Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the beginning of the forecast period, dry conditions will be prevalent across the entire Gulf basin. Southerly flow and some moisture return will begin Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front pushes dry air into the Gulf again early Thursday. This continued dry air across the Gulf will continue to limit moisture availability needed for any severe weather threat. Beyond D8/Sat there is a better signal for ridging across the central Plains and a return to quality low-level moisture across parts of Texas. However, until that time, severe weather potential will remain low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the beginning of the forecast period, dry conditions will be prevalent across the entire Gulf basin. Southerly flow and some moisture return will begin Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front pushes dry air into the Gulf again early Thursday. This continued dry air across the Gulf will continue to limit moisture availability needed for any severe weather threat. Beyond D8/Sat there is a better signal for ridging across the central Plains and a return to quality low-level moisture across parts of Texas. However, until that time, severe weather potential will remain low. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will traverse the Gulf and cross the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Some weak instability will be present which may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, particularly across the Keys and into far South Florida. While effective shear will be sufficient for organized convection (40-45 knots), weak lapse rates and relatively weak instability will likely inhibit the overall threat. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather remains unlikely. A strong mid-level jet and associated trough will move into the Northwest on Monday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability should develop for isolated lightning, particularly closer to the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will traverse the Gulf and cross the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Some weak instability will be present which may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, particularly across the Keys and into far South Florida. While effective shear will be sufficient for organized convection (40-45 knots), weak lapse rates and relatively weak instability will likely inhibit the overall threat. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather remains unlikely. A strong mid-level jet and associated trough will move into the Northwest on Monday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability should develop for isolated lightning, particularly closer to the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will traverse the Gulf and cross the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Some weak instability will be present which may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, particularly across the Keys and into far South Florida. While effective shear will be sufficient for organized convection (40-45 knots), weak lapse rates and relatively weak instability will likely inhibit the overall threat. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather remains unlikely. A strong mid-level jet and associated trough will move into the Northwest on Monday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability should develop for isolated lightning, particularly closer to the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will traverse the Gulf and cross the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Some weak instability will be present which may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, particularly across the Keys and into far South Florida. While effective shear will be sufficient for organized convection (40-45 knots), weak lapse rates and relatively weak instability will likely inhibit the overall threat. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather remains unlikely. A strong mid-level jet and associated trough will move into the Northwest on Monday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability should develop for isolated lightning, particularly closer to the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will traverse the Gulf and cross the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Some weak instability will be present which may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, particularly across the Keys and into far South Florida. While effective shear will be sufficient for organized convection (40-45 knots), weak lapse rates and relatively weak instability will likely inhibit the overall threat. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather remains unlikely. A strong mid-level jet and associated trough will move into the Northwest on Monday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability should develop for isolated lightning, particularly closer to the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will traverse the Gulf and cross the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Some weak instability will be present which may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, particularly across the Keys and into far South Florida. While effective shear will be sufficient for organized convection (40-45 knots), weak lapse rates and relatively weak instability will likely inhibit the overall threat. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather remains unlikely. A strong mid-level jet and associated trough will move into the Northwest on Monday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability should develop for isolated lightning, particularly closer to the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are expected to arrive after 12Z. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are expected to arrive after 12Z. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are expected to arrive after 12Z. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are expected to arrive after 12Z. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are expected to arrive after 12Z. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce at least small hail. ...Synopsis and Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over much of the central and eastern states, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft. Within the southern stream, a shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains late, with cooling aloft spreading into TX and toward the Sabine Valley into Sunday morning. While the surface air mass will remain cool and stable, elevated instability will develop ahead of this feature, aided by southerly 850 mb winds over 30 kt. Precipitation including thunderstorms should develop over eastern TX during the afternoon and evening, and spread eastward across LA overnight. MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will develop over eastern TX from evening into the overnight, with increasing deep-layer shear through the cloud-bearing layer. Model forecast soundings vary with degree of instability, lapse rate and shear combinations, but cool sub-cloud layers will favor minimal melting of any hail that does develop. At this time it appears most hail will be below severe limits, with sporadic strong cores within the larger precipitation shield. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce at least small hail. ...Synopsis and Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over much of the central and eastern states, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft. Within the southern stream, a shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains late, with cooling aloft spreading into TX and toward the Sabine Valley into Sunday morning. While the surface air mass will remain cool and stable, elevated instability will develop ahead of this feature, aided by southerly 850 mb winds over 30 kt. Precipitation including thunderstorms should develop over eastern TX during the afternoon and evening, and spread eastward across LA overnight. MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will develop over eastern TX from evening into the overnight, with increasing deep-layer shear through the cloud-bearing layer. Model forecast soundings vary with degree of instability, lapse rate and shear combinations, but cool sub-cloud layers will favor minimal melting of any hail that does develop. At this time it appears most hail will be below severe limits, with sporadic strong cores within the larger precipitation shield. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce at least small hail. ...Synopsis and Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over much of the central and eastern states, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft. Within the southern stream, a shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains late, with cooling aloft spreading into TX and toward the Sabine Valley into Sunday morning. While the surface air mass will remain cool and stable, elevated instability will develop ahead of this feature, aided by southerly 850 mb winds over 30 kt. Precipitation including thunderstorms should develop over eastern TX during the afternoon and evening, and spread eastward across LA overnight. MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will develop over eastern TX from evening into the overnight, with increasing deep-layer shear through the cloud-bearing layer. Model forecast soundings vary with degree of instability, lapse rate and shear combinations, but cool sub-cloud layers will favor minimal melting of any hail that does develop. At this time it appears most hail will be below severe limits, with sporadic strong cores within the larger precipitation shield. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce at least small hail. ...Synopsis and Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over much of the central and eastern states, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft. Within the southern stream, a shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains late, with cooling aloft spreading into TX and toward the Sabine Valley into Sunday morning. While the surface air mass will remain cool and stable, elevated instability will develop ahead of this feature, aided by southerly 850 mb winds over 30 kt. Precipitation including thunderstorms should develop over eastern TX during the afternoon and evening, and spread eastward across LA overnight. MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will develop over eastern TX from evening into the overnight, with increasing deep-layer shear through the cloud-bearing layer. Model forecast soundings vary with degree of instability, lapse rate and shear combinations, but cool sub-cloud layers will favor minimal melting of any hail that does develop. At this time it appears most hail will be below severe limits, with sporadic strong cores within the larger precipitation shield. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce at least small hail. ...Synopsis and Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over much of the central and eastern states, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft. Within the southern stream, a shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains late, with cooling aloft spreading into TX and toward the Sabine Valley into Sunday morning. While the surface air mass will remain cool and stable, elevated instability will develop ahead of this feature, aided by southerly 850 mb winds over 30 kt. Precipitation including thunderstorms should develop over eastern TX during the afternoon and evening, and spread eastward across LA overnight. MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will develop over eastern TX from evening into the overnight, with increasing deep-layer shear through the cloud-bearing layer. Model forecast soundings vary with degree of instability, lapse rate and shear combinations, but cool sub-cloud layers will favor minimal melting of any hail that does develop. At this time it appears most hail will be below severe limits, with sporadic strong cores within the larger precipitation shield. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more