Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds are forecast in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern New Mexico, with winds up to 20 MPH and relative humidity values dropping below 15%. Across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle, winds could reach as high as 25-30 MPH with relative humidity below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance across both regions suggests there is little support for wildfire ignition and spread, especially with some recent wetting rainfall across portions of Wyoming and Nebraska in the last 5 days. Given the lack of supportive fuels, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds are forecast in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern New Mexico, with winds up to 20 MPH and relative humidity values dropping below 15%. Across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle, winds could reach as high as 25-30 MPH with relative humidity below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance across both regions suggests there is little support for wildfire ignition and spread, especially with some recent wetting rainfall across portions of Wyoming and Nebraska in the last 5 days. Given the lack of supportive fuels, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds are forecast in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern New Mexico, with winds up to 20 MPH and relative humidity values dropping below 15%. Across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle, winds could reach as high as 25-30 MPH with relative humidity below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance across both regions suggests there is little support for wildfire ignition and spread, especially with some recent wetting rainfall across portions of Wyoming and Nebraska in the last 5 days. Given the lack of supportive fuels, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday evening/Monday night. ...South Florida and the Florida Keys... A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR, maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida. This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low for probabilities at this time. ...Northwest... A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday evening/Monday night. ...South Florida and the Florida Keys... A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR, maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida. This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low for probabilities at this time. ...Northwest... A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday evening/Monday night. ...South Florida and the Florida Keys... A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR, maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida. This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low for probabilities at this time. ...Northwest... A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday evening/Monday night. ...South Florida and the Florida Keys... A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR, maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida. This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low for probabilities at this time. ...Northwest... A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad fetch of west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern CONUS today, with the primary feature of interest being a southern-stream shortwave trough that will move from the southern Plains into the northwestern GOA. High pressure will remain over the southeastern states, which will limit northward moisture return at the surface. Given extensive cloud cover from the resulting moisture advection atop the surface stable layer, little if any heating is expected over those areas. As the shortwave trough continues eastward, low pressure will form south of the quasi-stationary front draped across the northern GOA, with a strong wind shift with the cold front behind the low. Widespread rain and elevated thunderstorms will exist over much of LA and into southern MS during the day, aided by southerly winds and theta-e advection at 850 mb. MUCAPE around 500 j/kg will be common over the northern Gulf Coast, although given largely saturated profiles, lapse rates may not favor much hail potential. As such, severe weather is not forecast, with widespread general thunderstorm activity centered over LA and into southern MS. Elsewhere, cooling aloft with a progressive wave will impact the Pacific Northwest late, with minimal instability supporting a few embedded/weak thunderstorms from the WA Cascades into western OR. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad fetch of west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern CONUS today, with the primary feature of interest being a southern-stream shortwave trough that will move from the southern Plains into the northwestern GOA. High pressure will remain over the southeastern states, which will limit northward moisture return at the surface. Given extensive cloud cover from the resulting moisture advection atop the surface stable layer, little if any heating is expected over those areas. As the shortwave trough continues eastward, low pressure will form south of the quasi-stationary front draped across the northern GOA, with a strong wind shift with the cold front behind the low. Widespread rain and elevated thunderstorms will exist over much of LA and into southern MS during the day, aided by southerly winds and theta-e advection at 850 mb. MUCAPE around 500 j/kg will be common over the northern Gulf Coast, although given largely saturated profiles, lapse rates may not favor much hail potential. As such, severe weather is not forecast, with widespread general thunderstorm activity centered over LA and into southern MS. Elsewhere, cooling aloft with a progressive wave will impact the Pacific Northwest late, with minimal instability supporting a few embedded/weak thunderstorms from the WA Cascades into western OR. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad fetch of west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern CONUS today, with the primary feature of interest being a southern-stream shortwave trough that will move from the southern Plains into the northwestern GOA. High pressure will remain over the southeastern states, which will limit northward moisture return at the surface. Given extensive cloud cover from the resulting moisture advection atop the surface stable layer, little if any heating is expected over those areas. As the shortwave trough continues eastward, low pressure will form south of the quasi-stationary front draped across the northern GOA, with a strong wind shift with the cold front behind the low. Widespread rain and elevated thunderstorms will exist over much of LA and into southern MS during the day, aided by southerly winds and theta-e advection at 850 mb. MUCAPE around 500 j/kg will be common over the northern Gulf Coast, although given largely saturated profiles, lapse rates may not favor much hail potential. As such, severe weather is not forecast, with widespread general thunderstorm activity centered over LA and into southern MS. Elsewhere, cooling aloft with a progressive wave will impact the Pacific Northwest late, with minimal instability supporting a few embedded/weak thunderstorms from the WA Cascades into western OR. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad fetch of west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern CONUS today, with the primary feature of interest being a southern-stream shortwave trough that will move from the southern Plains into the northwestern GOA. High pressure will remain over the southeastern states, which will limit northward moisture return at the surface. Given extensive cloud cover from the resulting moisture advection atop the surface stable layer, little if any heating is expected over those areas. As the shortwave trough continues eastward, low pressure will form south of the quasi-stationary front draped across the northern GOA, with a strong wind shift with the cold front behind the low. Widespread rain and elevated thunderstorms will exist over much of LA and into southern MS during the day, aided by southerly winds and theta-e advection at 850 mb. MUCAPE around 500 j/kg will be common over the northern Gulf Coast, although given largely saturated profiles, lapse rates may not favor much hail potential. As such, severe weather is not forecast, with widespread general thunderstorm activity centered over LA and into southern MS. Elsewhere, cooling aloft with a progressive wave will impact the Pacific Northwest late, with minimal instability supporting a few embedded/weak thunderstorms from the WA Cascades into western OR. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad fetch of west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern CONUS today, with the primary feature of interest being a southern-stream shortwave trough that will move from the southern Plains into the northwestern GOA. High pressure will remain over the southeastern states, which will limit northward moisture return at the surface. Given extensive cloud cover from the resulting moisture advection atop the surface stable layer, little if any heating is expected over those areas. As the shortwave trough continues eastward, low pressure will form south of the quasi-stationary front draped across the northern GOA, with a strong wind shift with the cold front behind the low. Widespread rain and elevated thunderstorms will exist over much of LA and into southern MS during the day, aided by southerly winds and theta-e advection at 850 mb. MUCAPE around 500 j/kg will be common over the northern Gulf Coast, although given largely saturated profiles, lapse rates may not favor much hail potential. As such, severe weather is not forecast, with widespread general thunderstorm activity centered over LA and into southern MS. Elsewhere, cooling aloft with a progressive wave will impact the Pacific Northwest late, with minimal instability supporting a few embedded/weak thunderstorms from the WA Cascades into western OR. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from southeast TX into the northwestern Gulf, well north of the surface front. Periodically strong storm cores have been noted, primarily offshore, with indications of small hail. Continued cooling aloft ahead of the shortwave trough moving across TX, as well as persistent southerly 850 mb winds, will maintain substantial elevated instability through Sunday morning. As such, a few strong storms, perhaps producing localized small hail, are expected from eastern TX into LA. While an isolated marginally severe report cannot be ruled out over land, the more robust convection is expected to remain over the Gulf. ..Jewell.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from southeast TX into the northwestern Gulf, well north of the surface front. Periodically strong storm cores have been noted, primarily offshore, with indications of small hail. Continued cooling aloft ahead of the shortwave trough moving across TX, as well as persistent southerly 850 mb winds, will maintain substantial elevated instability through Sunday morning. As such, a few strong storms, perhaps producing localized small hail, are expected from eastern TX into LA. While an isolated marginally severe report cannot be ruled out over land, the more robust convection is expected to remain over the Gulf. ..Jewell.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from southeast TX into the northwestern Gulf, well north of the surface front. Periodically strong storm cores have been noted, primarily offshore, with indications of small hail. Continued cooling aloft ahead of the shortwave trough moving across TX, as well as persistent southerly 850 mb winds, will maintain substantial elevated instability through Sunday morning. As such, a few strong storms, perhaps producing localized small hail, are expected from eastern TX into LA. While an isolated marginally severe report cannot be ruled out over land, the more robust convection is expected to remain over the Gulf. ..Jewell.. 02/23/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 22 22:16:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 22 22:16:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the remainder of February. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging across the western CONUS through the remainder of the month before a possible transition to a more progressive pattern (characterized by high amplitude trough intrusions into the Southwest) by early March. In the meantime, this synoptic regime will favor dry conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern Plains with light/scattered rain/snow chances elsewhere through the upcoming week. Additionally, a return to seasonal/above-seasonal temperatures is anticipated for much of the Southwest and High Plains, which should aid in gradual fuel drying where snow cover is minimal. Fire weather concerns could emerge across the southern High Plains where fuels have already been slowly drying (denoted by a slow uptick in ERCs) and winds may increase into the mid/upper teens early next week as low-amplitude upper disturbances pass over region. Deterministic solutions suggest that D3/Monday may see the best potential for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but spread in ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions. More robust fire weather concerns are possible beginning around D7/Friday and beyond as the upper-level regime becomes more progressive, but considerable spread in both deterministic and ensembles at this range limits forecast confidence. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the remainder of February. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging across the western CONUS through the remainder of the month before a possible transition to a more progressive pattern (characterized by high amplitude trough intrusions into the Southwest) by early March. In the meantime, this synoptic regime will favor dry conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern Plains with light/scattered rain/snow chances elsewhere through the upcoming week. Additionally, a return to seasonal/above-seasonal temperatures is anticipated for much of the Southwest and High Plains, which should aid in gradual fuel drying where snow cover is minimal. Fire weather concerns could emerge across the southern High Plains where fuels have already been slowly drying (denoted by a slow uptick in ERCs) and winds may increase into the mid/upper teens early next week as low-amplitude upper disturbances pass over region. Deterministic solutions suggest that D3/Monday may see the best potential for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but spread in ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions. More robust fire weather concerns are possible beginning around D7/Friday and beyond as the upper-level regime becomes more progressive, but considerable spread in both deterministic and ensembles at this range limits forecast confidence. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the remainder of February. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging across the western CONUS through the remainder of the month before a possible transition to a more progressive pattern (characterized by high amplitude trough intrusions into the Southwest) by early March. In the meantime, this synoptic regime will favor dry conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern Plains with light/scattered rain/snow chances elsewhere through the upcoming week. Additionally, a return to seasonal/above-seasonal temperatures is anticipated for much of the Southwest and High Plains, which should aid in gradual fuel drying where snow cover is minimal. Fire weather concerns could emerge across the southern High Plains where fuels have already been slowly drying (denoted by a slow uptick in ERCs) and winds may increase into the mid/upper teens early next week as low-amplitude upper disturbances pass over region. Deterministic solutions suggest that D3/Monday may see the best potential for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but spread in ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions. More robust fire weather concerns are possible beginning around D7/Friday and beyond as the upper-level regime becomes more progressive, but considerable spread in both deterministic and ensembles at this range limits forecast confidence. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more