Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys... Shortwave trough currently progressing off the TX Coast is expected to continue eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early tomorrow morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level flow that accompany this shortwave are expected to spread over central/southern FL and the FL Keys after 03Z. An attendant surface low attendant will progress quickly eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. The general consensus among the guidance is for this low to be just off the west-central FL Coast around 00Z before continuing across the central FL Peninsula and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Moistening of the low-level airmass is expected ahead of the shortwave trough and attendant surface low, particularly after 18Z. Widespread showers throughout the day will likely mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but little to no surface-based inhibition is expected south of the warm front (which will extend eastward from the surface low across the central FL Peninsula) from the late afternoon onward. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along and ahead of the front as it gradually pushes eastward. Dewpoints near 70s across south FL and the FL Keys will result in stronger buoyancy and the potential for deeper, more long-lived updrafts. Strong vertical shear over the region supports the potential for a few supercells with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The development of a low-level convergence zone is possible, which could result in a favored corridor for strong to severe storms. Currently, this zone is expected to remain just off south FL Coast, but a few storms in this area could impact the Keys. ...Interior Pacific Northwest... Recent satellite imagery shows an intense shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, moving quickly northeastward. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day, reaching the coastal Pacific Northwest this afternoon and the interior Pacific Northwest tonight. A frontal band, with occasional lightning, is expected to develop along the leading edge of the strong forcing for ascent associated with this system. Temperatures could reach the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of this line in northeast OR/southwest WA amid steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. As such, the overall environment supports the potential for strong downbursts within the line as it moves across the region. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley... The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through MT is expected to continue southeastward today, moving across the northern Plains and IA before ending the period over IL. A compact but strong jet streak will accompany this shortwave, with 500-mb winds within this streak from 90 to 100 kt. The downstream airmass will be dry, and strong heating/mixing will help push afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite dry low levels, some modest buoyancy is possible amid the deep mixing and cold mid-level temperatures. Consequently, a few shallow thunderstorms are possible as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave interacts with this limited buoyancy. Small hail and strong outflow is possible with these storms, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain too isolated to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys... Shortwave trough currently progressing off the TX Coast is expected to continue eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early tomorrow morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level flow that accompany this shortwave are expected to spread over central/southern FL and the FL Keys after 03Z. An attendant surface low attendant will progress quickly eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. The general consensus among the guidance is for this low to be just off the west-central FL Coast around 00Z before continuing across the central FL Peninsula and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Moistening of the low-level airmass is expected ahead of the shortwave trough and attendant surface low, particularly after 18Z. Widespread showers throughout the day will likely mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but little to no surface-based inhibition is expected south of the warm front (which will extend eastward from the surface low across the central FL Peninsula) from the late afternoon onward. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along and ahead of the front as it gradually pushes eastward. Dewpoints near 70s across south FL and the FL Keys will result in stronger buoyancy and the potential for deeper, more long-lived updrafts. Strong vertical shear over the region supports the potential for a few supercells with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The development of a low-level convergence zone is possible, which could result in a favored corridor for strong to severe storms. Currently, this zone is expected to remain just off south FL Coast, but a few storms in this area could impact the Keys. ...Interior Pacific Northwest... Recent satellite imagery shows an intense shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, moving quickly northeastward. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day, reaching the coastal Pacific Northwest this afternoon and the interior Pacific Northwest tonight. A frontal band, with occasional lightning, is expected to develop along the leading edge of the strong forcing for ascent associated with this system. Temperatures could reach the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of this line in northeast OR/southwest WA amid steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. As such, the overall environment supports the potential for strong downbursts within the line as it moves across the region. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley... The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through MT is expected to continue southeastward today, moving across the northern Plains and IA before ending the period over IL. A compact but strong jet streak will accompany this shortwave, with 500-mb winds within this streak from 90 to 100 kt. The downstream airmass will be dry, and strong heating/mixing will help push afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite dry low levels, some modest buoyancy is possible amid the deep mixing and cold mid-level temperatures. Consequently, a few shallow thunderstorms are possible as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave interacts with this limited buoyancy. Small hail and strong outflow is possible with these storms, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain too isolated to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys... Shortwave trough currently progressing off the TX Coast is expected to continue eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early tomorrow morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level flow that accompany this shortwave are expected to spread over central/southern FL and the FL Keys after 03Z. An attendant surface low attendant will progress quickly eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. The general consensus among the guidance is for this low to be just off the west-central FL Coast around 00Z before continuing across the central FL Peninsula and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Moistening of the low-level airmass is expected ahead of the shortwave trough and attendant surface low, particularly after 18Z. Widespread showers throughout the day will likely mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but little to no surface-based inhibition is expected south of the warm front (which will extend eastward from the surface low across the central FL Peninsula) from the late afternoon onward. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along and ahead of the front as it gradually pushes eastward. Dewpoints near 70s across south FL and the FL Keys will result in stronger buoyancy and the potential for deeper, more long-lived updrafts. Strong vertical shear over the region supports the potential for a few supercells with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The development of a low-level convergence zone is possible, which could result in a favored corridor for strong to severe storms. Currently, this zone is expected to remain just off south FL Coast, but a few storms in this area could impact the Keys. ...Interior Pacific Northwest... Recent satellite imagery shows an intense shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, moving quickly northeastward. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day, reaching the coastal Pacific Northwest this afternoon and the interior Pacific Northwest tonight. A frontal band, with occasional lightning, is expected to develop along the leading edge of the strong forcing for ascent associated with this system. Temperatures could reach the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of this line in northeast OR/southwest WA amid steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. As such, the overall environment supports the potential for strong downbursts within the line as it moves across the region. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley... The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through MT is expected to continue southeastward today, moving across the northern Plains and IA before ending the period over IL. A compact but strong jet streak will accompany this shortwave, with 500-mb winds within this streak from 90 to 100 kt. The downstream airmass will be dry, and strong heating/mixing will help push afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite dry low levels, some modest buoyancy is possible amid the deep mixing and cold mid-level temperatures. Consequently, a few shallow thunderstorms are possible as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave interacts with this limited buoyancy. Small hail and strong outflow is possible with these storms, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain too isolated to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys... Shortwave trough currently progressing off the TX Coast is expected to continue eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early tomorrow morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level flow that accompany this shortwave are expected to spread over central/southern FL and the FL Keys after 03Z. An attendant surface low attendant will progress quickly eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. The general consensus among the guidance is for this low to be just off the west-central FL Coast around 00Z before continuing across the central FL Peninsula and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Moistening of the low-level airmass is expected ahead of the shortwave trough and attendant surface low, particularly after 18Z. Widespread showers throughout the day will likely mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but little to no surface-based inhibition is expected south of the warm front (which will extend eastward from the surface low across the central FL Peninsula) from the late afternoon onward. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along and ahead of the front as it gradually pushes eastward. Dewpoints near 70s across south FL and the FL Keys will result in stronger buoyancy and the potential for deeper, more long-lived updrafts. Strong vertical shear over the region supports the potential for a few supercells with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The development of a low-level convergence zone is possible, which could result in a favored corridor for strong to severe storms. Currently, this zone is expected to remain just off south FL Coast, but a few storms in this area could impact the Keys. ...Interior Pacific Northwest... Recent satellite imagery shows an intense shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, moving quickly northeastward. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day, reaching the coastal Pacific Northwest this afternoon and the interior Pacific Northwest tonight. A frontal band, with occasional lightning, is expected to develop along the leading edge of the strong forcing for ascent associated with this system. Temperatures could reach the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of this line in northeast OR/southwest WA amid steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. As such, the overall environment supports the potential for strong downbursts within the line as it moves across the region. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley... The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through MT is expected to continue southeastward today, moving across the northern Plains and IA before ending the period over IL. A compact but strong jet streak will accompany this shortwave, with 500-mb winds within this streak from 90 to 100 kt. The downstream airmass will be dry, and strong heating/mixing will help push afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite dry low levels, some modest buoyancy is possible amid the deep mixing and cold mid-level temperatures. Consequently, a few shallow thunderstorms are possible as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave interacts with this limited buoyancy. Small hail and strong outflow is possible with these storms, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain too isolated to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/24/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery, instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes across the Carolinas and vicinity. In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across the CONUS and will penetrate well into the Gulf. This should limit any lightning potential on Friday and Saturday. By D7/Sun an D8/Mon, sufficient moisture recovery across the Gulf and inland penetration across the southern Plains and Southeast may result in the potential for thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. However, at this time, this potential does not appear high enough to warrant severe weather probabilities for either day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery, instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes across the Carolinas and vicinity. In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across the CONUS and will penetrate well into the Gulf. This should limit any lightning potential on Friday and Saturday. By D7/Sun an D8/Mon, sufficient moisture recovery across the Gulf and inland penetration across the southern Plains and Southeast may result in the potential for thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. However, at this time, this potential does not appear high enough to warrant severe weather probabilities for either day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery, instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes across the Carolinas and vicinity. In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across the CONUS and will penetrate well into the Gulf. This should limit any lightning potential on Friday and Saturday. By D7/Sun an D8/Mon, sufficient moisture recovery across the Gulf and inland penetration across the southern Plains and Southeast may result in the potential for thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. However, at this time, this potential does not appear high enough to warrant severe weather probabilities for either day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery, instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes across the Carolinas and vicinity. In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across the CONUS and will penetrate well into the Gulf. This should limit any lightning potential on Friday and Saturday. By D7/Sun an D8/Mon, sufficient moisture recovery across the Gulf and inland penetration across the southern Plains and Southeast may result in the potential for thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. However, at this time, this potential does not appear high enough to warrant severe weather probabilities for either day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery, instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes across the Carolinas and vicinity. In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across the CONUS and will penetrate well into the Gulf. This should limit any lightning potential on Friday and Saturday. By D7/Sun an D8/Mon, sufficient moisture recovery across the Gulf and inland penetration across the southern Plains and Southeast may result in the potential for thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. However, at this time, this potential does not appear high enough to warrant severe weather probabilities for either day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery, instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes across the Carolinas and vicinity. In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across the CONUS and will penetrate well into the Gulf. This should limit any lightning potential on Friday and Saturday. By D7/Sun an D8/Mon, sufficient moisture recovery across the Gulf and inland penetration across the southern Plains and Southeast may result in the potential for thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. However, at this time, this potential does not appear high enough to warrant severe weather probabilities for either day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery, instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes across the Carolinas and vicinity. In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across the CONUS and will penetrate well into the Gulf. This should limit any lightning potential on Friday and Saturday. By D7/Sun an D8/Mon, sufficient moisture recovery across the Gulf and inland penetration across the southern Plains and Southeast may result in the potential for thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. However, at this time, this potential does not appear high enough to warrant severe weather probabilities for either day. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday while a larger positively tilted trough develops across the Upper Midwest. This will accelerate a surface front south across the Midwest and toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Moisture will be limited along this frontal zone which will limit any thunderstorm potential with only some light, stratiform precipitation anticipated. Farther west, a strong mid-level trough will develop along the western CONUS with an area of strong high pressure within the Intermountain West. This will lead to benign weather conditions for much of the western CONUS on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday while a larger positively tilted trough develops across the Upper Midwest. This will accelerate a surface front south across the Midwest and toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Moisture will be limited along this frontal zone which will limit any thunderstorm potential with only some light, stratiform precipitation anticipated. Farther west, a strong mid-level trough will develop along the western CONUS with an area of strong high pressure within the Intermountain West. This will lead to benign weather conditions for much of the western CONUS on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday while a larger positively tilted trough develops across the Upper Midwest. This will accelerate a surface front south across the Midwest and toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Moisture will be limited along this frontal zone which will limit any thunderstorm potential with only some light, stratiform precipitation anticipated. Farther west, a strong mid-level trough will develop along the western CONUS with an area of strong high pressure within the Intermountain West. This will lead to benign weather conditions for much of the western CONUS on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday while a larger positively tilted trough develops across the Upper Midwest. This will accelerate a surface front south across the Midwest and toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Moisture will be limited along this frontal zone which will limit any thunderstorm potential with only some light, stratiform precipitation anticipated. Farther west, a strong mid-level trough will develop along the western CONUS with an area of strong high pressure within the Intermountain West. This will lead to benign weather conditions for much of the western CONUS on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday while a larger positively tilted trough develops across the Upper Midwest. This will accelerate a surface front south across the Midwest and toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Moisture will be limited along this frontal zone which will limit any thunderstorm potential with only some light, stratiform precipitation anticipated. Farther west, a strong mid-level trough will develop along the western CONUS with an area of strong high pressure within the Intermountain West. This will lead to benign weather conditions for much of the western CONUS on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday while a larger positively tilted trough develops across the Upper Midwest. This will accelerate a surface front south across the Midwest and toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Moisture will be limited along this frontal zone which will limit any thunderstorm potential with only some light, stratiform precipitation anticipated. Farther west, a strong mid-level trough will develop along the western CONUS with an area of strong high pressure within the Intermountain West. This will lead to benign weather conditions for much of the western CONUS on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday while a larger positively tilted trough develops across the Upper Midwest. This will accelerate a surface front south across the Midwest and toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Moisture will be limited along this frontal zone which will limit any thunderstorm potential with only some light, stratiform precipitation anticipated. Farther west, a strong mid-level trough will develop along the western CONUS with an area of strong high pressure within the Intermountain West. This will lead to benign weather conditions for much of the western CONUS on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ..Thornton.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ..Thornton.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more