Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 20 23:18:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential is expected to remain low across the CONUS through the middle of next week as a large area of surface high pressure remains entrenched over the central U.S. through this weekend. Critical fire weather concerns may eventually emerge over the Plains by Day 7/Wednesday as a lee surface low deepens. However, poor run-to-run model consistency and associated uncertainty regarding the timing/location of key features at this longer time range precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential is expected to remain low across the CONUS through the middle of next week as a large area of surface high pressure remains entrenched over the central U.S. through this weekend. Critical fire weather concerns may eventually emerge over the Plains by Day 7/Wednesday as a lee surface low deepens. However, poor run-to-run model consistency and associated uncertainty regarding the timing/location of key features at this longer time range precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential is expected to remain low across the CONUS through the middle of next week as a large area of surface high pressure remains entrenched over the central U.S. through this weekend. Critical fire weather concerns may eventually emerge over the Plains by Day 7/Wednesday as a lee surface low deepens. However, poor run-to-run model consistency and associated uncertainty regarding the timing/location of key features at this longer time range precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential is expected to remain low across the CONUS through the middle of next week as a large area of surface high pressure remains entrenched over the central U.S. through this weekend. Critical fire weather concerns may eventually emerge over the Plains by Day 7/Wednesday as a lee surface low deepens. However, poor run-to-run model consistency and associated uncertainty regarding the timing/location of key features at this longer time range precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. At least some risk of hail may eventually develop. ...Synopsis... A general northwest flow regime will remain from the northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic, with a southern-stream westerly flow regime from the southern Plains into the Southeast. A compact upper low is forecast to move from AZ/NM across the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this feature, southerly winds around 850 mb will bring moisture northward in an elevated sense, while the surface air mass remains cool/stable over land due to high pressure over the Southeast. As the upper feature interacts with the midlevel moisture plume from the western Gulf into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys, elevated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg may develop, supporting scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings reveal steep lapse rates above 600 mb, with enough effective shear to sustain a few strong storms. Given cold boundary-layer temperatures, at least small hail appears likely. Isolated hail over 1.00" cannot be ruled out, though confidence is not great enough to introduce a risk area this far out for this type of regime. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. At least some risk of hail may eventually develop. ...Synopsis... A general northwest flow regime will remain from the northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic, with a southern-stream westerly flow regime from the southern Plains into the Southeast. A compact upper low is forecast to move from AZ/NM across the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this feature, southerly winds around 850 mb will bring moisture northward in an elevated sense, while the surface air mass remains cool/stable over land due to high pressure over the Southeast. As the upper feature interacts with the midlevel moisture plume from the western Gulf into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys, elevated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg may develop, supporting scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings reveal steep lapse rates above 600 mb, with enough effective shear to sustain a few strong storms. Given cold boundary-layer temperatures, at least small hail appears likely. Isolated hail over 1.00" cannot be ruled out, though confidence is not great enough to introduce a risk area this far out for this type of regime. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. At least some risk of hail may eventually develop. ...Synopsis... A general northwest flow regime will remain from the northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic, with a southern-stream westerly flow regime from the southern Plains into the Southeast. A compact upper low is forecast to move from AZ/NM across the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this feature, southerly winds around 850 mb will bring moisture northward in an elevated sense, while the surface air mass remains cool/stable over land due to high pressure over the Southeast. As the upper feature interacts with the midlevel moisture plume from the western Gulf into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys, elevated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg may develop, supporting scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings reveal steep lapse rates above 600 mb, with enough effective shear to sustain a few strong storms. Given cold boundary-layer temperatures, at least small hail appears likely. Isolated hail over 1.00" cannot be ruled out, though confidence is not great enough to introduce a risk area this far out for this type of regime. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. At least some risk of hail may eventually develop. ...Synopsis... A general northwest flow regime will remain from the northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic, with a southern-stream westerly flow regime from the southern Plains into the Southeast. A compact upper low is forecast to move from AZ/NM across the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this feature, southerly winds around 850 mb will bring moisture northward in an elevated sense, while the surface air mass remains cool/stable over land due to high pressure over the Southeast. As the upper feature interacts with the midlevel moisture plume from the western Gulf into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys, elevated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg may develop, supporting scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings reveal steep lapse rates above 600 mb, with enough effective shear to sustain a few strong storms. Given cold boundary-layer temperatures, at least small hail appears likely. Isolated hail over 1.00" cannot be ruled out, though confidence is not great enough to introduce a risk area this far out for this type of regime. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. At least some risk of hail may eventually develop. ...Synopsis... A general northwest flow regime will remain from the northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic, with a southern-stream westerly flow regime from the southern Plains into the Southeast. A compact upper low is forecast to move from AZ/NM across the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this feature, southerly winds around 850 mb will bring moisture northward in an elevated sense, while the surface air mass remains cool/stable over land due to high pressure over the Southeast. As the upper feature interacts with the midlevel moisture plume from the western Gulf into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys, elevated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg may develop, supporting scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings reveal steep lapse rates above 600 mb, with enough effective shear to sustain a few strong storms. Given cold boundary-layer temperatures, at least small hail appears likely. Isolated hail over 1.00" cannot be ruled out, though confidence is not great enough to introduce a risk area this far out for this type of regime. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather conditions are expected to remain low across the CONUS tomorrow (Day 2/Friday). Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather conditions are expected to remain low across the CONUS tomorrow (Day 2/Friday). Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather conditions are expected to remain low across the CONUS tomorrow (Day 2/Friday). Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather conditions are expected to remain low across the CONUS tomorrow (Day 2/Friday). Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more