Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 26 22:26:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 26 22:26:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more