Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Arklatex to southern Illinois... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to this region. Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the disturbance. Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL. Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts into this region. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025 Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-137-151-207-235-253-267-307-319-327- 353-399-411-413-417-431-435-441-447-451-465-040640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT EDWARDS FISHER HASKELL IRION JONES KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0387 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0387 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Portions of southwest and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 040339Z - 040545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase by 06Z across portions of southwest and central Texas. Large hail will be the primary concern, though severe wind gusts and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out. A watch will likely be issued within the hour. DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery loops and VWP data depict a midlevel impulse advancing northeastward across northern Mexico -- within the base of an amplified larger-scale trough over the West. In response, 850-700-mb warm advection will continue strengthening across southwest into central TX over the next few hours. This is already supporting isolated thunderstorms along the western edge of a steep midlevel lapse rate plume and related buoyancy (see latest SAT ACARS soundings). As the large-scale ascent continues spreading eastward, a rapid increase in thunderstorm development is expected within the steeper lapse rates, where 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE (higher farther south) and 70+ kt of effective shear will favor organized thunderstorms including supercells. Most of these storms will be developing north of the surface-based instability and should remain elevated with a risk of large hail. However, any storms that develop farther south along the boundary may be near-surface-based, posing an additional risk of severe wind gusts and a tornado -- given ample low-level shear/clockwise-curved hodographs. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area within the hour. ..Weinman/Hart.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 29700203 30160213 31620180 32440144 32850099 33090040 33149985 32969923 32449894 31849892 31089902 30469931 29830001 29480067 29370121 29700203 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0110 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0386 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0386 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...parts of western Kentucky...western Tennessee...far northeastern Arkansas...far southern Illinois...and far southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 040158Z - 040330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Elevated storms capable of large hail are possible this evening across parts of the lower Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley. A watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing near the Mississippi River have displayed lowered correlation coefficient and near-0 differential reflectivity colocated with large reflectivity, which are signs of large hail production. These storms are elevated above a cool boundary layer but have approximately 1000 J/kg MUCAPE per mesoanalysis, which is sufficient buoyancy for hail production. Also, most of this buoyancy is above the freezing level per short-term RAP profiles. Hodographs above the surface stable layer display strong deep-layer shear (60+ kts effective bulk shear). Some limiting factors for severe hail may be the lack of steep lapse rates and therefore the relatively skinny buoyancy profiles. Additionally, buoyancy decreases with eastward extent, which may limit the longevity of the hail risk. However, given recent radar trends, a watch a may be needed to cover the hail risk. ..Supinie/Hart.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35258929 35568992 36229039 36639018 37308847 38048617 38238513 38058480 37718473 37028576 36358676 35298885 35258929 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0385 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northeast Arkansas into far southeast Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 040056Z - 040200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat appears to have decreased across much of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108, though isolated severe hail remains possible across portions of northeast Arkansas into far southeast Missouri. DISCUSSION...The latest regional VWP data suggests that the core of the southwesterly low-level jet is advancing eastward away from the watch area, and this seems to be favoring a decrease in overall thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Nevertheless, the LZK 00Z sounding sampled 56 kt of effective shear and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates above the cool/stable boundary layer (yielding around 1700 J/kg MUCAPE). This will continue to support elevated supercell structures capable of producing isolated severe hail. This risk should generally be greatest across the eastern portion of the watch area, and extending northeastward into far southeast MO/northwest MS/southwest KY -- where the aforementioned low-level jet will tend to focus thunderstorm activity. While isolated severe hail potential will persist northeast of the watch, the downstream severe risk appears too localized/marginal for an additional watch at this time, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 34699284 35219258 35769212 36759039 36888980 36788920 36558908 36188934 34569171 34449252 34699284 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HOP TO 35 ESE MKL TO 50 E PBF. ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC077-107-040240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE PHILLIPS KYC131-040240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LESLIE MSC033-093-137-143-040240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO MARSHALL TATE TUNICA Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HOP TO 35 ESE MKL TO 50 E PBF. ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC077-107-040240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE PHILLIPS KYC131-040240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LESLIE MSC033-093-137-143-040240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO MARSHALL TATE TUNICA Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HOP TO 35 ESE MKL TO 50 E PBF. ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC077-107-040240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE PHILLIPS KYC131-040240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LESLIE MSC033-093-137-143-040240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO MARSHALL TATE TUNICA Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HOP TO 35 ESE MKL TO 50 E PBF. ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC077-107-040240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE PHILLIPS KYC131-040240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LESLIE MSC033-093-137-143-040240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO MARSHALL TATE TUNICA Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HOP TO 35 ESE MKL TO 50 E PBF. ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC077-107-040240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE PHILLIPS KYC131-040240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LESLIE MSC033-093-137-143-040240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO MARSHALL TATE TUNICA Read more

WW 107 TORNADO AR KY MS TN 031750Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas South-central and Southeast Kentucky Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells are expected to develop this afternoon near a boundary that extends generally southwest-to-northeast across the region. A moist environment and strong low-level shear will support tornado potential aside from damaging winds and hail. The severe/tornado risk could persist well through the evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Memphis TN to 15 miles southeast of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more