/s2. Damaging wind along with some tornado potential will continue especially across western Kentucky over the next couple of hours. Overall storm intensity should gradually diminish overnight as storms progress eastward, but at least a lower-end damaging wind/tornado risk could breach the current Tornado Watch, and convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Guyer.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36428807 36528886 37008909 38008752 38368602 37918580 37418594 37018622 36658692 36428807 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0404 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 119... FOR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AR AND NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...Southwest/central/northeast AR and northeast TX/northwest LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 119... Valid 050416Z - 050615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 119 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado/damaging wind potential continues particularly across central/northeast Arkansas including the Little Rock vicinity. Tornado Watch 119 continues until 4am CDT/09z. DISCUSSION...Several embedded supercells/small-scale bows continue especially across central Arkansas including near the Little Rock metro area as of 1110pm CDT, commonly favoring areas along/north of shallow prior outflow emanating from the north. The potential for tornadoes, along with damaging winds, continues particularly in a southwest/northeast-oriented corridor across central to northeast Arkansas. This is attributable to a moist low-level environment and strong low-level shear/SRH, with upwards of 250-400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH based on regional WSR-88D VWP data. ..Guyer.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 32879449 33859364 34259306 35869151 36449048 36268996 35738995 35079073 32749340 32879449 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day, due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into early evening, but should become more isolated as instability weakens across the region. Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak will support some storm organization. However, instability is forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat will be marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day, due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into early evening, but should become more isolated as instability weakens across the region. Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak will support some storm organization. However, instability is forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat will be marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day, due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into early evening, but should become more isolated as instability weakens across the region. Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak will support some storm organization. However, instability is forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat will be marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day, due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into early evening, but should become more isolated as instability weakens across the region. Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak will support some storm organization. However, instability is forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat will be marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day, due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into early evening, but should become more isolated as instability weakens across the region. Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak will support some storm organization. However, instability is forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat will be marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025 Read more