Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region. After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to the MS Valley on Day 8/Thu. During this time, lee low development over the southern Plains will result in strengthening southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf. Increasing moisture return ahead of the eastward developing low and attendant cold front will likely result in thunderstorm development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South vicinity on Day 8/Thu. While some severe potential could become favorable in this pattern, uncertainty regarding northward extent of moisture return, and timing of key features at this longer time range, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region. After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to the MS Valley on Day 8/Thu. During this time, lee low development over the southern Plains will result in strengthening southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf. Increasing moisture return ahead of the eastward developing low and attendant cold front will likely result in thunderstorm development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South vicinity on Day 8/Thu. While some severe potential could become favorable in this pattern, uncertainty regarding northward extent of moisture return, and timing of key features at this longer time range, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region. After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to the MS Valley on Day 8/Thu. During this time, lee low development over the southern Plains will result in strengthening southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf. Increasing moisture return ahead of the eastward developing low and attendant cold front will likely result in thunderstorm development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South vicinity on Day 8/Thu. While some severe potential could become favorable in this pattern, uncertainty regarding northward extent of moisture return, and timing of key features at this longer time range, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region. After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to the MS Valley on Day 8/Thu. During this time, lee low development over the southern Plains will result in strengthening southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf. Increasing moisture return ahead of the eastward developing low and attendant cold front will likely result in thunderstorm development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South vicinity on Day 8/Thu. While some severe potential could become favorable in this pattern, uncertainty regarding northward extent of moisture return, and timing of key features at this longer time range, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the middle and upper Texas coastal vicinity Saturday evening into early Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will shift east from AZ into the southern Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure and a cool airmass will persist over the southern Plains and Gulf coast. However, increasing southwesterly midlevel flow and midlevel moistening is expected as the shortwave trough ejects eastward. Warm advection atop the cool boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse rates will result in increasing precipitation chances from late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the middle and upper TX coastal vicinity. Sufficient elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) will exist to support isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the middle and upper Texas coastal vicinity Saturday evening into early Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will shift east from AZ into the southern Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure and a cool airmass will persist over the southern Plains and Gulf coast. However, increasing southwesterly midlevel flow and midlevel moistening is expected as the shortwave trough ejects eastward. Warm advection atop the cool boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse rates will result in increasing precipitation chances from late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the middle and upper TX coastal vicinity. Sufficient elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) will exist to support isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the middle and upper Texas coastal vicinity Saturday evening into early Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will shift east from AZ into the southern Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure and a cool airmass will persist over the southern Plains and Gulf coast. However, increasing southwesterly midlevel flow and midlevel moistening is expected as the shortwave trough ejects eastward. Warm advection atop the cool boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse rates will result in increasing precipitation chances from late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the middle and upper TX coastal vicinity. Sufficient elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) will exist to support isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the middle and upper Texas coastal vicinity Saturday evening into early Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will shift east from AZ into the southern Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure and a cool airmass will persist over the southern Plains and Gulf coast. However, increasing southwesterly midlevel flow and midlevel moistening is expected as the shortwave trough ejects eastward. Warm advection atop the cool boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse rates will result in increasing precipitation chances from late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the middle and upper TX coastal vicinity. Sufficient elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) will exist to support isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the middle and upper Texas coastal vicinity Saturday evening into early Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will shift east from AZ into the southern Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure and a cool airmass will persist over the southern Plains and Gulf coast. However, increasing southwesterly midlevel flow and midlevel moistening is expected as the shortwave trough ejects eastward. Warm advection atop the cool boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse rates will result in increasing precipitation chances from late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the middle and upper TX coastal vicinity. Sufficient elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) will exist to support isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more